Graham Lanktree

An input for today’s Fed meeting: Trump/Israel may restart deeply unpopular Iran war after U.S. elections, which would likely generate a fresh inflationary shock.

🚨 BREAKING: EU countries have dropped the idea of offering Canada "associate member" status in the 27-member bloc, opting instead for softer language promising "ever closer association," according to a draft statement, seen by POLITICO. Full story: vist.ly/5qd4r

EXCLUSIVE: The European Investment Bank is due to sign a framework agreement with Canada this week that will pave the way for investments into critical raw materials and other areas, a Bank official told POLITICO.

A Franco-German car deal would impose stricter “Made in Europe” requirements under the proposed Industrial Accelerator Act, and soften EU emissions targets. But it risks angering trade partners and hurting European automakers’ competitiveness. 🔗 vist.ly/5q7fm

This new report today with my NYT colleague Anton Troianovski follows up on our earlier reporting this month on the Lukoil deal that would bring financial benefits to business partners of the Witkoff and Trump families. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...

Germany, France and at least six other EU countries are pushing against “associate membership” as the name for closer EU ties with Canada, six diplomats involved in the negotiations said.

Ukrainian interceptors still cannot use the internet at high speed to shoot down Russian attack drones or conduct mid-strike operations as of today morning, Ukrainian officials and a drone operator said.

Streeting said the public need to be prepared for "increasingly sophisticated cyber attacks" on businesses, or supply chain disruption caused by "hostile state actors or terrorists". www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Czech President Petr Pavel said the U.S. diesel deal with Russia derailed peace progress with Ukraine and gives Moscow “new hope.” “It will be much harder now,” said Pavel. 🔗 vist.ly/5ph74

Reuters: TSMC seeks factory-equipment alternatives to thwart China’s rare earths grip, sources say – ‘surveyed suppliers on using rare-earth-free motors in factory-automation equipment’

Palantir seeks to reassure Europeans that its military AI system used by NATO has no "kill ‌switch", after disruptions to Ukraine's Starlink services heightened concerns about reliance on US tech firms. Interview with Louis Mosley:

Steve Witkoff, the United States’ special envoy, praised Russian ruler Vladimir Putin during face-to-face talks in St. Petersburg, calling him “a humanitarian.”

Navarro is Director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy. trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/people/peter...

Trump open to idea of joint meeting with Xi, Putin next month www.reuters.com/world/china/...

China threatens retaliation if U.K. follows the EU on tariffs www.politico.eu/article/chin...

Albertans have made 'clear choice' to remain part of Canada, says PM Mark Carney www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq...

Donald Trump canceled his scheduled Oct. 16 deposition in his lawsuit against the BBC because of "matters of national importance." The BBC alerts the judge that those matters were: a rally in Dalton, Ga. and a fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago.

US Energy Secretary Wright: Talks with the UK on diesel stock releases continuing.

Larry Ellison’s TikTok has shut down the promotional account for Alex Gibney’s Elon Musk documentary. www.theverge.com/tech/1013453...

EXCLUSIVE: U.K. Trade Minister Anas Sarwar has said Britain and the EU must “work together and act in lockstep” to tackle China’s dominance in the automotive sector.

The EU is expected to prioritize chemicals and industrial machinery in its efforts to protect European industry from Chinese competition, two people with knowledge of the discussion told us.

Trump: "I have some very severe problems"

UK is prepared to align with EU tariffs on Chinese EVs, minister indicates www.politico.eu/article/uk-m...

Doug Ford warns Trump's tariff war with Canada is here to stay politi.co/4hY2Bay

Billions of dollars’ worth of contracts predicting oil would fall and the S&P 500 would rise were placed about 15 minutes before Trump announced a U-turn on Iran in a post on Truth Social. CFTC staff began to investigate...then were told to lay off. www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Bloomberg: China’s trade surplus ballooned to US$938 billion for the first nine months, keeping it on pace to exceed last year’s record as export growth surged faster than expected in September – ‘Exports soared 36% last month from a year earlier […]. Imports jumped 31%’

A rebellion by center-right lawmakers has exposed deep divisions over a flagship EU industry bill, threatening to derail negotiations over how far Europe should go to protect its manufacturers from foreign competition.

A U.S. federal judge has extended his order restoring White House press credentials to journalists from three news organizations that Donald Trump sought to ban over their reporting.

Supreme Court to decide whether DOGE records can remain secret politi.co/3UqI86C

EXCLUSIVE: Andy Burnham wants South Wales to become the biggest producer of green steel in the world. First, he has to keep its steel industry alive.

European leaders are preparing to demand tougher sanctions on Russia at a summit on Thursday, putting them at odds with Donald Trump just days after the U.S. president struck a deal with Vladimir Putin to ease restrictions on Russian diesel exports. www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Inclined not to put too much weight on IMF forecasting the UK having biggest deficit reduction in the G7, despite the headlines. 1. It's derived from OBR's March forecast which itself was finalised just as the Iran war kicked off. It's not a bottom-up analysis from the IMF.

Tata Steel UK warns the U.K.’s new steel tariff regime is “a threat” to Port Talbot’s redevelopment. www.politico.eu/article/andy...

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Putin could order attacks to stop on election day — but Russia has rejected a longer ceasefire.

Britain and the EU will hold their annual leaders summit on Nov. 20 in Brussels, U.K. PM Andy Burnham has confirmed the date in a statement to the House of Commons.

NATO’s top commander U.S. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich today vowed to block, blunt and break any Russian attack as part of a new “Theory of Victory,” and underlined that alliance troops would fight even if U.S. forces were engaged elsewhere.

European governments have rebuked Donald Trump’s plan to import hundreds of thousands of tons of Russian diesel and vowed to keep isolating Moscow and supporting Ukraine as it heads into a brutal wartime winter.

EXCLUSIVE: The European Commission is working with the U.K. to avoid a cliff edge that threatens to raise the cost of cross-channel electric vehicle exports by 10 percent from the start of next year. 🔗 vist.ly/5mvyp

🚨Trump apparently made a deal with Putin to buy Russian diesel weeks ago, around the time he signed the Graham Act into law. A shipment of diesel departed St. Petersburg September 22nd, and is about to arrive in the US. Will history call this the Dmitriev-Witkoff pact?

"The @financialtimes.com spoke with officials from five different European intelligence agencies who warned that chief executives and other senior employees at defence companies were being targeted by Kremlin operatives." www.ft.com/content/5da2...

For a sign of just how extraordinary oil shipping costs have become, consider this: It’s now more expensive to hire a tanker from the US to China than to launch a rocket into space.

Trump: "I think you heard about the oil deal with Russia. That is a big deal. That is massive amounts of oil coming into our country, and I want to thank President Putin to be honest with you."

A batch of previously undisclosed documents also reveals Exxon promoted climate-solution claims, such as its work on biofuels and carbon capture and storage, that its own scientists said were unlikely to reach commercial scale: arstechnica.visitlink.me/tPZG9V

Peter Navarro on a hot mic: "So, this shithead at the pool camera won't turn on the camera" (Shame C-SPAN didn't take more of this)

America's major allies rebuke Trump and Rubio for riding to the defense of Putin and Netanyahu with vile attacks on the ICC. No one is fooled by what they are doing.

An announcement. There will be plenty of time to reflect on what we've achieved, and on the fantastic colleagues who have helped us achieve it. But for now, sad news ukandeu.ac.uk/announcement... 1/2

This prompted me to go back and check the claim that "On current DWP forecasts, from the 2024 election until 2030, Labour will have increased working-age benefit spending by a further £51.6 bn/year." It appears to be equally fictional/spreadsheet error. Correct figure is maybe £36bn..

Good news. A larger, more liquid carbon market allows UK and EU emitters to buy permits from plants that can decarbonise at the least cost. Plus it avoids pointless CBAM charges on both sides. A no-brainer. www.politico.eu/article/uk-e...

Germany wants the U.K. to raise tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in exchange for protection from Made in Europe rules, according to a person familiar with Berlin’s position. www.politico.eu/article/germ...