Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis

31 Mar 2025

With the dismissal of Peter Vermes today from Sporting Kansas City, I wanted to share a bit of analysis that shows a pervasive problem in simple terms. A short 🧵: Since 2022, no team in MLS has had a worse xG per Shot Differential, and it's really not even close. 1/

Evander’s sole purpose in life is try to make us data analysts look like fools. He’s the exception to the rule that most announcers think exists in every MLS team and absolutely doesn’t.

Soccerwise@soccerwisehq.bsky.social

OH MY, EVANDER 😳

backheeled.comInside the mind of Yoann Damet, the manager leading record-breaking St. Louis City: "I want us to be relentless"Here's how the youngest coach in MLS is having unprecedented success in his debut season.

Friday Stat Dump: Goals from Progressed Play Sequences I said I would do a deep dive on St. Louis City and the reason behind their record-setting 21-game unbeaten streak. In the meantime, they won the US Open Cup. Recommended reading from @backheeled.com: www.backheeled.com/how-yoann-da...

STL City are neither a build-up team nor are they direct. They don't create much from winning the ball higher. They are effective at getting the ball, then getting into the final 3rd, and then getting the ball in front of goal. And they keep you from doing it, too. That's why they're special.

Is your team special in some way? Is it just because of one player's skills or is there a team ethos that is working? Let me know, and maybe I'll profile them, too. NWSL Stat Dump: Which team should I do there? That's all for this week. Enjoy the games!

What is progressed play? Open play sequences that moved the ball with intent. Build-up: patience from the defensive third to goal threat. Direct: fast bypass of the press. Attacking: final third reached. Midfield: territorial, but didn’t get all the way. STL City is 6th in shots; 2nd in goals.

6th in shots doesn't sound amazing, but STL City is 3rd in shot differential and tops in goals by four. That is what matters. That is what makes them special.

As a reminder from my recent WGCF Men's World Cup article, Individual Play does not mean dribbling around four players and finishing top binz. It means being scrappy, usually around goal, and scoring on busted plays, rebounds, deflected passes, and such. I start with Zone 17 goals and xG. Bingo!

If you've spoken with me in-depth about your MLS team, the thing you will get tired of hearing me ask is "why are you special?". That last viz tells us why STL City is special. But we keep digging. And here we look at our Sequence Attack Types. They win on 2nd chances and progressed play. Special.

@ellabrockway.bsky.social

You'll have to bear with me, as I don't usually focus on one team to illustrate the selected metric for FSD, but this time, I'm making an exception. If I look at my two-way Where Goals Come From categories, you can get a bit of a clue where to look. And that is the +9 GD on Individual Play.

Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis reposted

Ella Brockway

Goodbye, goodbye, goodbye, Rodman Rule / HIP Rule / Whatever You Want to Call It Criteria, you were bigger than the whole sky

theguardian.comNWSL drops controversial criteria around ‘Rodman Rule’ in settlement with NWSLPAThe terms of the agreement eliminates the previous eligibility requirements, which had ranged from USWNT minutes to appearances on marketability lists

Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis reposted

Nate Gilman

@nrgilman.bsky.social

We've gotta talk about MLS defending (or lack thereof) after this season. The four worst defensive teams in 2026 currently account of four of the worst five team defensive seasons since 2013, which is as far back as @americansocceranalysis.com's database goes.

Maybe it's my male-pattern blindness, but I can't tell that the floor setting on the vacuum is any better on the hardwood floor than the carpet settings. In fact, the shag setting might even work the best.

Introducing "NWSL Stat Dump"! I'll use this to share NWSL-specific updates on topics I share on some of my Friday Stat Dumps for MLS. NWSL Stat Dump: I was asked if I had the Shot Key Pass Chain g+ leaders available for NWSL, and I do. What is that, you ask? Keep on reading...

And to help see volume vs. value, here are the top players by total key passes, secondary key passes, and tertiary key passes.

Hope you've enjoyed the official inaugural NWSL Stat Dump. If there is a stat that you've seen me post about from the MLS side that you'd like to see for NWSL, be sure to let me know. Is USL next? Let me know if you'd like that.

When we move back to the key passers, we find the players are changing a bit. Kenza Dali takes the overall spot here, and the Passing g+ top spot, followed by Jónsdóttir. Dribbling before the pass is Sophia Wilson, followed by Banda. Receiving before making the pass is Wilson and Jónsdóttir.

Secondary Key Pass Chains can start to pick up some deeper creative players like 8s, 6s and fullbacks. Yazmeen Ryan takes the top spot here, and creates a lot of value through receiving in good spots and then dribbling into better spots. Your top passer here is Riley Jackson.

And if you just want to know who the NWSL leaders are, I'll give that to you right here. These are the top 35 players for Shot Key Pass Chains and how they contribute to each of these three chain types. We use @americansocceranalysis.com's Goals Added (g+) to determine the values.

I think it is interesting to identify players who are better at various aspect of creating g+ value in these chains. The top Shooter Chain g+ goes to Trinity Rodman, but she's not the highest in any of the three g+ categories in the chain. Shooting / Dribbling g+: S. Wilson Receiving g+: E. Ijeh

Think of this like Shot Contributions, but with each part of the shot chain having a value contributing to goal probability. There are three chains: * Shooter Chain: Receive → Dribble → Shoot * Key Pass Chain: Receive → Dribble → Key Pass * Secondary Key Pass Chain: Receive → Dribble → 2nd Key Pass

@beninquiring.bsky.social

This is very cool. Similar to my linebreaking pass logic, but practical for any type of forward pass.

Kieran Doyle@kierdoyle.bsky.social

Goofing around with a metric on players who are good at receiving the ball and able to turn and play forward (and passers who enable it). Here's my first simple pass, just forward pass (>5m and < 45 degrees from center) + forward action. There's too many wide players so I gotta play with it.

Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis reposted

Ben 🔔🧛‍♂️🎃🦇🍬

futi@futi.live

Hell is measurable.

Let the launch angle analysis begin in this sport.

NBC Sports Soccer@nbcsportsoccer.bsky.social

WHAT AN INSANE GOLAZO FROM HALF FIELD BY DIEGO GÓMEZ!

Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis reposted

Kieran Doyle

@kierdoyle.bsky.social

First time early crosses >>>>

andré, but scarier@andre-carlisle.bsky.social

this assist from shores, sheesh

Name a better duo than Messi and a one-two. I’ll wait.

Soccerwise@soccerwisehq.bsky.social

MESSI MAGIC 🐐 WHAT IS THERE EVEN TO SAY?

Martin Ojeda just reverse spin kicked a ball into the goal. I don't think I've ever seen a goal like that before.

This is it. bsky.app/profile/matt...

Matthew Doyle@mattdoyle.bsky.social

Puskas contender here.

Are the hot teams being slowed down a bit: St. Louis, Seattle, and Philly? Maybe, and now we'll see which teams, including these, can really end the season playing their best coming into the MLS Cup playoffs. For my money, the final run starts today.

I've now stacked Shooter g+ Chain, Key Pass g+ Chain and Secondary Key Pass g+ Chain together. While Evander isn't at the very top, that he generates as much value from the key pass chain as the shooter chain, is definitely elite. He is the top player in both the key pass and 2nd key pass chains.

RedsHotLockout@redshotcorner.bsky.social

Evander is elite.

Apologies, this chart says "Key Pass Chain g+", but it is actually "Secondary Key Pass Chain g+". I corrected the chart title in case you want to share this with anyone. With the smaller values, you might see some "0" on bars. That just means the total is a decimal under 0.1.

Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis@jamonm.bsky.social

Without further ado, here are your full Secondary Key Pass g+ Chain leaders of MLS 2026: (again, the colors here match up to what you will see on a player g+ visualization from ASA.)

Saturday morning version of Friday Stat Dump: Secondary Key Pass g+ Chains. (2nd Key Pass for short) We've been going backwards from shots to see who is adding creation value in the chain. Last week, we looked at the Key Pass g+ Chain. bsky.app/profile/jamo...

Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis@jamonm.bsky.social

Now, we can put the Key Pass g+ Chain together and find the top players. Receiving here is for the Secondary Key Pass not the Key Pass. The Key Pass g+ Receiving is given to the shooter. If you have a question about this, let me know. (...aaaand, we have our first negative. lol.)

Without further ado, here are your full Secondary Key Pass g+ Chain leaders of MLS 2026: (again, the colors here match up to what you will see on a player g+ visualization from ASA.)

We could do this next week with tertiary key passes. I'm not going to, as the values drop off a good bit. Many positive actions in this area have a g+ of like 0.0002. That's what EPV models identify, because the vast majority most of these actions produce nothing in the end. Enjoy the games! /end

Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis@jamonm.bsky.social

In this chain, I expect to see some value created off the dribble. The values are not really high, but in the middle of the pitch, there are a lot of negative or near-zero g+ values that weigh some of this down. Your top g+ Dribblers before the secondary key pass:

As I mentioned last week, the receiving in the chain can be a little confusing, because the secondary key passer is actually receiving the *tertiary* key pass. Yep. (I know your eyes are rolling to the back of your head right now.) But this lets us complete the chain.

Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis@jamonm.bsky.social

In there, we begin to see players who are classified as CMs, DMs, and FBs. I hate to just dump a bunch of charts on you, but I have a suspicion many of you may want to see this by position. So here is the breakout of top players at CM/DM/FB/CB (they can be in multiple, like Beau Leroux).

(Paging @joeclowery.bsky.social for the CB list there) Now, we want to look at who is creating the most value from those 2nd key passes, so we'll go back to looking at g+ Passing to understand that. Remember our chain is: Receive, dribble (optional), pass, so this is the last action in it.

Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis@jamonm.bsky.social

Can we go deeper in the chain and find value? I think so! We want to identify players making the plays that create valuable key passes. Quite often the penultimate pass (or carry) is the one that unlocks the defense and creates the ability to have a key pass to begin with. 2nd Key Pass leaders:

@americansocceranalysis.com

Late notice, but Friday Stat Dump will come out tomorrow morning.

Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis reposted

American Soccer Analysis

Been a lot of chatter about how the upcoming MLS schedule change is going to affect play on the field. @kierdoyle.bsky.social decided to look exactly how. www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2026/10...

americansocceranalysis.comWinter Is Coming — American Soccer AnalysisFor reasons unbeknownst to me, the algorithm decided to surface a lot of people talking about the upcoming change in the MLS schedule for the 2027/28 season. Maybe it’s the crisp fall air, the departu...