Joseph Hefner

Joseph Hefner

@josephjefe.bsky.social

You'll see mostly Chiefs and NFL analytics and graphics here. I produce work for @KCSportsNetwork. JosephJefe on most social media platforms Website: https://www.JefesHandiwork.com/

1.8K followers196 following1.4K posts

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Pinned Post: I mostly create and post NFL graphics that (hopefully) help people to understand the game better. I also create apps for my more popular graphics so anyone can get them, without needing to request them from me. Remember to tag me when you post them! Website: www.jefeshandiwork.com

KC @ SEA Injury Report Chiefs down two starters in OT Moore and WR Rice. Another starter is questionable (Sneed). Seahawks down one starter (LB Thomas), with three more questionable (Emmanwori, Lawrence, and Nwosu). They are also down Charbonnet, their second string RB, and Surratt, their #3 LB.

KC @ SEA Gamecard! Chiefs O is top 10 in every metric but pass rate, and top 5 in 5. Chiefs D is also very good. Seahawks D is top 3 in basically everything. Their biggest "struggle" is late down success rate, and they're 10th there. Their O has not been good, though.

Chiefs defense should be able to stifle the Seahawks, but the Chiefs offense will find it more difficult to move the ball than it has been in previous weeks. Chiefs have a better PPG, point differential, and turnover ratio. A turnover or two could easily swing this in the Chiefs favor.

Joseph Hefner reposted

-- WEEK 7 #NFL ๐Ÿˆ Playoff Leverage -- Here you can see 1.) how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game, and 2.) the combined playoff leverage of the teams involved in each game, sorted by kickoff time.

๐Ÿšจ New Graphic Alert! Using @ftnfantasy.com's new route data, this shows every route run on each non-screen pass play by KC in week 6. Looking at the first play, they were in a 3x1 formation, Worthy lined up furthest left, with Kelce and Gray inside, Armstrong right, and Walker in the backfield.

The check โœ… indicates a target that was caught. The red โŒ indicates a target that was not caught. The background colors indicate alignment: Blue background = aligned to left of offensive line Gold background = aligned in backfield Purple background = aligned to right of offensive line

FTN tracks skill player positioning from left to right, in order, at the time of the snap, so after any motion would have occurred. This graphic does not indicate if motion happened, or who went in motion, just their location at the time the ball was snapped.

Chiefs Defensive Personnel The Chiefs D spent ~80% of the game in nickel or base. They were exceptional in both. Dime was a struggle, but that's probably due to a single incredible Herbert deep pass to QJ. I cannot figure out the mix between Hicks and Gilman at the second safety spot.

Gillotte with more snaps than usual for him. RMT with less than 50%, in nickel and dime. Only one base rep. Peter Woods with just nickel and base, no dime reps.

Chiefs offensive personnel: Week 6 90% of the game was in either 11p or 12p, and the EPA/play for those groupings was outstanding. The others? Not so much... With Rice out, Royals and PS call up Armstrong got the #2 and #2 WR spots. Armstrong was used in almost exclusively 3 WR sets.

Can Your Team Win The Super Bowl? The 49ers have earned the top spot, jumping a full 2.6 percentage points. The Rams had an even larger drop (-4), as they fell to 2-4. The Bills and Chiefs are tied at 2. Chiefs play the 6th ranked Seahawks this week. We could see significant movement from that.

Joseph Hefner reposted

By DVOA, this is the Kansas City Chiefs' best start through 5 games since Mahomes' first year as the starter.

Joseph Hefner reposted

Lots of questions here, chief of which is: Did *anyone* step in and say this seems like a bad idea?

Ian Rapoport@rapsheet.bsky.social

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, who is out for the season after several blood clots were revealed in his lungs. Before the London game, Hurts was in the hospital until 4 am and did not sleep because sleep was a risk. He played the game without having slept. Crazy.

Kenneth Walker III is averaging 133 rushing YPG. At that pace, he'll be just 18 yards shy of his season long prop after KC's Week 8 game vs the Broncos, and will break 1,000 yards rushing in Week 9 vs the Jets. Just wild numbers from him.

Joseph Hefner@josephjefe.bsky.social

Betting Lines and Benchmarks The Chiefs are halfway to their season long win total just 5 games into the season. Every offensive line is green Chris Jones finally got (half of) a sack!! The Chiefs defense got sacks for the first time since week 1! Please keep it up, KC!

Betting Lines and Benchmarks The Chiefs are halfway to their season long win total just 5 games into the season. Every offensive line is green Chris Jones finally got (half of) a sack!! The Chiefs defense got sacks for the first time since week 1! Please keep it up, KC!

Chiefs Defensive Coverage Conner spent most of the game in the box or at FS Delane was out wide, and gave up only one reception, the 57 yarder to Johnston Not the best day for Nick Bolton ๐Ÿ˜ฌ Sneed is still the primary slot defender CRW splits between box snaps and slot snaps

I do find it interesting that Spags has gone away from having two safeties that play 95%+ of the defensive snaps. Conner is the sole full time S, with Hicks, Gillman, and even CRW splitting the second safety snaps. Some of those are 3rd safety snaps, but still more of a split than is normal

Chiefs Pass Catchers Worthy took the lead with Rice and Thornton out. 7 catches, 73 yards, and the best he's looked all season Royals also with a big bump in snaps, mostly on the outside UDFA Andrew Armstrong with the 3rd most passing snaps Cyrus Allen with just 5 snaps, but 2 catches for 27 yards

I've curated a list of WR's Andy Reid might be interested in as a trade target. Here are all the current WR's who: ~Participated in the NFL Combine ~Weigh 180 or less ~Had a forty time of under 4.4

LAC @ KC Gamecard! Chiefs are heavy favorites, averaging nearly two TD's more than the Chargers, who, despite getting 5 turnovers off the Bills, have a net -5 turnovers LAC O is 28th or worse in 7 of 11 statistical categories This should be a bloodbath, so I expect a close game until the 4th qtr

๐—ก๐—™๐—Ÿ ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ ๐Ÿฒ ๐—ข๐—ฑ๐—ฑ๐˜€ ๐ŸŽฏ ๐Ÿ”’ ๐—Ÿ๐—ผ๐—ฐ๐—ธ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ: LA -12.5 vs ARI ๐ŸŽฒ ๐—ฃ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ธ โ€™๐—˜๐—บ ๐—ฆ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น: GB -1.5 vs DAL ๐Ÿ’ฅ ๐—ฆ๐—ต๐—ผ๐—ผ๐˜๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜ ๐—š๐—ฎ๐—บ๐—ฒ: DAL @ GB (53.5 total) ๐Ÿ˜ด ๐——๐—ฒ๐—ณ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—š๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฑ: SEA @ DEN (37.5 total) What game are you watching this week? ๐Ÿ‘€

NFC Seeding Chart! The 49ers and Vikings just keep winning Giants remain 3rd overall, just like we all predicted Panthers remain 4th, just like we all predicted Packers finally fulfilling their preseason expectations Eagles have fallen on hard times recently. Sad

AFC Seeding Chart! Chiefs remain #1 Ravens have scratched all the way back to #2 after dropping to 8th in week 2 NE in 5th after a drop to 11th in week 3 3 AFC West teams in the playoffs right now Chargers dropped from 4th ranked by preseason SB odds to ranked 15th now.

Can Your Team Win The Super Bowl? It is wild that the Rams, at 2-3, are still atop this chart, over the 5-0 49ers. Rams and Bills both lost SB odds following their MNF game where each team tried desperately to lose. 49ers bumped up from 4 to 2 (tied for 1st) Big pileup after the Jags at 7th.

Rookies Pressuring the Quarterback David Bailey leads all rookies with 3 sacks. Sonny Styles and Caleb Downs both with 2. R Mason Thomas with 1 sack, but leads all rookies with 16 pressures, 14 earned. Cashius Howell is second with 9 pressures, 7 earned, but 0 sacks, so doesn't show up here.

Trench Warfare Pressure data from Chiefs @ Raiders Goddamn, Karlaftis! Have yourself a day! R. Mason Thomas too Raiders left and right tackles were trash. Caliendo only gave up 2 pressures. Moore 5, Benson 3. 6 of those combined pressures came from Crosby. Pressure Data from @ftnfantasy.com

Trench Warfare Pressure data from Chiefs @ Raiders Goddamn, Karlaftis! Have yourself a day! R. Mason Thomas too Raiders left and right tackles were trash. Caliendo only gave up 2 pressures. Moore 5, Benson 3. 6 of those combined pressures came from Crosby. Pressure Data from @ftnfantasy.com

๐—ก๐—™๐—Ÿ ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ ๐Ÿฑ ๐—ข๐—ฑ๐—ฑ๐˜€ ๐ŸŽฏ ๐Ÿ”’ ๐—Ÿ๐—ผ๐—ฐ๐—ธ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ: DAL -9.5 vs TB ๐ŸŽฒ ๐—ฃ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ธ โ€™๐—˜๐—บ ๐—ฆ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น: CHI -2.5 @ GB ๐Ÿ’ฅ ๐—ฆ๐—ต๐—ผ๐—ผ๐˜๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜ ๐—š๐—ฎ๐—บ๐—ฒ: BUF @ LA (54.5 total) ๐Ÿ˜ด ๐——๐—ฒ๐—ณ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—š๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฑ: HOU @ TEN (37.5 total) What game are you watching this week? ๐Ÿ‘€

I absolutely love that two of the Chiefs division opponents are in that "ABSOLUTELY NOT!!!" group there at the far right ๐Ÿคฃ Not so happy that the Raiders are at the far left, but eh.

Denny Carter@dennycarter.bsky.social

I don't think Jim Harbaugh has any place in the modern NFL. He's a dinosaur in every way, especially when it comes to fourth down decision making.

NFC Seeding Chart 49ers at the top, Vikings at 2, both undefeated Ladies and Gentlemen: the New York Giants! At 4 is... the Panthers?! Sure enough! Saints the biggest fallers, from 4th to 14th. Falcons have been all over the bottom half of the board

AFC Seeding Chart Chiefs remain the rightful owners of the 1 seed Jags a surprising 2 seed Browns the biggest overall climbers, from 16 all the way to 4 Raiders only fell 1 spot following their loss Maybe I should add a Week 0 to this, with preseason Super Bowl odds, to give initial positions?

Can Your Team Win The Super Bowl? Revamped this graphic to use comets! Lemme know what you think Rams reclaimed sole possession of the top spot after the Bills fell to the Pats Jags jumped a whopping 1.6 percentage points Eagles with biggest drop at -1.2 Chiefs back in top 5

Chiefs Pass Catchers! Tyquan with 8 targets, 5 receptions, 111 yards, 2 TD's, and one brutally dislocated ankle ๐Ÿ˜ข He spent 66% of his routes out wide, and 33% in the slot. Worthy was the only other pass catcher to break 20 yards. He had the same wide/slot distribution as Worthy, as did Royals.

Chiefs Defensive Alignments vs Raiders Fulton the only DB who logged 0 slot snaps, though Sneed handled 59% of them, giving up 89 yards and 8 catches. Nick Bolton had a bad day. I assume most of that came against the TE's, who ate the Chiefs D alive. Shoutout Nwankpa for the INT to seal the game!

Betting Lines and Benchmarks! The Chiefs are 4-0, and 38% of the way to their 10.5 wins line going into a bye week. Mahomes is on track to throw for 700+ more than his line, and 13+ more TD's. Walker is already at 57% of his season rushing yards line, and 53% of his rushing TD line.

I'm guessing Worthy will likely get his receiving yards now, given the injuries to both Rice and Thornton this week. Chris Jones and the entire Chiefs defensive line needs to start converting their good pressure numbers into real sacks.

Bump for Sunday!

Joseph Hefner@josephjefe.bsky.social

Game Preview Card for KC@LV Both teams are 3-0, both are averaging 29.3 PPG. LV has +5 net turnovers. KC +3 The Chiefs stats are green on offense and defense, excepting pass rate. The Raiders defense is fully green, while their offense has had significant struggles rushing the ball.