Nato Powell

Nato Powell

@hardwarehuman.bsky.social

Twitter refugee, YIMBY, kinda moderate I guess. Lots of luck and some talent with data has allowed me to live in San Francisco, but I hope lots and lots more people will eventually become my neighbors.

123 followers47 following798 posts

@drbecky.bsky.social has a short out talking about life elsewhere where she gives a pretty conservative estimate of how many instances of intelligent life there are out there and it’s made me want to make my own order-of-magnitude type guesses about the various filtering requirements and thus

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So if there have been, say, 50 other civilizations in the galaxy (the other 50 expected to arise in the future), with the earliest arising as long as a billion years ago, we would expect them to have spread throughout the galaxy by now, unless something stopped them. My calculations are surely wrong

But it’s not clear in which direction they’re wrong. Hopefully we’re the first, or almost the first, and that’s why we don’t see anybody else. But if we’re not, that implies most people who get to our level encounter something that makes them disappear. Maybe we are rapidly approaching that thing.

@drbecky.bsky.social has a short out talking about life elsewhere where she gives a pretty conservative estimate of how many instances of intelligent life there are out there and it’s made me want to make my own order-of-magnitude type guesses about the various filtering requirements and thus

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1 in 10 of those eventually give rise to intelligent life. 1 in 10 of those make it to at least our tech level without civilization-ending catastrophe of one sort or another This implies 1 in a billion stars will develop roughly comparable technologic civilizations at some point, ~100 in Milky Way

But what happens next matters a lot. If we stayed at a level of technology a little higher than where we’re are today, with reasonably efficient sublight drives sufficient to very slowly colonize the galaxy, we’d spread through a lot of the galaxy in a short timescale relative to the galaxy.

@drbecky.bsky.social has a short out talking about life elsewhere where she gives a pretty conservative estimate of how many instances of intelligent life there are out there and it’s made me want to make my own order-of-magnitude type guesses about the various filtering requirements and thus

The resulting frequencies. So: 1 in a 1000 stars have at least one planet in a habitable condition long enough to form the most basic life 1 in a 100 of those sustain that life long enough for it to get firmly established. 1 in 100 of those develop rich multicellular life (plants, animals, etc.)

Maggie Koerth is a well respected journalist so you can feel confident that you’re really helping.

Maggie Koerth@maggiek.bsky.social

This week, my illegally detained neighbor -- an asylum seeker with a wife and two children -- will have a hearing that gives him a chance to get home to his family and get his asylum case back on track. But he will need to pay a $6000 bond. www.gofundme.com/f/bring-our-...

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Replying to @cafedujord.bsky.social

In these trying times, please think of the truly persecuted—Bay Area hippie boomers who, after decades of seeing their 401ks and property values sky rocket—now must search for a parking spot. 🎵 How many roads must a man drive down, before he can find where to park? 🎵

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“These are the people who will march in the street against Trump’s nativist’s rhetoric and then turn around and tell you that San Francisco is full.” young guy gives an impassioned speech on how lefty NIMBYs (in SF and everywhere) betray their values. The bill passed! www.tiktok.com/t/ZT6E4ov66/

tiktok.comPlanning Commission voted 4-3 to legalize multifamily housing in San Francisco. Our voices made a difference — but it’s not over yet, the plan now goes to the Board of Supervisors for full approval. L...TikTok video by district9neighbors

For a basically empathetic person to retain some hope for Internet Era humanity, they must recall that if even 1/1000000 people are so damaged they spend all their time seeking threads in which to crap on trans people (or immigrants, or women, or…), that’s still hundreds of trolls in US basements.

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22 years ago I pivoted from working on antibiotic resistance to pandemic viruses. Since then, I've argued that if we care about saving US lives in expectation, advance capacity for producing bird flu vaccine offers by far the greatest expected return on investment. ... We were so goddamn close.

npr.orgTrump administration cancels plans to develop a bird flu vaccineThe Department of Health and Human Services is ending a $766 million contract with the vaccine company Moderna to develop an mRNA vaccine for flu strains with pandemic potential, including bird flu.

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Three things made the US a rich and powerful nation: the rule of law, its science & innovation system, and openness to foreign talent. Remarkable how Trump has taken a sledgehammer to all three. No enemy of this country could do more.

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Not to be too pro technocrat, but it is astounding how much this country depended on the selflessness of like a few hundred thousand highly educated public servants who, for peanuts, made sure our food and medicine and environment etc were safe. And in return these servants were demonized.

Bill Grueskin@bgrueskin.bsky.social

“When it comes to .. raw milk, I want to be free to form a relationship with a local farmer, look him in the eyes, pet his cow, and then decide if I feel safe to drink the milk from his farm.” — Casey Means, Trump’s latest surgeon-general nominee. www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

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crazy that an influx of dense infill housing can lower prices and make homeownership more attainable

Jonathan Berk 🏠@berkie1.bsky.social

"In 2020, [Portland, OR] approved building [middle housing] on lots zoned for single family homes... A new report from the City says, it's working. 1,400 new units built in just a few years and each one is $300,000 less expensive than a typical single family home." @nbcnews.com

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My thoughts on the Take It Down Act as someone who used to handle copyright takedown (and other) requests at Google. 🧵 As many have said, this law will be used as the ultimate weapon for the Trump Admin to censor speech from their political opponents (and more). www.theverge.com/policy/62497...

theverge.comThe Take It Down Act isn’t a law, it’s a weaponIt’s not a law, it’s a weapon.
Jess Miers 🦝@jmiers230.bsky.social

The Take It Down Act just passed. To give you the full scope of just how bad this bill is, advocates who typically oppose the pro-230 / online speech crowd have come forward denouncing it. It is extraordinarily rare we are ever on the same side. cybercivilrights.org/ccri-stateme...

Republicans being nutty is a dog bites man story and Dems being nutty is man bites dog, which is how we ended up with Her Emails and ultimately Trump.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Someone on X pointed out the scant coverage of Ron Johnson saying 9/11 was an inside job. The press assumes Republicans are crazy and malevolent, so when they say crazy stuff it doesn't get covered. But they assume Dems are competent & sane, so any data point to the contrary is treated as big news.

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Replying to @mattjay.com

The most daming claim in this statement IMO: Within 15 minutes of DOGE accounts being created… Attackers in Russia tried logging in using those new creds. Correct usernames and passwords. 2 options here. The DOGE device was hacked. And I don't think I need to explain the 2nd.

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I wrote about the massive own goal this would be for the Dems: www.techdirt.com/2025/03/25/h...

techdirt.comHow Democrats’ Attack On Section 230 Plays Right Into Trump’s Censorial PlansLike clockwork, lawmakers are once again rallying around the idea of eliminating Section 230. That Republicans are leading this charge is hardly surprising—repealing Section 230 is explicitly laid …
Sunken Cathedral@aleesnow.bsky.social

Dems once again tee-ing up the self-own. Repealing Section 230 is a wildly foolish thing to do. Meta has the resources to fight frivolous lawsuits. Smaller companies don’t. Bluesky could be sued out of existence. You are bad at your jobs!

Nato Powell reposted

Replying to @kenwhite.bsky.social

/3 That’s because depression and anxiety lie to you, rob you of context, shut you away from hope. They make you forget and disbelieve the thing you know — that things can get better, that they WILL get better. That people care. That you can get help.

I have to wonder how Trumpists are telling themselves Trump is strengthening the US when they see the relative performances on this chart. Granted that most aren’t seeing it, but I’m sure those that do are telling themselves *some* story and I want to hear what it is.

Nato Powell reposted

This is fascism at its core. Trump is making lawyers fear who they take on as clients. This is happening before Trump uses the DOJ and FBI to go after his enemies. At that point, wrongfully targeted people won't be able to get the best representation. I am terrified. www.wsj.com/us-news/law/...

wsj.comFear of Trump Has Elite Law Firms in RetreatMany big corporate law firms are declining to help with public criticism and legal opposition to the second Trump administration, in the wake of executive orders punishing law firms with Democratic ti...

Nato Powell reposted

A fundamental story of the last decade is that a lot of basically incompetent people got fed up by competent people telling them they were wrong, constructed a more welcoming alternative ecosystem of competency cosplayers, and then somehow turned the whole government over to them.

The fate of LYMERix proves that senseless destruction that reverberated for decades could occur prior to the Trump era, but everything I’m reading suggests that senseless destruction reverberating for decades will be the mode rather than the outlier in his second term. www.wired.com/story/life-s...

wired.comThe Damage to Federal Medical Research Is Already DoneClinical trials may have to be scrapped, research applications will be pushed back, and unpaid researchers will quickly leave the sector—even if the Trump administration’s funding pause is only tempor...

Nato Powell reposted

An efficient facism does not require much direct state violence. It merely requires the assurance that private violence aligned with the desires of the regime will go unpunished.

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Keeping minimally abreast of the news but still waiting for something concrete we can do about what’s coming, and trying not to exhaust myself or others thinking about all the things we can’t do anything about.

This has to be one of the most NextDoorish of NextDoor posts, earnestly complaining that prohibiting parking in front of a fire hydrant is too much of a hardship for drivers. Perhaps the daylighting law is causing some carbrained citizens to think of other ways their liberties are being crushed.

Nato Powell reposted

The article raises important issues, but it’s mind-boggling to me that threats of violence against city employees by people who want to defend parking are characterized in the headling as a “war on cars.” That’s a war _for_ cars, threats of violence to advocate *for* drivers.

Jane Natoli 🥑🚲🍍@wafoli.bsky.social

This article features violent threats to city employees and advocates who have the temerity to imagine something different for our city than cars everywhere all the time. If you gotta resort to terrorism to protect “free” parking, idk man…maybe examine that www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/arti...

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Replying to @ericmgarcia.bsky.social

Term limits and keeping the pay low for members of Congress are perfect examples of populism having the exact opposite effect. Term limits means that a legislature loses institutional knowledge and only lobbyists know how government works. Low pay means only rich people can run for office.

Nato Powell reposted

Some members of South Korean President Yoon's party are among those loudly opposing and voting against his attempted authoritarian takeover. Watching from America, I wish them luck, and can't help but think it'd be nice if we had that here.

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Replying to @kathbarbadoro.bsky.social

im not saying you have to indulge any of the more toxic shit these guys often believe, but i think offering them another explanation for their feelings of alienation without dismissiveness and vitriol is pretty important if you want to win them over

I am trying not to get my hopes up, but it sure is looking like the poll herding has hidden a significant drop in Trump’s support and Harris will win fairly clearly tomorrow. Not confident because there’s still too many other scenarios where weakness elsewhere still allows Trump to eke out a win.

I feel like the median result with the info I have is a 2020ish sized win, but with significant chances of Trump pulling out a close race, or of a decisive Harris win becoming apparent by midnight eastern time.

College student Josh Shapiro wrote a very bad essay over 30 years ago, but his current positions re:Israel and Gaza are the Democratic mainstream. So, when I see people flipping out about him I think either their vote is ungettable or they’re fundamentally reacting to him being Jewish. Or both.

Political violence doesn’t succeed in a functional democracy, regardless of who the target is or whether the target is themselves committed to democratic principles. And this is how we want it to be; the moment political violence confers success, including against “the bad guys”, we’ve all lost.

Nato Powell reposted

Fight against daunting odds, because it’s the right thing to do, and because sometimes you win.

NPR@npr.org

BREAKING NEWS: Voters turned out in numbers not seen in decades to stop the far-right National Rally from taking power in the French National Assembly. Polls predicted a first-place finish for National Rally, which instead came in third in initial results as polling stations closed.

Nato Powell reposted

Replying to @jamellebouie.net

“I can’t do smart things, because I am not actually smart. But I ache to be smarter than everyone. So I believe in weird, stupid things, and spin it as being more brave, more smart, more perceptive than the people who don’t believe in weird stupid things.”

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