Magenta

newjerseyglobe.comFDU poll: Democrats lead Republicans by 23 points in New Jersey congressional races - New Jersey GlobeDemocrats hold a commanding 23-point lead over Republicans in New Jersey's congressional races, according to a new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll

omg, a poll with an LV screen that projects an electorate that is in line with early voting numbers how remarkable is that

Hyde T. Voltyge@hydevoltyge.bsky.social

D+23, 55 - 32 GCB with likely voters in New Jersey Very likely / already voted is D+26, 59 - 33 Is this shocking? New Jersey was D+15.7 GCB in 2020 D+4.5 year, the 23 here is 7.3 points right D+11.8 is a perfectly good GCB guess. This is a SANE poll at last. newjerseyglobe.com/polling/fdu-...

40m

i do think that the independent share is gonna be quite a bit higher than that though it wouldn't affect the topline very much, but that is my one nitpick

Worlds Biggest Josh Turek Hater

36m

there is no way that independents make up less than 20% of the electorate an indie turnout drop would correspond to a GOP turnout drop anyway (which is what is currently happening to an extent, but not really happening in this poll) but also i'm just complaining just to complain and i'll shut up

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Hyde T. Voltyge

@hydevoltyge.bsky.social

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@jtenroon.bsky.social

Replying to @magentab.bsky.social

Double digit ticket splitting for the in-power party senator whose approval is like -20 in a D+8 state with an increasingly unfavorable differential turnout

low key, i only like half believe in this take but i have to stand on my principles

Magenta@magentab.bsky.social

can i just say that i personally find projecting double digit ticket-splitting anywhere in the mid-2020s kind of ridiculous it obviously does happen, but you would usually be better off predicting it to not happen over 90% of the time atp

all ticket-splitting is fake in the end

this applies to maine, and lowkey also applies to georgia

how am i supposed to take large-scale ticket-splitting seriously as a concept when these two races didn't even have a double digit gap between them

whatever happened to confidence in one's methodology without the fear of being wrong smh

Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc)@purrtah.bsky.social

Lol

we did this with brazil like two seconds ago

10h

i see that everybody is coming around to marist polling being on fraudwatch

10h

i would want to see troy jackson outrun pingree though, just so i can see nobody call susan collins a strong candidate ever again

12h

the milwaukee brewers are honoring olivia chow by winning by double digits

12h

it's happening again

Magenta@magentab.bsky.social

experience: brewers baseball

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Jon Bois

@jonbois.bsky.social

21h

"heeeeere's johnny!!!" - johnny shining

wildstein can still be funny sometimes

Joe@electionsjoe.bsky.social

Current TOTAL New Jersey In-Person Early Vote Returns: 🟦 Dem: 56% (-1.1%) 🟥 GOP: 25.6% (+0.6%) 🟨 IND: 18.4% (+0.4%) 2025 FINAL In-person Early Vote Returns: 🟦 Dem: 41.6% 🟥 GOP: 35.4% 🟨 IND: 23.0%

Magenta reposted

Replying to @magentab.bsky.social

Crazy

jeff van drew live reaction:

Joe@electionsjoe.bsky.social

Crazy

the good news for republicans is that they did slightly better in IPEV today compared to yesterday the bad news is that they still lost Day 2 with 55D-26R (as opposed 57D-25R yesterday)

Joe@electionsjoe.bsky.social

this is so blue that it makes me think that van drew is straight up not favored to win atp but i am not really willing to lock that in yet

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23h

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2026 NJ Current Total In-Person Early Vote Returns (2 days): 🟦 Dem: 56% 🟥 GOP: 25.6% 🟨 IND: 18.4% 2025 NJ In-Person Early Vote Returns One Year Ago (2 Days): 🟦Dem: 42.0% 🟥GOP: 38.7% 🟨IND: 19.3%

Joe@electionsjoe.bsky.social

most fan proposals for any baseball team's offseason signings are always the worst things i have ever heard in my life

quick senate predictions based on like two seconds of thought

house predictions are too daunting, i can't do them

@cameroncorduroy.bsky.social

the fact that lula is gonna win by a larger margin than 2022 is deeply insane

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Cameron 🇺🇸🗽🦅

mfw it worked

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🏳️‍🌈🚲Cole🚄🚟

@coleurbanist.bsky.social

Flavio Bolsonaro right now

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther

@corncobanalysis.bsky.social

Lula rn

Magenta@magentab.bsky.social

from the electioncord discord

if you think today is great, just imagine how good midterm day in nine days will be!

from the electioncord discord

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ElectionCord

@electioncord.com

Lula's secret? It could be that he has a hat on in the picture they're using for election results. Maybe Democrats need to wear more hats to ensure victory...

MLC@chicyph80.bsky.social

OMG!!!! Is Lula about to pull this off?!! Serbia and Brazil in the same day?!?!

flavio bolsonaro

top quote posts may be the best bluesky feature ever

so some serious analysis, this may be the most comically blue IPEV day 1 electorate i have seen in NJ compared to 2025, IPEV DEM turnout is UP by 26% (yes, more democrats have voted on 2026 IPEV day 1 compared to 2025) all the while, IPEV GOP turnout is DOWN by 41% on day 1

Joe@electionsjoe.bsky.social

2026 New Jersey Day 1 In-Person Early Vote: 🟦 Dem: 57.1% 🟥 GOP: 25% 🟨 IND: 18% 2025 NJ Day 1 In-Person Early Vote: 🟦 Dem: 42.1% 🟥 GOP: 39.3% 🟨 IND: 18.7%

because day 1 IPEV was so astronomically blue, my personal model to calculate the final NJ senate margin went from D+18 with just mail to D+22 with Day 1 of IPEV included here's the calculation: Mail: D+18.0 (456,525 votes cast) IPEV: D+42.4 (84,091 votes cast) Total: D+21.8

i really have to expect future IPEV days to be better for the GOP, but like there is no way they can possibly get anywhere near back to their 2025 levels at this point and there is also a live chance that it just doesn't get better!

is that good

Joe@electionsjoe.bsky.social

2026 New Jersey Day 1 In-Person Early Vote: 🟦 Dem: 57.1% 🟥 GOP: 25% 🟨 IND: 18% 2025 NJ Day 1 In-Person Early Vote: 🟦 Dem: 42.1% 🟥 GOP: 39.3% 🟨 IND: 18.7%

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2026 New Jersey Day 1 In-Person Early Vote: 🟦 Dem: 57.1% 🟥 GOP: 25% 🟨 IND: 18% 2025 NJ Day 1 In-Person Early Vote: 🟦 Dem: 42.1% 🟥 GOP: 39.3% 🟨 IND: 18.7%

i feel like mark carney is the only person in anglophone democracies that can get away with a snap election call like that, and even he has the instincts to not be trigger-happy

eby was somebody that british columbians felt mild to middling about, and he really thought that the BC NDP polling lead was due to himself and not due to the BC tories being a mess and fractured under findlay

i guess that's the only reason i could think of eby calling the election AFTER findlay resigned and not before