World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther

After the midterms, Bluesky becomes a dating app for lawyers on January 1, 2027. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

12m

Interesting

Political Poll Bot@pollresults.org

Texas US Senate Oct 13 - 21, 2026 James Talarico (D) 50% (+5.0%) Ken Paxton (R) 45% Don't know 5% Someone else 1% Would not vote 0% YouGov (B) 1000 RV Sponsor: Univision View Poll

We’d all trade Bobby Charles as Maine Governor for ousting Collins, right? that’d be the funniest outcome ever

I think most Mainers would take that, although apparently the environment would be red enough they could lose the state legislature 😒😦

Could you imagine what New England shifting to the right of the nation would do to our politics? It’d actually upend liberal life forever

Mostly because New England has 12 Senate seats (thanks to the British). Ousting Collins is so important bc holding all 12 is essentially a pre-requisite for any structural reform.

maristpoll.marist.eduHome of the Marist Poll | Polls, Analysis, Learning, and MoreThe Marist Institute for Public Opinion (MIPO) is a survey research center. MIPO is home to the Marist Poll and conducts polls on politics, the economy, sports, technology and more at the local, state...

Hannah Pingree needed the money after all, Andy Beshear vindicated. /s

Eric Michael Garcia@ericmgarcia.bsky.social

NEW MARIST POLL LIKELY VOTERS OF MAINE: Jackson 49% Collins 47% Pingree 44% Charles 44% maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-mi...

if you look at this poll more closely, this is actually an awesome poll for Troy Jackson lol

World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther@corncobanalysis.bsky.social

The Maine generic ballot is D+5 on Marist! That would be a 7 pt shift right from 2024! RED WAVE

The Maine generic ballot is D+5 on Marist! That would be a 7 pt shift right from 2024! RED WAVE

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@djsoke.bsky.social

Also why is the gov race tied LOL maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-mi...

Dj@djsoke.bsky.social

what

I'm so brain damaged that I burst out laughing at a poll (Maine governor being tied in Marist)

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twitch.tvElectionCord - TwitchElectionCord's Twitch Page! We specialize in US Elections with a focus on Demographics. You'll see polling numbers, demographic numbers, and even some random stuff! — ElectionCord streams live on Twit...

12h

We are going to be streaming for a little bit for the Marist Poll drop starting around 11:30 PM EST. We are trying to get to 25 followers to reach affiliate, so help us out and drop a follow! LINK: www.twitch.tv/electioncord

As percentage of 2024, overall, this is worse than almost all of Texas right now. And yes, it is mostly Dems voting, but these are not barn-burner totals. Shows how much headline campaigns can drive voter interest.

SK@sstratpolitics.bsky.social

NYC early voting day 3 2026 compared to early voting history

Brooklyn and Manhattan, in particular, are kinda flops so far

10h

So…in the midst of the Vivek unpleasantness, I feel like Ohio going back on the board as purple would be national political sea change. Can it be maintained? It’s certainly on track to swing harder left than: Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and possibly Pennsylvania (by House vote). That’s wild!

15 Congressional districts and 17 Electoral College votes back in play would be an enormous help for the Dems.

washingtonpost.comBolsonaro effectively concedes in Brazil after Trump suggests he won’t helpTrump says the presidential election looked “rigged” but did not say he planned to intervene on behalf of the right-wing politician.

11h

This is actually a fairly good sign that Trump won’t intervene for any of the moron Republicans next week either

Matthew Hay Brown@matthewhaybrown.bsky.social

“Flávio has given up,” a Bolsonaro family adviser told The Washington Post. “He’s terrified. He is worried his father will die in jail, that he himself will be jailed this week, and that he may have a long prison term ahead”

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electioncord.comThe Case For a Polling Miss (For Both Parties)

14h

NOW OUT: I wanted to discuss the always fun topic of polling misses, and how there could be a reasonable case made for misses for both parties, or no one! LINK: electioncord.com/the-case-for...

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The Upshot

@upshot.nytimes.com

21h

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

nytimes.comBrazil Election Results in Maps: How Lula Came Back (Gift Article)Maps show where Brazil’s progressive president surged ahead to win re-election, a dramatic reversal from the first round of voting.

21h

😭

21h

Still great for Dems, but finally R’s took the lead

Well, it may sound absurd, but I think this is a fairly good sign that RedBox Research/A Fight Worth Having is a real pollster. They paid Braun Research (a real firm) $10K in April for polling on their FEC filing, so clearly they've established themselves as a buyer in the market.

PAC polls are often biased and terrible, however, so you shouldn't take this too seriously.

afightworthhaving.comPolling Center | RedBox ResearchRedBox Research's October 2026 polls of likely voters: every race, the seats that could flip, leader approval and each poll's crosstabs and methodology.

Dem group appears to have commissioned 35 polls here Not going to detail them, most are good for Dems. afightworthhaving.com/polling

fec.govA FIGHT WORTH HAVING - committee overview - FEC.govExplore current and historic federal campaign finance data on the new fec.gov. Look at totals and trends, and see how candidates and committees raise and spend money. When you find what you need, expo...

This PAC does have an FEC filing and raised $486K. that would automatically raise this poll to “not entirely fake” status www.fec.gov/data/committ...

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I do kind of wonder what would happen if the US had a runoff system for President. Would Harris have been able to win?

You all hated the top two primary until it worked in Brazil

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Lula's secret? It could be that he has a hat on in the picture they're using for election results. Maybe Democrats need to wear more hats to ensure victory...

MLC@chicyph80.bsky.social

OMG!!!! Is Lula about to pull this off?!! Serbia and Brazil in the same day?!?!

The Steelers won 3 straight and Lula came back to win, time for me to eat crow

World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther@corncobanalysis.bsky.social

Everyone in the US wonders “damn how can we get a working class leader with good social and economic politics“ and that was Lula. He is a legend. He also looks like Steelers Aaron Rodgers out there sometimes

Idk if this means anything with the Rubio State Dept, but, should be noted Lula and Trump apparently got along very well at their last summit. Which is funny. www.france24.com/en/americas/...

are there any old men that Trump won’t compliment??

If there had been a 2024 presidential runoff because Trump didn’t get 50%, would Dems have won it?

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eva

@glorianas.bsky.social

lula

Lula rn

Magenta@magentab.bsky.social

from the electioncord discord

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Magenta

@magentab.bsky.social

from the electioncord discord

Lula clearly went on João Rogan

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Magenta

@magentab.bsky.social

flavio bolsonaro

CRUCIAL Wãokesha County in Minais Gerais

Yeah I can’t believe Lula is in position to pull this off. Will take the L, along with the gamblers

I like how they get so few liberals who said they were disinterested in voting that they didn’t give crosstabs. The anti-electoralist left is basically two kids in a trenchcoat?

ElectionCord@electioncord.com

From the new CBS/YouGov poll: out of the people that said they definitely were not going to vote in 2026, 37% said basically, they hate both sides, 20% said they don't think their vote matters, but the biggest piece of the pie? The non-carers, at 43%. LINK: assets1.cbsnewsstatic.com/hub/cms/prod...

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@coleurbanist.bsky.social

We anti-incumbent’d in Serbia!

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🏳️‍🌈🚲Cole🚄🚟

Here are some of the other things I am averaging. Some don't have many polls

🏳️‍🌈🚲Cole🚄🚟@coleurbanist.bsky.social

I am doing averages on all kinds of things and honestly, I am starting to suspect the California Wealth Tax won't pass.

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Magenta

@magentab.bsky.social

so some serious analysis, this may be the most comically blue IPEV day 1 electorate i have seen in NJ compared to 2025, IPEV DEM turnout is UP by 26% (yes, more democrats have voted on 2026 IPEV day 1 compared to 2025) all the while, IPEV GOP turnout is DOWN by 41% on day 1

Joe@electionsjoe.bsky.social

2026 New Jersey Day 1 In-Person Early Vote: 🟦 Dem: 57.1% 🟥 GOP: 25% 🟨 IND: 18% 2025 NJ Day 1 In-Person Early Vote: 🟦 Dem: 42.1% 🟥 GOP: 39.3% 🟨 IND: 18.7%

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🏳️‍🌈🚲Cole🚄🚟

@coleurbanist.bsky.social

My generic ballot average right now is D+9.2

Why are people mad at this? Is there some kind of Woke Original Sin doctrine?

brent 🌹🗽@therealbrent.bsky.social

my god

Surely this leader loses his seat bit won’t happen again

There’s pretty much nothing to glean from the British Columbia mess except that it appears the NDP held up best with white educated urbanites. So, if you’re a center-left party getting uniform swings against you, at least you can always rely on those white educated urbanites😭