Ryan Enos

Good essay here from @juliaazari.bsky.social. Since Julia is in part asking for other social scientists to weigh in here, I thought I'd add some thoughts that have been germinating in my head for while. The main point is that the base of evidence that anti-trans ads 'work' is paper thin. (1/2)

Here's the Texas early vote change relative to 2022 by county by % Trump 2024 vote. I've labeled the Rio Grande valley counties with large Hispanic communities

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Good results for democracy yesterday. But it would be great if the pro-democracy parties (which right now means left-wing in many places) would build stable winning coalitions so that we wouldn't have to hold our breath every 2 to 4 years.

Coastal cities swing left, sparsely populated interior swings right

My expertise in political astrology tells me this is a good omen for defeating right-wing authoritarianism in the United States.

Cheesecake Factory discourse and going all in on racism are both signs of having nothing to offer and a fundamental disrespect for the electorate so that you think such rhetoric will overcome having nothing to offer.

Solid list. Although any place in Disney World has them all beat.

This is a chilling hate rally. And, just in case you think this doesn't matter to you, the President of the United States is also mocking the idea of Constitutional liberties.

Geeze, tell me about it. Read point 3. Glory to the nation, all else is not allowed and those speaking as such should be reported to the speech police.

He goes on to say that Trump has done "more for humanity and more for America than any other President ever." It is a sign of authoritarianism and a corruption of democracy that even when Trump is deeply unpopular and everyone knows it, syncophants still compete to kiss his ass the most.

Thank you to Georgetown McCourt School of Public Policy for hosting the second annual Political Analytics Conference. Pictured: the State of Polling 2026 panel with Ruth Igielnik, @gelliottmorris.com, Patrick Ruffini and Verasight co-founder @peterenns.bsky.social, moderated by Michael Bailey.

But this on the voters are myopic slide.

This is going to launch (important) hand-wringing.

There are 90 non-overlapping 50km radius circles with over 10 million people: India - 27 China - 16 Europe - 4 USA - 2

People said this same thing about Irish, African Americans, Chinese, and every other group that newly entered the public stage. It always looks foolish in retrospect. And I admire those who trailblaze and put up with the cost of such bigotry. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/23/u...

Even by Trump standards, this is staggering corruption. Direct payments from foreign princes. Given that Congress wont, even though it should, impeach over this, they should demand Kushner be removed from government roles (official or not).

I truly admire Muslim public servants in the United States who choose to serve knowing that they will be relentlessly subject to this bigotry.

Gender studies for the win.

What would be even better is if they enjoyed the basic human right of voting for the government with authority over them.

The thing about these numbers is that they continue a downward trend, and yet many voters are just tuning in now while Trump and his surrogates are visibly diminished and their messaging is way worse than it was 24 months ago, when they last paid attention. The poll numbers may get worse.

This is remarkably dangerous. Polls are one way we understand the integrity of election results. They are a tool of democracy. Here is a vengeful regime official implying that networks can be punished for polls they don't like.

The trends here are unmistakable. And keep in mind that a lot of voters are going to come online for the first time in the next two weeks.

Some recent thoughts on "Open Inquiry": www.thecrimson.com/article/2026...

Read this paragraph. It is corruption on an unprecedented scale. A whole industry of selling presidential power. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/20/u...

Innocent people were killed by a belligerent foe of the United States because of this choice made by the President and the richest man in the world. It is gross failure and they should both be stripped of all power.

These two are related: 1) Trump is very unpopular, and it's been sustained period of some his lowest approval ratings ever ahead of the midterms. 2) Folks are increasingly concerned that Trump will try to use irregular means to thwart the midterms if Dems perform strongly.

I know we are well past the point of needing to know this, but it is astounding how unfit this man is for this position.

Don't love this result, but also don't love the survey question. It is double-barreled, asking people to both assign value to empathy AND to "a healthy society" versus "God's truth". A deeply religious person is likely going to choose the latter, even if they see value in empathy.

The government broadcasting violence to intimidate voters is a clear threat to democracy.

We will look back (likely in the not too distant future) and hold institutions that capitulated to the authoritarian attack in disdain. You can justify it however you want, but it is clear what is happening here. www.insidehighered.com/news/quick-t...

Remarkable visual on the collapse of Trump's support. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/19/u...

As a faculty member struggling to determine the role of AI in research and teaching, I found this perspective useful.

" It may be easier to let it self-destruct over the next two years, but that only makes it more likely to come back. Our duty is to make this vile racism weaker ... to make sure it is relegated to the dustbin of history." Important @ryanenos.bsky.social piece. ryandenos.substack.com/p/trump-has-...

This is emblematic of the sorry state of the GOP in many deep blue states. It's not good for democracy. www.bostonglobe.com/2026/10/18/m...

This is a depressing read on a chemical engineering Ph.D. who has applied for thousands of jobs over the last two years (corporate positions and postdocs) and is still looking. It's well worth your time.

Beautiful forecasting page from Gary King and company. gking.harvard.edu/electit/#our...