Fischer 🛠️🚇

Fischer 🛠️🚇

@fischer.bsky.social

full stack content engineer, portlander, t1d he/him

2.7K followers1.1K following13.9K posts

Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

based on ballot return data it seems like democrats have taken this to heart and republicans have not, which opens up the possibility of something very funny happening

The Oregonian@oregonian.com

Officials recommend voters use ballot drop boxes whenever possible and say that voters intent on mailing their ballots should do so early, to ensure that they are counted in the event of postmark delays at the U.S. Postal Service. Keep up with the latest election news at OregonLive.com/politics

Fischer 🛠️🚇 reposted

Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

Replying to @bradleyclover.com

I need to post more about my municipal imax idea. which is that we should build a publicly owned imax theater at the base of one of the broadway corridor developments

Fischer 🛠️🚇 reposted

terra firma, terra eterna 🚱🌉
@kavi.bsky.social

It's so weird how most US cities are run by like,, a version of the Urban Growth Machine that's somehow also nimby now? Like they'll support extremely dubious public private partnerships for sports stadiums, and want to legalize gambling for the tax revenue, but housing is too far

Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

insane discovery today that my gf didn't know who the unipiper was. I showed her a picture and she was like idk I've probably seen him online before but the name doesn't ring a bell

Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

a serious business take on this is that laika should try to crack into premium formats for their film. that’s part of how AVATAR box office numbers have held up so well despite overall ticket sales being down

Mike Rogoway@rogoway.bsky.social

This $100m movie did $11m at the box office this weekend — feels like a significant share of that total came from Portland! :) (The take was well ahead of box office forecasts but far, far short of what it’d need to be profitable. That’s ok. The Knights can afford to indulge themselves.)

Fischer 🛠️🚇 reposted

John Horvick
@horvick.bsky.social

Oregon ballot return update and why it probably doesn't say much about final turnout. Those who have voted are just regular voters. Democrats -Voted in 8 of last 8 elections: 49% -6+ of 8: 75% -Age 65+: 64%

Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

good first half of the tweet

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com

We don’t know if the early vote will be predictive because all Republicans could just be waiting to vote until Election Day. But what this means in practice is that to win, Trump/GOP will have to have the most successful EDay mobilization operation in modern history— and that it’s completely stealth

Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

voters do change their voting behavior between elections in a way that makes early voting a bad signal for election outcomes. remember the 2024 pennsylvania democratic firewall?

Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

if you sit down and try to model this out, you get something like the votehub early vote model where EVs can tell you confidently that the results will be between paxton +7 and talarico +9

Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

also hold up . . . did he actually do anything about pinball machine permitting? is this just the karen bass pothole video all over again?

Fischer 🛠️🚇@fischer.bsky.social

my novick mailer just arrived and nobody mentions it actually devotes an entire page to stopping stupid stuff

Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

and for the record he’s wrong about office budgets and his stupid crusade is hurting the legitimacy of the new council

Fischer 🛠️🚇@fischer.bsky.social

council office budgets aren’t particularly large and go towards paying staff to do both policy development and constituent services. novick doesn’t doesn’t do much of either so he’s advocating cutting those budgets at the expense of councilors who do

Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

while canvassing for mitch in d4 ran into this interesting sidewalk gap where the lots on either side of this house had been redeveloped into townhomes and were required to add sidewalks but the house was left without any

Fischer 🛠️🚇 reposted

mitchgreen.bsky.social
@mitchgreen.bsky.social

Lifelong activist Kay O’Neill was recently diagnosed with ALS, a fatal disease with no cure. She asked to record this video for Mitch while she can still speak.

Fischer 🛠️🚇 reposted

Christof Spieler
@christofspieler.bsky.social

My favorite graphics in "Transportation and the Shape of Cities" #11: Because trains are tall and bad at going uphill it takes a lot of space to ramp up or down for a road/railroad grade separation.

Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

the eli arnold PCEF free transit proposal is bad. would eviscerate PCEF, would basically throw a grenade into trimet’s extremely functional regional fare system by creating a weird local exemption, and it doesn’t even have a strong climate nexus (free transit rides don’t displace car trips)

Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

trimet needs more service, which will bring more riders, who will pay more fares. if we’re giving them millions of $ in city funds it NEEDS to be going towards service

Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

if you remember arnold’s line in 2024 that we don’t need new bus lanes until we “solve” safety on trimet, I think the vision here is clear: a tiny, shrinking transit system with free service for those people, that the drivers in the city can safely ignore

Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

hundreds of thousands of lines of verification code for a hundred lines of C partly because of this shotgun blast approach of proving every single aspect of the behavior of the code

Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

rooting for javadi. a sharp guy who, sort of unusually for a former republican, wasn’t especially socially conservative and doesn’t come into the party with a ton of baggage around LGBTQ rights or abortion

OPB@opb.org

Cyrus Javadi has won his coastal district — stretching from Astoria down to Neskowin — twice. But he did so as a Republican. Then last year Javadi shocked the GOP with two moves. First, he voted with Democrats on a controversial transportation bill. Then, he switched parties.

opb.orgCyrus Javadi switched parties. Will his Oregon district reelect him anyway?The fight for a state House district on the North Coast is a major question mark this year.
Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

not super left wing, which is fine in a conservative district. if oregon republicans weren’t a far right death cult they’d be grooming him to run for governor instead of sending him death threats because he voted to keep paving rural highways

Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

I find a lot of arguments against popularism unpersuasive but this is one area that they completely whiffed. absolutely no explanation for why this happened:

Jake Grumbach@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social

A helpfully clear exchange here Hasan: "So your argument is that [Minnesota ICE protesters] should stay at home because immigration is a salient issue for Donald Trump. Opposing ICE is only going to help Trump. Wait until we win the election in 2028." Yglesias: "Yes that is what I would have said"

View full thread
Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

keeping in mind that the democratic governor candidate won in both 2018 and 2022, higher turnout in the portland metro is obviously better since any dem is gong to have to bank a ton of votes here to offset more conservative rural areas

Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

it is also always funny to compare this to 2020, which was such a bizarre turnout outlier. at this point that year almost 37% of registered voters had returned their ballot

Fischer 🛠️🚇
@fischer.bsky.social

turnout watchers may recall that 2022 and 2024 early turnout were pretty similar until they diverged the week before the election and 2024 ended up ~7 points higher. will be good to keep an eye on

Fischer 🛠️🚇 reposted

AltWatcher
@altwatcher.bsky.social

As we approach the midterms, remember that the Alt National Park Service is a merch sales operation claiming without evidence to be a group of federal employees, and is not a genuine source of news about elections of any kind. Please get your election info from a local, reputable source.