Laurence

Laurence

@laurence1084.bsky.social

Increase your confidence interval.

633 followers796 following1.2K posts

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The Oct. 10 version. The situation has improved moderately for the @democrats.org in both chambers.

Laurence@laurence1084.bsky.social

@gelliottmorris.com Making an (inconsistently updated) table of all the model and prediction market forecasts of the midterms I could find. Here’s the latest update:

“THIS IS EVIL!!!!!” Well, yes. The Paxton campaign is.

Laura Bassett@lebassett.bsky.social

Team Paxton appears to have sent out fake mailers to Texas voters impersonating a trans student group and claiming to want to help kids secretly transition. The actual group said they had nothing to do with it, despite the mailers copying their aesthetic, and the address traces to a random UPS box.

This is wonderful news. I wouldn’t use this as an opportunity to further go after Elon Musk — the offense was to shut it off, not to restore it. We should encourage him to do good things, and not do bad things.

The Kyiv Independent@kyivindependent.com

⚡️Starshield operations restored to speeds of more than 400 km/h, Ukraine's Defense Ministry says. "We record a speed of more than 400 kilometers per hour, the connection is stable," the ministry said.

Best moment: the knowing laughter in the audience when Scott was asked what his idea of a night out in town was like. He’s not shy about enjoying the city’s vibrant gay nightclub scene, and indeed, he mentioned the newly reopened OASIS.

Laurence reposted

Periodic reminder that the biggest scandal in American history outside of Watergate involved a grand total of $9 million (inflation adjusted) changing hands & it resulted in resignations, convictions, jail time, and new legislation, and in the Trump administration that amount is a rounding error

Catherine Rampell@crampell.bsky.social

Billions of dollars’ worth of contracts predicting oil would fall and the S&P 500 would rise were placed about 15 minutes before Trump announced a U-turn on Iran in a post on Truth Social. CFTC staff began to investigate...then were told to lay off. www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

What about a mini-mushroom cloud over Mar-a-Lago instead?

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Trump: "With the war, it's just artificial. It's a little bit high. It's a small price to pay ... let them take out Los Angeles, let them take out San Diego. This is a very small price to pay."

This is the result when you have a Groyper-occupied Government. Regular national socialist messaging paired with the corruption of a West African junta.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

absolutely demented. like a scene from a horror movie

One of the most important and informative threads you'll read in months.

"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux@bretdevereaux.bsky.social

I want to expand on this in a short thread. Fascism sucks. It is also not going away: it is an effectively permanent part of modern representative politics because it is an effectively permanent part of human nature. We have to be prepared to push back against it, basically forever.

Ned Resnikoff@resnikoff.bsky.social

"Her platform focuses on technocratic solutions like the theoretically best possible zoning policies rather than building power for the working-class by challenging capital." Good thing LA's zoning status quo is not devastating the city's working class or anything.

Not pictured: protesters behind me holding up signs accusing Scott of not caring about women, immigrants, or the US/Israeli bombs committing genocide. We blocked them out with our (far more numerous) signs, as we did the anti-trans lunatics who also accused him of not caring about women.

Awesome to see my state senator elected to Congress (albeit in am adjacent district), in spite of a $5.3 million campaign to install a vote for more military aid to the Likud.

VoteHub@votehub.com

VoteHub projects Aisha Wahab to win the California U.S. House District 14 election.

Laurence reposted

Mamdani is succeeding in part by projecting joy Ossoff is succeeding in part by projecting steely ferocity We’re in a moment when attitude is nearly as powerful as ideology, because we all need courage. And these are two ways of summoning it

This is actually the Korean Central News Agency. Except Ri Chun-hee is fucking Chairman Kim.

Decoding Fox News@decodingfoxnews.bsky.social

This is Natalie Harp, the close aide to President Trump. These clips are from 2021 when she worked at OAN. She ended her program with a daily Bible quote. Sometimes she swapped out the Bible for a quote from Trump leading with "And remember what Trump said..."

There were 7 battleground states in the last election, which means that citizens of 43 states were simply ignored. This system doesn’t give rural states like Wyoming, North Dakota, or Vermont “a voice.”

Eli Friedmann @eligit.bsky.social

Yep. Regardless of whether she lost the popular vote, the electoral college fundamentally distorts the political process. Candidates frantically running from one "swing state" to another rather than taking a larger view to benefit the nation as a whole.

Putting in a strong recommendation for “A Time to Love and A Time to Die” by Erich Maria Remarque, better known as the author of All Quiet on the Western Front. There are few who can paint as full a portrait of every character they name — no matter how minor — as Remarque can.

What a game. Of note: based on what I could find, Argentina taking 117 minutes to register a single shot is the longest a team has ever taken to do so in any World Cup match since at least 1966.

Perfectly stated.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Ossoff: "Here's what's going to happen tonight: the world's most famous sore loser will deliver a prime-time presidential sour grapes address to pursue his 6-year-old grievances about the 2020 election, while his war in the Middle East spirals out of control & the cost of living continues to rise.."

Laurence reposted

absolutely insane story, and yeah, just looking at this chart... with the exception of maybe two people, this entire class was cheating like motherfuckers

Laurence reposted

I think Democrats like Cory Booker should take a hard look in the mirror and consider why Jeff Bezos loves their tax cut proposals so much. Billionaires would love to see a weak state with a gutted fiscal capacity.

Laurence reposted

this is really heartwarming. two men exchanging symbolic tokens of things the other has no interest in (football, peace)

Christopher Hale@christopherjhale.bsky.social

Pope Leo XIV gifted Marco Rubio a plant of peace. In return, Marco Rubio gave the pope a crystal football. The pope’s response? “Wow. Okay.”

Laurence reposted

>Tim Pool, Dave Rubin, Benny Johnson were all on Russian payroll >Orban loses in Hungary >Rod Dreher immediately leaves Budapest >The Daily Wire fires half their staff was all the right-wing conspiracy posting about USAID just massive fucking projection?

Laurence reposted

i didn't realize how literally she was pulling wires without understanding them. manually typing shit into the prompter lmao

Laurence reposted

4 new Senate race ratings changes over at Cook Political, and each one is a doozy in its own right: #NCSen: Toss Up -> Lean D #GASen: Toss Up -> Lean D #OHSen: Lean R -> Toss Up #NESen: Solid R -> Likely R Further evidence that the Senate map is shifting left in real-time.

Laurence reposted

The University of Michigan has been measuring consumer sentiment since 1952. We just got the first Iran-afflicted measure for April, and it's at the lowest level ever recorded.

Laurence reposted

I have seen one good example of this plate

Kevin M. Levin@civilwarmemory.bsky.social

'Gov. Spanberger signed a bill to end the renewal of commemorative Robert E. Lee license plates in Virginia. A portion of the sale of these plates has previously supported the neo-Confederate organization Sons of Confederate Veterans.' #CivilWarMemory www.wavy.com/news/virgini...