ElectionCord

NOW OUT: I wanted to discuss the always fun topic of polling misses, and how there could be a reasonable case made for misses for both parties, or no one! LINK: electioncord.com/the-case-for...

QOTD: Give me your Governor predictions for: Alabama Alaska Arizona Georgia Florida Iowa Kansas Nebraska Maine Michigan Nevada New York Ohio South Carolina Texas Or any other Gov races you are interested in!

ICYMI 👇

(H/t to @electioncord.com for the GB tracking average. They provide so many other averages and other resources like Tabula America where you can break down the nation in State Leg Districts and Media Markets!!)

Im here to report that it broke our brains, CornCob rage quit

Marist poll dropping in a minute!

Starting in about 15 minutes!

I would really love if we could sponsor a poll, since it seems like everyone else has no interest in polling a week out. The only problem? It's extremely expensive, because of response rates being so low. I wouldn't know the exact figure, but it would likely be thousands of dollars to sponsor a poll

We are going to be streaming for a little bit for the Marist Poll drop starting around 11:30 PM EST. We are trying to get to 25 followers to reach affiliate, so help us out and drop a follow! LINK: www.twitch.tv/electioncord

We are going to be streaming for a little bit for the Marist Poll drop starting around 11:30 PM EST. We are trying to get to 25 followers to reach affiliate, so help us out and drop a follow! LINK: www.twitch.tv/electioncord

Here are how the 2022 Governors elections went by state. I won't go through every state's margin (you can just check that out at electioncord.com/suffragium/), but I will note that Iowa was R+18.6, and we could be looking at a double digit Dem victory in 2026!

I found the Miami-Dade voting habits over the weekend very weird, appears we know why: they didn't process mail-in ballots over the weekend. So if you were wondering why Miami-Dade was more Republican over the weekend than today, here you go

Here are the Senate results for 2020. Note that Arizona had a special election, and the GA race on the map is Ossoff's. Margins of note: MN: D+5.2 MI: D+1.7 ----- NC: R+1.8 IA: R+6.6 ME: R+8.6 TX: R+9.9 MS: R+10 SC: R+10.4 KS: R+11.5 LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

ITS HAPPENING

What do we need more polling for? I'd say South Carolina, Mississippi, Kansas, and Minnesota

Trump Net Approval by Issue: General: -26.5 Economy: -37.6 Inflation: -51.3 International Trade: -32.3 Healthcare: -30.3 Foreign Policy: -30.2 Immigration: -16.1 LINK: electioncord.com/poll-tracker/

Prediction markets are about as accurate as just asking some people what they think, in other words, it isn't really that accurate! Public opinion frequently gets things wrong, so that leads to these prediction markets doing the same thing. Shoutout anyone who didn't sell out

I do kind of wonder what would happen if the US had a runoff system for President. Would Harris have been able to win?

Lula's secret? It could be that he has a hat on in the picture they're using for election results. Maybe Democrats need to wear more hats to ensure victory...

Trump Net Approval by Issue: General: -26.5 Economy: -37.6 Inflation: -51.3 International Trade: -32.3 Healthcare: -30.3 Foreign Policy: -30.2 Immigration: -16.1 LINK: electioncord.com/poll-tracker/

One big difference between Texas and Florida, is just how many more areas in Florida are white non-educated than in Texas, which tend to be very R-leaning. By 100K District, areas that are white and non-college educated: Florida: 74/215 (34.4%) Texas: 63/291 (21.6%) LINK: electioncord.com/genus/

Here are our estimated benchmarks for Ohio statewide, using 2024 Pres as a baseline. While Dems will still get crushed in the rurals, there are some counties that could be indicative of a flip, particularly in NE Ohio. I'd watch Mahoning on E-Day. LINK: electioncord.com/permutator/

From the new CBS/YouGov poll: out of the people that said they definitely were not going to vote in 2026, 37% said basically, they hate both sides, 20% said they don't think their vote matters, but the biggest piece of the pie? The non-carers, at 43%. LINK: assets1.cbsnewsstatic.com/hub/cms/prod...

Not that I think party ID for early voting is indicative of any outcome, but the Florida numbers are certainly interesting: 2024 (Up to the first sunday of EV): Rep: 44.9% Dem: 34.1% Other: 21.0% (R+10.8) 2026 Rep: 39.6% Dem: 39.8% Other: 20.6% (D+0.2) (Yes this is a re-post)

I only ask because I was kind of bored and started creating this. I do love sports, so especially when there aren't many elections going on, might be good to have something else for you guys to enjoy from us

Chriswithhans is right, Red Wave incoming /s

I only ask because I was kind of bored and started creating this. I do love sports, so especially when there aren't many elections going on, might be good to have something else for you guys to enjoy from us

QOTD: How interested would you be if we expanded beyond political analysis/stats, and ventured into sports analytics as well? Is there any overlap in your mind?

You know, you can see why Obama quickly rose up the ranks of the government, he is a generational speaker. Maybe it's just seeing this compared to Trump, but he's articulate, punchy, and when he talks, it *gasps* makes sense

State Averages: Texas (13 Polls) Sen: Talarico (D) +3 Gov: Abbott (R) +2 Ohio (8 Polls) Sen: Brown (D) +5 Gov: Acton (D) +5 Iowa (8 Polls) Sen: Turek (D) +1 Gov: Sand (D) +9 Maine (6 Polls) Sen: Jackson (D) +2 Gov: Pingree (D) +12 LINK: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

ICYMI: Here is our full conversation with J Miles Coleman from Crystal Ball, where we talk about ratings changes, ET Legends, and more! LINK: www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRnJ...

ICYMI: Here is our full conversation with J Miles Coleman from Crystal Ball, where we talk about ratings changes, ET Legends, and more! LINK: www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRnJ...

Surprised no one saw this, the majority of people in... South Dakota disapprove of Trump according to an Emerson poll.

Generic Ballot Averages by Demographic: General: D+9 Dems: D+90 Indies: D+19 Reps: R+84 Non-College: D+2 College: D+17 White: R+5 Black: D+64 Hispanic: D+22 18-29: D+30 30-44: D+17 45-64: D+1 65+: R+1 LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...

We wrote a similar article last month on Democrats largely dying off or deactivating @electioncord.com electioncord.com/how-white-fl...

Polling Update: Generic Ballot: D+9.1 1 Month Ago: D+8.5 3 Months Ago: D+5.3 Trump Net Approval: -27.8% 1 Month Ago: -24.2% 3 Months Ago: -20.3% LINKS: electioncord.com/generic-ball... electioncord.com/poll-tracker/

We will have other special guests, so follow now, and we will be going on E-day from 6PM to uh... when we know at the very least what broadly happened If we get 25 followers, we reach affiliate, we are only 7 followers away!

Polling Update: Generic Ballot: D+9.1 1 Month Ago: D+8.5 3 Months Ago: D+5.3 Trump Net Approval: -27.8% 1 Month Ago: -24.2% 3 Months Ago: -20.3% LINKS: electioncord.com/generic-ball... electioncord.com/poll-tracker/

Also in that poll, a far more important question: how do you store your ketchup?

According to a YouGov/UMass Lowell poll released today, 58% of people would support a law banning online or app-based sports gambling and prediction markets (Kalshi/Polymarket was a listed example).

What we are seeing in polls is that, a lot of low prop demographics seem to be shifting hard to Democrats, but the question is, do they end up voting? This, and whether or not on the fence Rep-leaning Trump disapprovers end up voting, will decide the Senate.

We do plan to do a stream on election day, in fact, that's why we started doing Tuesday streams, to practice I guess. My question is, will you guys tune in to us, or someone else? Or rather, what would make you want to tune in to us

NEWS: The website and social media accounts for pollster SoCal Strategies have been taken offline after FiftyPlusOne reached out to the firm Tuesday to verify data quality and potential ties to Wedgewood Polls, which admitted to fabricating data this week. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/more-polls...

The SCSenate race has the potential to be competitive this year. These are the estimated benchmarks Annie Andrews would have to hit to squeak out a D+0.01% win. Look early for Berkeley/Dorchester Counties near Charleston, if she is winning both, she's in it. LINK: electioncord.com/permutator/

QOTD: Who are some guests we could have on in the future on the ElectionCast? (that are reasonable)

ElectionCord does not: Partner with gambling books Partner with prediction markets Has actual human writers for all its articles If you wanna support us, follow us, and consider donating (which you can do on our website)!