Jacob S. Rugh

NEW AT DEMOGRAPHY: We use difference-in-difference approach using applicant vs. implemented counties w/ 287(g) ICE agreements 2000-2020 to identify a plausibly causal effect immigration enforcement leading to sizeable increase in Latino-White segregation. OPEN ACCESS PDF doi.org/10.1215/0070...

We're continuing to count down the top 25 most cited articles of all time at @cicojournal.bsky.social This insightful article by Zawadi Rucks-Ahidiana @zraresearch.bsky.social is from only four years ago but is already making a major impact in theorizing gentrification

#earlyvote midday update 10/26: at least 30 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳🎉 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

Manhattan peaked in 1910 at 2.3 million people. One Lower East Side census tract held 44,000 people on 50 acres; those blocks now hold about one person for every four. Data: IPUMS NHGIS · Bromley atlases, NYPL #dataviz #maps #NYC #history

Told my husband that the vibe on Bluesky tonight can best be described as “Ewok party.”

One benefit of holding leaders accountable for crimes is that if Flávio Bolsonaro tries to overturn this election, he knows exactly where he’d end up. In prison, next to his father.

In his acceptance speech, Lula says he will work to regulate digital platforms in Brazil. “Digital crimes must be dealt with like real-life crimes.” This comes after Meta directly interfered with the Brazilian elections, favouring Flávio Bolsonaro.

The long-serving strongman leader of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, has conceded defeat in an election that pitted him and his right-wing party against a diverse student-led opposition movement that spent two years protesting his government.

This just hit the @reuters.com wire: BRAZIL'S LULA REELECTED PRESIDENT IN RUNOFF VOTE, DATAFOLHA PROJECTS

Flávio Bolsonaro just lost in Brazil. Viktor Orban lost in Hungary. On Tuesday Benjamin Netanyahu will lose in Israel. Come next Tuesday we will win the midterms and take first step to destroying MAGA and putting Trump in prison! (That must be our goal)

Protest works. Organization is decisive. Draw your own conclusions. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/o...

The newest edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now covering November's state legislative elections in Connecticut, Iowa, & Utah! From the death of the Connecticut GOP to the Iowa Dems maybe pulling off the unthinkable. Check it out below! uncrewed.substack.com/p/state-legi...

Day 10 of NC Early Voting: The Critical Number Continues To Be 36% The pathway to nearly 3 million early ballots cast before Election Day 2026 is set with one week left. Over one-quarter of NC registered Democrats have cast their ballots. #ncpol ncpoliticscenter.substack.com/p/day-10-of-...

I spy three promising trends here... Tell me what you see... Utah Co. is 57% R, 8% D, 35% U/O by registration. Data as of Oct 24 (votes tabulated by Utah Co. Clerk thru Oct 23).

#earlyvote morning update 10/24: at least 25 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

A new analysis shows early in-person voting among Black Georgians is up 33% compared with the first nine days of voting in 2022, while turnout among voters under 30 has jumped 54%. Among young Black voters, the increase is an eye-popping 80%. #gapol www.ajc.com/politics/202...

www.sltrib.com/news/politic...

"If the polls are right, in just 10 days, Democrats will be swept into power in the House and may even capture the Senate. If they do, it will be due to gains they’ve made with these elastic, reactive, largely apolitical low-information voters." @gelliottmorris.com open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...

LFG!!!! 🔥🔥🔥

New: Low-info voters, who put Trump in the White House, now look even more anti-Trump than high-info voters, and give Dems bigger margins on the generic ballot. 1 out of 3 Trump voters who can't name the party in charge of Congress now back Dems for 2026. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/poll-low-i...

No state in has swung blue more since 2004 than Utah (D +24) No county statewide has swung blue more than Utah County (D +36) No city statewide has swung blue more than Provo (D +55) 2004 Pres R +73 2024 Pres R +18 #PurpleProvo

🟦D +18❗swing in party reg. of mail vote (so far) UTAH, 2022-2026 (comparing only mail, excl. in-person) Data source credit: @electproject.bsky.social election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

🔵D+11 swing in voter reg. Early mail vote in Utah County, 2022 - 2026

When I say this election year is different in Utah: Net Diff. in New Active Voters YTD: 2016 🔴R +36K 2018 🔴R +13K 2020 🔴R +112K 2022 🔴R +35K 2024 🔴R +30K 2026 🔵D +22K Since Labor Day 2026 🔵+5,384 🔴+1,370 NET 🔵+4,014 Last week 🔵+596 🔴-639 NET 🔵+1,235 Unprecedented Dem advantage this year.

With 60 October House polls in the books, we can now update this figure with October 2026 values for the Named Congressional Ballot and the Generic Congressional Ballot (GCB from @fiftyplusone.news). NCB is now D+ 11.5; GCB is D +9.1 Full explanation here: www.the-downballot.com/p/house-race...

The early voting blog is updated! Dems statewide lead up to 11,300, or 4.5 percent. 12 percent of active voters have cast ballots. About a quarter of the vote is in. Day 6 of 14 in-person early voting today! thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

Families in the top 10% spend 13x more on developmental activities than those in the bottom 25%, compared to 3x in 1980. "Even More Unequal Childhoods: 45 years of Widening Income Gaps in Parental Investments in the United States" now out at @sociologicalsci.bsky.social doi.org/10.15195/v13... 🧵👇

"National Black-white racial income disparities have changed little over the past 50 years. But this national stasis masks dramatic change at the local level. In 1969, inequality was greatest in the South, and lowest (although still substantial) in the industrial Midwest. Today, the reverse is true"

Here's how our live-tracker counties ended: Dallas is at 33% of its total 2022 turnout and 24.5% of its total 2024 turnout Will do a more comprehensive look w/ precinct details tomorrow/fri - got home too late tonight!

1 in 5 Utah County voters have registered or updated their registration since Jan. 2025: 49% registered Republican vs 59% for those who registered before 2025, a difference or drop of -10 points. And the drop is 2× as steep among voters age 30+than age 18-29. In Utah County. Let that sink in.

Democrats Have a Wide Lead (D +11) in New Poll as Trump Slides The poll used named congressional candidates (not generic ballot) Lead widens to D +14 among those very likely to vote Trump at just 34% approval www.nytimes.com/2026/10/21/u...

This gets at something that I think we will see a lot more of as the MAGA coalition disintegrates: really hardline culture war Republicans are *weird*. Aggressively weird, about issues that most people just kinda don't care about or don't want to discuss in a public forum!

Official statement by the Utah County Democratic Party @utcountydems.bsky.social www.instagram.com/p/Dew7k2nGpJ...

Big batch of House Dem internals out today showing Dems 10-15 pts ahead of Harris numbers. 40+ Repub seats are being contested. By Election Day it might be 70+ Not crazy to think we could pick up 55+ seats Net gains: 1994 R+54 2006 D+30 2010 R+64 2018 D+41 We could be looking at over 270+ seats.

Outgoing GOP Rep for NV02 Amodei said he voted for the 3rd party candidate

A thread about the polling we've seen in recent days. There is a lot of data suggesting that voters are breaking towards Dems and away from the Rs in the closing days of the election. The wave is getting bigger. Here's a summary of new generic ballots: 1/

New NYT and Strength In Numbers polls this morning showing roughly same thing regarding national environment, around D+11-12 lead for Dems in the generic ballot depending on population. Double digit margin now a 50-50 chance in my modeling of all polls www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-10-21...