James Lambert

This summer, we banned low-rent poll aggregation engagement farms from our Discord server. Didn’t need any further examples to back us up, but we sure got one tonight.

How you know Election Day is almost upon us: It's time for The Downballot's annual prediction contest, with prizes sponsored by the gloriously delicious GreensBabka.com! And this year's contest is bigger and badder than ever. Click below for full details & a link to submit your guesses. Good luck!

Uh, don't look now, but some GOP-aligned PAC thinks that spending $250K+ against the Democrat in #KS04 (Trump +23) is worth doing at this point in the cycle. x.com/CATargetBot0...

A MILLION DOLLARS just dropped against Jeff Van Drew #NJ02 x.com/CATargetBot0...

FYI: If you're not a paid Downballot subscriber, you are missing Discord-exclusive memes like this one.

The Downballot Discord is my favorite place to get and discuss election news with a group of extremely smart and funny people. The subscription price is worth it just for that alone.

One meel-yon dollars just dropped by Dems against Anthony Constantino in NY-21. (Anthony Constantino replies: "Grok, am I running in #NY21?")

NEW: Our complete charts of 3Q fundraising data for *every* race for Congress Some real narrative-busting details: Dems & allied indies smashed Republicans, raising $499 million to $194 million With better ad rates for candidates, this goes a long way toward neutralizing the flood of outside GOP $

This was very likely the only plausible option available to Democrats: absorb the massive spending, pray you survive, then whale on them with whatever you have left at the end. Seeing as the polls haven't gotten worse for Ds (if anything, they keep getting better), it seems like this is working.

SLF's Latcham (R) on North Carolina Senate race: “Roy Cooper was a fantastic recruit. And so that's a tough race, but also a very, very expensive state too. And we ended up spending just over $30 million to define Cooper, but we hit a wall.” #NCSEN

One of HMP's targets is Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, whose #FL13 backed Trump 56-43. If Luna loses to Leela Gray ... this May article from Politico will have aged interestingly! www.politico.com/live-updates...

Another banger from @donnermaps.bsky.social: September polls of House races with named candidates suggested a D+11 environment. But does that actually mean anything for the midterms? The answer is yes.

To put Marshall's interest rates in context, new reporting from the @kansascity.com Star: They were "by far the highest of the roughly 150 medical practices whose public records were reviewed" ... "no other medical providers that charged annual interest at 18% or any other specified rate above 12%"

Roger Marshall charged his patients 18% annual interest on their unpaid bills. His bakery bill for $678.75 was due six years ago. At 18% interest compounded annually, the total he'd owe would be at least $1,800. Marshall just paid the bakery $1,300—far less than what his patients would owe.

House Republicans are bracing for catastrophe in once safe red seats politi.co/4B1spM0

Quite the stat from the Washington Post about how the GOP's massive spending on ads is nowhere close to as scary for Democrats as it looks: In Dallas, Republican groups had to spend *five* times as much as James Talarico "for just 30 percent more impact." www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

I just showed this ad to my wife who has no idea who Ken Paxton is, and she asked me: “Does Ken Paxton not want the children to be found?? Is that what they’re trying to say?”

And now the Congressional Leadership Fund has followed suit in #NE02 x.com/JakeSherman/...

NEW: Republicans are flooding key races with a massive deluge of money … but it’s not translating to a similar advantage on the airwaves. In a special Sunday piece, we explain why. And perhaps most notable, the GOP spending spree has yet to register in the polls.

More details on this poll: Pollster: Impact Research Field dates: Sept. 28 – Oct. 1 Sample size: 500 LVs #WI01 voted Trump+5 in 2024 but Steil won by 10 against a touted Dem recruit.

More details on this poll: Pollster: Normington Petts Field dates: Sept. 24-28 Sample size: 400 LVs Per our calculations, #TX15 went for Trump by 18 points in 2024. x.com/cjwarnke/sta...

This is such good work

STOP QUOTE TWEETING THE POLL ACCOUNTS THAT NEVER LINK BACK TO THE POLLS THEY'RE MENTIONING thank you

In primaries this year, Democratic turnout utterly dwarfed Republican turnout. But does it mean anything for November? It turns out the answer is very much yes. A new analysis from @donnermaps.bsky.social suggests that Dems are on track for a 13-point blowout in the House vote. Here's why.

South Dakota’s Republican secretary of state, Monae Johnson, just endorsed the Democrat running to succeed her, Terrence Davis. Johnson lost the GOP nod at a party convention in June to Heather Baxter, a member of the state Freedom Caucus who wants to hand-count all ballots.

Rigging the Electoral College isn’t the goal of illegally excluding noncitizens—this map is a minor tradeoff for turbocharging gerrymandering 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯 Texas, Florida, etc. Excluding noncitizens from redistricting would let the GOP pack more Dem votes into fewer seats—making the rest whiter & more GOP

New analysis: Expert handicappers like the Cook Political Report are probably underestimating Democratic odds of winning the House by about 30 points. That's based on an analysis of their historical ratings, not polls or other models. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-18...

Ouch www.nytimes.com/2026/09/17/u...

How are they allowed to do that when "No Going Back" is literally their name 🤔

WATCH LIVE https://youtube.com/live/ktSe_U9SDqo?feature=share BETTER IS POSSIBLE: CALGARY-SHAW PROVES IT WITH HISTORIC ALBERTA NDP WIN

Happy to help, Dan.

Watching this guy be shamed into silence was extremely satisfying.

"He may have terrible hygiene. Yeah, I smell it too. He might not tip his waitress. He may have borrowed your car and returned it with a few dents."

When your "best" foot forward on a challenging issue is completely incoherent messaging like this, just fucking pack it in, man. What the hell is this.

Me whenever David Axelrod chimes in

Some pieces say Brandon Dukes will be first Democrat to represent this seat in Butler County since 1999, but the GOP's hold goes back even further than that. Dem state Rep. Patricia Carone switched parties in 1993 and won her first term with GOP in 1994, starting winning streak that just snapped.

Democrat Brandon Dukes appears to have flipped a GOP-held Pennsylvania House seat in Butler County that Trump carried 59-40 in 2024. Dukes' win would give Democrats, who won a 1-seat majority in both 2022 and 2024, a big pickup ahead of the fall when the whole chamber is up.

Quite the season finale! The last pre-November special election of the year ends with a Dem flip in a Trump+18 district in a chamber that’s been divided by just one seat for almost four years. Wow.

A key part of Lindsey Graham's legacy: when he called Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/12/u...

Graham Platner finally files withdrawal paperwork. Dems can now officially pick a replacement. x.com/hollyotterbe...

So let me get this right: The GOP messaging of the day, somehow, is both "fuck yeah we killed their navy" and "Iran deserves to be able to defend itself"?

Wow, @mcimaps.bsky.social pointed this out on the other site, but the Republicans did NOT get a candidate in Florida's #HD47, a Trump+3 seat that they currently hold, meaning that the Democrats have automatically FLIPPED IT!

The most offensive thing about Spencer Pratt is that for a few brief moments I was somehow expected to know or care who he is.

This is a devastating interview. Scott Pelley tells the NYT that Bari Weiss directly put a “thumb on the scale” for Trump over the killing of Renee Good. Here’s his explanation of exactly what happened.

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has endorsed activist Darializa Avila Chevalier's campaign to defeat Rep. Adriano Espaillat in next month's Democratic primary. #NY13

Gov Jared Polis told a Colorado Sun event that his decision to give clemency to Tina Peters "will be remembered fondly." He was later interrupted by protesters carrying an enormous banner reading EAT SHIT POLIS coloradosun.com/2026/05/19/j...

Former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado (R) will face former federal prosecutor Zach Dembo (D) in general election for open GOP-held #KY06. Trump won it 57-42 in 2023, but Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear carried it 60-40 the previous year. National Democrats have reserved close to $700,000 in fall ad time.