Andrew Sinclair

Evolving towards a more tolerant society would be better for all of us. We should expect all humans to be... human, to make errors, to be complicated, to have flaws. As long as we are talking about ordinary people living ordinary lives, we should leave each other alone a lot more often. 1/3

Alex Pretti's mother says the federal government lied about her son: "Not only was it wrong, it was shameful, unfair, [and] unacceptable," Susan Pretti said. "We want to clear our son's name. We want the world to understand who Alex really was."

Don’t forget to vote.

The editors of @epsjournal.bsky.social are accepting proposals for Special Issues in 2027 on the theme of: 'The political challenges facing the world today'. Find out how to contribute to a special issue - https://cup.org/47WB5pk DEADLINE - 31st of October 2026

So far, remarkably high turnout by young Black voters in Georgia. Eye-popping chart.

You would have great colleagues. —>

Pomona College in California is effectively acquiring the neighboring Claremont Graduate University. www.chronicle.com/article/pomo...

NPS!

Jamie L. Carson & Maximillian B. Whitford have written a post based on their new @pspolisci.bsky.social article for @lseusablog.bsky.social - https://cup.org/4yr9Kqh Read the PS article #OpenAccess here - https://cup.org/4jWXJVT

I do also think that empirical research *generally* sheds reasonable doubt on whether political professionals accurately predict what issue messages -- for example, the anti-trans ones that consultants seem to be recommending to some Democratic candidates this cycle -- actually land, i.e.,

Over 2,000 alumni from Vivek’s all-boys catholic high school in Cincinnati have signed and circulated a petition demanding that he pull the ad and issue a public apology for “ignoring the moral responsibilities” of his Jesuit education. I think he’s pretty cooked.

I am alarmed by how many people seem to treat the election result as a foregone conclusion. Vote and take friends with you.

The problem people have is that all the interesting cases are close. No one says “ah ha, polling fails!” when something expected to win with 74% gets 71%.

“3. You attempt to put an end to a manuscript. Yet no matter how many times you get rid of it, a malevolent force keeps returning it to you with increasingly disturbing revisions. Eventually, the manuscript becomes real and possesses you, making you do terrible things.“

This thread comes to a close... ... as we now have a final result. Let the records show that, with 92% of the vote countywide, Lula is up 3.3%. (Can he end up doubling his 2022 margin?)

We have near final results from Brazil, 99.8% reporting: Lula 51.76% Bolsonaro 48.24% In 2022, Lula beat Bolsonaro's father by 1.8%; so he has nearly doubled his lead. Also, if you followed this thread & enjoyed it... be sure to follow me: I'll be tracking 700 US elections at once in 9 days!

As I've said before, it's only once I became a professor that I realized the entmoot, a meeting that goes on for three days and three nights, was a professor's joke about faculty meetings.

As turnout in Texas nears 3 million votes, Hispanic turnout is now exceeding presidential levels. More Hispanics have voted than did at this point in the 2024 presidential election. What's driving this huge increase? Young voters.

This is ridiculous.

It is going to be an interesting few weeks of American politics.

California used to have competitive elections. In 1994, Republican Governor Pete Wilson championed Prop 187, which among other things, attempted to bar children of undocumented migrants from attending public school. Latino voter registration surged in response, and the state become uncompetitive.

New: Low-info voters, who put Trump in the White House, now look even more anti-Trump than high-info voters, and give Dems bigger margins on the generic ballot. 1 out of 3 Trump voters who can't name the party in charge of Congress now back Dems for 2026. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/poll-low-i...

!!

Forthcoming from a @pspolisci.bsky.social special issue - Forecasting the US Midterm Congressional Elections Without Poll Data - https://cup.org/4zAyCNk - Paul F. Whiteley

This is one of the most holy sh*t stories I’ve ever read in my life. www.vanityfair.com/story/jared-...

Once mass spam texts were made legal, younger donors vanished, leaving a grassroots fundraising machine that subsists on squeezing vulnerable seniors, some of whom give hundreds of times a day. It’s a horrific model. Consultants get generationally wealthy, and the party hollows out its future.

Here’s a piece from me out this AM for MS NOW as part of their partnership with FiftyPlusOne. Trump’s net approval rating is the worst ever for a president heading into a midterm, and the GOP has lost its advantage on handling the economy and immigration www.ms.now/opinion/trum...

This is going to get interesting.

Join us as we cover the midterm results in the most chaotic, engaging, informative way you've ever seen: live spreadsheets and screen shares from my basement. Election-night coverage that's For Sickos, By Sickos. Bookmark this page: open.substack.com/live-stream/...

Huzzah!

I just came back from a talk about this book. It's a genre-breaking braided academic narrative about horrific fires as a result of flamable pjs, the death of the author's daughter, and the meaning of a "life" - which is to say the history of the curriculum vitae. press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo...

“What’s your plan for the Court?” is the only question that matters for 2028 Democratic hopefuls, because if they don’t, the Republican Super Legislature is hatcheting their agenda before it can get off the ground.

👀

Saying the polls are fake a necessary step to insisting the election results are fake

Might be of interest.

?!

In any other admin, this would probably be the most outrageous official statement ever made by a sitting FCC director: Strongly implying that the government forbids broadcast networks from reporting on the president's falling poll numbers. (Sorry to paste from twitter but that's where he posts.)

Meaningful graphics in NY Times today: 1. Trump was never popular with young people, just momentarily more popular than his own unpopularity. 2. Trump is historically unpopular. The results for Truman might be discounted by modern polling standards. Bush was in a disastrous war.

This article offers a district-level forecast of the 2026 Midterm Elections. Check it out: tinyurl.com/4z8263we ft. @peterenns.bsky.social, Leigh Farah, Thomas Gareau-Pacquette, & Claudia L. Miner #polisky

A remarkable comment from a US Senator.