David Karpa

Apply to Bocconi-Columbia Conference by December 15

⏰Conference Alert⏰ Third Bocconi-Columbia Conference in Political Science and Political Economy, June 8th and 9th, 2027 @Bocconi Organizers: @aalrababah.bsky.social @gemmadipoppa.bsky.social Shigeo Hirano @ginvernizzi.bsky.social and I Submit here by Dec 15, 2026: forms.gle/AQ8sxjoHHyik...

Two new R packages from me addressing the changing data environment with data increasingly being closed off from programmatic access. {safeconduct} provides passage to data encumbered by browser checks, r2parquet facilitates self-hosting of (encumbered) data.

Noch bis 31.10. Abstracts für den @dvpw.bsky.social-Kongress 2027 einreichen! Panel 996: „Die Transformation der politischen Mitte“ Wie gehen Mitte-Rechts-Parteien mit der radikalen Rechten um? @fabioellger.bsky.social und ich freuen uns auf weitere spannende Beiträge!

📣 Call for abstracts: Panel “Causal Inference with Observational Data” @dvpwkongress.bsky.social #dvpw2027 in Leipzig, 7–10 Sep 2027. ▶️ Submit your abstract by 31 Oct 2026: www.dvpw.de/dvpw2027/en/... ℹ️ Panel organized by SekMethoden. Thanks to Susanna Wirthgen for serving as discussant 🙌

⌛ Nur noch diese Woche könnt ihr Abstracts für unser #dvpw2027 Panel zum Einfluss von Rechtsaußenparteien auf die Demokratie & wirksamen Gegenmaßnahmen einreichen. 📝 Man munkelt: gar nicht mal so ein unwichtiges Thema - und Leipzig ist auch prima! ✨ @mlewandowsky.bsky.social @dvpw.bsky.social

Sie forschen zur Etablierung der radikalen Rechten, zu Umgang, Gegenstrategien und Brandmauern? Dann ist diese Woche noch Gelegenheit, einen Paper-Vorschlag für das von Anna-Sophie Heinze und mir geleitete Panel beim DVPW-Kongress 2027 in Leipzig einzureichen! 👇🏻

Five days left to submit!

Fantastic news -- no mean feat especially when we consider how difficult it is for voters to sanction semi- or anti-democratic incumbents like Vucic! The figure below is my summary of the different ways that the lit documents in which the chain from anti-democratic signal to sanctioning can break.

R

.@eastangliabylines.co.uk referenced the article by @alexanderhorn.bsky.social & @leoahrens.bsky.social, 'The Equality Positions and Policies of Governments, 1970–2020: How Egalitarian Parties Evoke Equality While Evading Real Redistribution' here - https://cup.org/4hnubxK #OpenAccess

New paper by our economist Anna Matzner et al. 🌍 Climate change is not only hurting economic growth, but driving up public debt. A 0.1% rise in local temperatures can increase public debt by up to 6.3% in 6 years. Poorer countries hit hardest, widening global inequality. wiiw.ac.at/fiscal-conse...

Wäre kommenden Sonntag Bundestagswahl, würden CDU/CSU laut Umfragen rund ein Drittel ihrer Stimmen verlieren. Doch welche Wähler wenden sich ab und kann die Union sie zurückgewinnen? Ein paar Zahlen aus Paneldaten seit Februar 2025. Ein Thread 🧵 (und hier als Text) juliuskoelzer.de/union-verlus...

oh no poor marc

proud of this piece coming tomorrow www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-10-22...

Do you run #behavioural #psychology #experiments? Have you tried creating #JavaScript experiments with jsPsych but for stumped by all the coding needed? I've been working on Tachisto, a #jsPsych builder that should require little or no code. Give it a go and let me know! www.capro.dev/tachisto/

🚨🚨 Publication day! Very happy to see this piece finally in print! I show that partisan elite discourse can shape citizens' understandings of democracy. Link to the paper: drive.google.com/file/d/1RP8V...

Corruption math for defense contractors laid bare What you give: $40k for meeting + $100k in follow-on campaign donations What you can get: $10 million defense contract 71x return on investment propublica.org/article/navatek-lindsey-graham-jim-clyburn-fbi-anti-corruption-bribery

This study finds that inflation triggered by conflict in the Middle East disproportionately affects low-income households in Germany. The lowest decile of the income distribution faces purchasing-power losses of up to 2.87% of disposable income vs. 0.65% for highest income decile

Modeling the labor market and public budget effects of immigration finds that inflows in Europe and US in 2019–2024 mostly increased welfare of natives, from Michele Battisti, Giovanni Peri, and Eleonora Romano www.nber.org/papers/w35901

U.S. foreign policy is now nakedly tilted towards advancing oligarchic interests meduza.io/en/news/2026...

I’m very honoured to have my solo-authored article, which is also part of my book project, published in the American Journal of Political Science. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

@tabouchadi.bsky.social und ich schlagen einen neuen Blick auf das Verhältnis von Arbeiter:innen und AfD vor. Die Arbeiterklasse ist nicht nach rechts gerückt. Stattdessen wurde ihr rechter Flügel mobilisiert, ihr linker demobilisiert. Für linke Parteien birgt das strategische Potenziale. Mehr hier:

"Für linke Parteien ist dieser Perspektivwechsel von strategischer Relevanz, weil sich so erklärt, warum der Versuch, Arbeiter durch einen konservativen Turn 'zurückzuholen' nie funktioniert (...)", so @lwestheuser.bsky.social ergänzend bei LinkedIn. Danke dafür.

Another adjacent @jdcmedlock.bsky.social essential hit

Does crime mobilize or demobilize? Scholarship disagrees, partly because studies measure crime and participation differently. In our new @apsrjournal.bsky.social paper, we test 3 measures of crime exposure against both electoral and non-electoral participation using validated turnout data.

📢 We're hiring! 3-year postdoc position, starting Feb/March 2027 We're looking for someone with: - research agenda on political representation, party competition, institutions, political economy, political behavior or related fields - ability to teach Austrian politics Please share widely!

📢New paper in @thejop.bsky.social on the reciprocal nature of citizens’ support for democratic transgressions. Together with Hannah Werner & @annakern.bsky.social , we show that when confronted with violations by political opponents, citizens’ support for transgressions by their own side doubles!

Lots of people asked me about this over the past days - this is a helpful analysis.

this is literally what's going on in most Western democracies, that is, the inability to address the actual™ problems

Ireland -- including being a tax haven -- really tries to milk citizens for the profit of private companies

In a new paper in "Intereconomics", I analyse how the reformed EU fiscal rules framework treats public investment and whether it provides sufficient fiscal space to support Europe’s green and digital transitions. I discuss five options for expanding fiscal space for strategic investment.

Hi all! I'm looking for people to try out my new collaborative writing platform. Think: Overleaf or GDocs for Mkdown LaTeX HTML Typst Quarto Free, open source, and full-featured. Many editors, chat, comments, track changes, history, AI, mobile, templates, etc Would ❤️ any feedback! librepaper.org

Now on LPE blog - the core ideas of the book. Stay tuned for the comments followed by a replique

“Build blazingly fast R packages with Rust” The {extendr} 📦 suite “provides developer-first tooling and support for publishing to CRAN.” #RStats #rust extendr.rs

available ~upon request~

Very happy to share our new work. Do our eye movements reveal how we structure information in working memory? We found that eye movements adapt to memory demands, shifting from sequential sampling during encoding to replay-like revisitation during maintenance. dx.plos.org/10.1371/jour...

such an important paper!

Super excited to see this article in print in the APSR: 📚 “Public Service Decline and Support for the Populist Right: Evidence from England’s National Health Service” - with the brilliant @zachdickson.bsky.social @catherinedevries.bsky.social @simonecremaschi.bsky.social doi.org/10.1017/S000...

This is one of the really important signs of democratic decline. 👇

This is a wonderful study @lwestheuser.bsky.social & Koen Damhuis, showing the unique contribution qualitative research can make to a field dominated by quantitative studies (but, of course, created by qualitative scholars). 👏

How immigration can make essential services more affordable: Our new study on German elder care shows that hiring foreign caregivers significantly lowers nursing home prices for families, without cutting care quality or staffing levels.

Many said this in past weeks. Now NYT too ‘AI programs are not human; they are human creations. Their complexity does not diminish the responsibility of their creators. If the programs cannot be trusted to work within the law, the companies should not release them’ 🎯 www.nytimes.com/2026/10/10/o...

very much work in progress -- currently written-up only for the UK surveys | soon including German data

Looking forward to kicking off the LSE's brand-new Political Methodology seminar! I will present new work with @tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social and Andrey Tkachenko on detecting batch-generated responses in survey data delivered by third-party vendors. Get in touch for the Zoom link or the draft.

Ever wondered what attributes are relevant in your conjoint experiment? And what assumptions you need to estimate it? Asya and I got you covered. In a new working paper we propose the APNS: the probability that an attribute's level change is necessary and sufficient for the selection of a profile.