Marcos Huerta

Marcos Huerta

@marcoshuerta.com

Past: PhD in Astrophysics from Rice University -> Science policy at the US Department of Energy. 
Present: Data scientist living in North Carolina.

635 followers901 following663 posts

Another issue: is >99% illuminated a full moon? Because there can be two days in a row with a >99% illuminated somewhat often. A stricter definition (using only the local peak) would make for significantly fewer games played under a full moon, and even smaller number statistics.

The recalculations I have done so far still show giant error bars, but I am working through updating the post - using a better UTC for the moon phase, and probably showing both definitions of full moon.

I have found some problems. One I definitely need to fix: I used UTC midnight for the moon phase. That means a game played at 7pm EDT on July 1 is getting a noon at July 1 UTC which is actually ~8PM EDT June 30. 😕

I covered some of these in my earlier thread but to recap: 7+ run blowouts and "multi-run late inning comebacks" show *some* increase during 2025 full moons, but not they're not statistically significant. I couldn't reproduce the "doubled" increased rate of 450 ft+ homers at all.

Did a Google Cloud ad just claim that the full moon changes baseball stats? That's … nuts and now I'm going to have to join lunar phase data with baseball data to show this is nonsense. I know one study once showed accident/moon correlation but only because the moon coincided with weekends.

View full thread

One caveat is that I'm checking the score after a full inning, so if there are home teams coming back in, for example, the bottom of the 7th after falling behind in the top half, and Google is counting those, that could explain why I can't reproduce the 2025 number from their ad.

Oh my, the ad actually cites "Gemini on Google cloud" … which may explain quite a bit - asking an LLM to find a trend where none exists, of course it'll grab some small-number statistic with giant error bars just to answer the prompt.

Did a Google Cloud ad just claim that the full moon changes baseball stats? That's … nuts and now I'm going to have to join lunar phase data with baseball data to show this is nonsense. I know one study once showed accident/moon correlation but only because the moon coincided with weekends.

View full thread

I have not been able to reproduce "multi-run late inning comebacks rose 34% under a full moon." The closest I found was 54% ± 79% for 2+ run comebacks after 5 innings. Google was exploiting small-number statistics, there were only 172 games during a full moon in 2025.

When looking at all MLB games since 1900, there's no "multi run late inning comeback" change during a full moon that's statistically significant. If anything, comebacks are less common during the full moon.

Marcos Huerta reposted

JUST POSTED: Today at The NYT we are publishing a major investigation into how President Trump used his executive powers to expose millions of Americans to greater cancer risks. A six month-long investigation built on more than 10,000 pages of FOIA records. Read it www.nytimes.com/2026/10/24/c...

nytimes.comHow Trump Gave the Worst Polluters a Free Pass (Gift Article)The president temporarily waived clean-air rules for industrial facilities that spew cancer-causing gases. Then his appointees worked to gut the regulations altogether.

Did a Google Cloud ad just claim that the full moon changes baseball stats? That's … nuts and now I'm going to have to join lunar phase data with baseball data to show this is nonsense. I know one study once showed accident/moon correlation but only because the moon coincided with weekends.

View full thread

From 1900-2025, 7+ run blowouts are <drum roll> 1.3% more frequent during a full moon! 1.3% ± 4.7%. 🫠 I made 1500 fake moons (random periods between 25 and 35 days) and the real full moon's "7+ run blowout" rate since 1900 is about half a sigma from the mean (of ~1.0). 🙄

Next step is to make it easier to compute other stats (total runs scored? homeruns/AB?) Google's other cherry-picked stats were "Home runs 450 ft+"(!) and "multi-run late inning comebacks." The former isn't in my data, but I may be able to construct comebacks from the retrosheet data I'm using.

Did a Google Cloud ad just claim that the full moon changes baseball stats? That's … nuts and now I'm going to have to join lunar phase data with baseball data to show this is nonsense. I know one study once showed accident/moon correlation but only because the moon coincided with weekends.

Ok, I can reproduce the "25% more 7+ run blowouts during a full moon" in 2025 as claimed, but the error bars overlap. They cherry-picked 7+ runs, the effect isn't there at 5+ runs nor 9+ runs. In 2024, no matter the threshold, baseball "blowouts" were more common when *not* a full moon.

I'll build out data for all the seasons I can find: I'd bet money the "blowout" rate will be essentially tied once the S/N ratio gets better with more games. I'm going to need a better lunar source, I've been getting lunar data one year at a time from here... svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5187/

Kids’ Halloween costumes. Remember the glorified garbage bags with pictures of a character on them & a cheap plastic mask from the 80s? Costumes today are soooo much better.

Social media loves talking about how everything is getting worse. But what’s something that you’ve seen get _better_ in your lifetime?

Marcos Huerta reposted

NEW AD: Have you seen these anti-Talarico attack ads? Elon Musk paid for nearly all of them. The world's first trillionaire knows if he drags the most corrupt politician in Texas across the finish line, Ken Paxton will owe him everything. Elon Musk: Texas is not for sale.

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Replying to @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social

We found that as of right now 73% of your campaign donation goes back to the consultants and vendors (!!!), four times more than just 20 years ago. Only 13% to ads. Even I was shocked.

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AOC: "As AI begins to encroach in our society, their goal is to take your cognition away from you. AI's goal is to take your thoughts away from you, your ability to think away from you, so that you become dependent on a machine ... reading books is active resistance"

Marcos Huerta reposted

NEW: A ProPublica data analysis shows that delays resulting from USPS’ cost-cutting measures have endangered the validity of ballots mailed in rural areas. Counties that voted for Trump in 2024 have been most affected.

propublica.orgBallot Rejections Soared in Rural Counties After USPS Reduced Mail ServiceA ProPublica data analysis shows that delays resulting from the agency’s cost-cutting measures have endangered the validity of ballots mailed in rural areas. Counties that voted for Trump in 2024 have...

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The first genuinely honest ad for generative AI I've ever seen, from Microsoft / CoPilot A mediocre white guy sees his non-white colleague getting praised for good work, he asks AI to *literally copy it*, and then he gets all the praise instead: www.ispot.tv/ad/SoDi/micr...

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My brain cannot process this level of corruption. She was being paid $50 million to engineer a pardon from Trump *while working at the Justice Department* as a "Special Government Employee." And it worked. He got the pardon, and she got the money. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/20/u...

nytimes.comA Billionaire Wanted a Trump Pardon. His Family Gave Alina Habba a $50 Million Deal. (Gift Article)Julio Herrera Velutini, a prominent Venezuelan, was seeking clemency. He got it not long after his daughter gave Ms. Habba, a lawyer close to President Trump, an extraordinarily lucrative job.

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No one needs to listen to James Carville about anything. But I'll keep saying this until I'm blue in the face: It's not the lefties who hold Democrats hostage in Congress, IT'S THE MODERATES. Bernie Sanders never killed a Democratic bill he didn't like. You know who did? Joe Manchin. Many times.

Mrs. Betty Bowers@mrsbettybowers.bsky.social

It's the stupidity, stupid. Shut up and go away.

Marcos Huerta reposted

Flock Safety’s license plate-reading cameras have spread across the U.S., often without a vote by local elected officials. An NBC News review finds government contracts priced just below approval thresholds and dozens of deals awarded without competitive bids.

nbcnews.toHow Flock’s cameras spread through government deals that bypassed public scrutinyAn NBC News review found government contracts priced just below approval thresholds and dozens of deals awarded without competitive bids.

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RANDOM POSTER WHOSE OPINION I HAVE NO REASON TO TRUST: A result like this in NV-03 would be seismic. That’s deep Blortles country. It was Vinkum +8 in ‘24 ME DURING ELECTION SEASON: totally. i just need to look at 9000 more of these

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will try to answer these in a piece next week but for now i will say that part of the *point* of court expansion, in my mind, is to create a disequilibrium — a potential race to the bottom — that will force a truce.

Steve Vladeck@stevevladeck.bsky.social

Calls for expanding #SCOTUS are entirely (and increasingly) understandable. But as today's "One First" explains, there are at least four difficult questions that those who support expansion should have to answer—especially as compared to other possible reforms: www.stevevladeck.com/p/bonus-257-...

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Billions of dollars’ worth of contracts predicting oil would fall and the S&P 500 would rise were placed about 15 minutes before Trump announced a U-turn on Iran in a post on Truth Social. CFTC staff began to investigate...then were told to lay off. www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

bloomberg.comCFTC Staff Were Told to Retract Analysis of Suspicious Oil TradesChairman’s adviser intervened to take over examination of lucrative bets that were made around Trump reversal on Iran power plant attack.

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AP: "Archbishop Timothy Broglio, who oversees the Catholic Church’s pastoral services to Catholics in the U.S. military…stipulated that any Catholic soldier assigned to the U.S. Army firing squad should ask to be excused from that duty, which he described as contrary to the teachings of the church."

politico.comArchbishop of the US military says Catholic soldiers should not serve on firing squadThe archbishop described the planned execution of a gunman who killed 13 people on a military base as contrary to the teachings of the church.

Marcos Huerta reposted

Marcos Huerta reposted

NEW: Footage from Thursdays shooting shows an ICE agent in a construction vest brandishing a rifle. His name is Brenden Cuni. Federal judges have found multiple arrests involving Cuni unlawful. He has been accused of repeatedly Tasing a handcuffed man and tackling a pregnant woman in Minneapolis.

wired.comICE Agent at NYC Shooting Has History of Alleged Violence and Illegal ArrestsBrenden Cuni, an ICE supervisor, has been accused of excessive force and tackling a pregnant woman to the ground. Several of his arrests were later found to be unlawful in federal court.

Marcos Huerta reposted

Wall Street and corporations have schemed for decades to stack the bench with judges who rule against consumers and workers. Result? Federal courts have distorted the law to further rig the economy—and you're paying the price. Democrats must be clear-eyed about this challenge.

Demand Justice@wedemandjustice.bsky.social

Hidden in plain sight, corporations have spent decades building a federal judiciary to rig the economy against working people. Our new report with @groundwork.bsky.social reveals how corporate interests have corrupted the federal courts. prospect.org/2026/10/06/h...

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the scary thing is that this story probably isn't even true, it's probably some guy typing "Generate a ragebait story about AI use to juice my Twitter engagement" into an LLM

Marcos Huerta reposted

DOJ hired these prosecutors: -A gambling exec turned conspiracy theorist podcaster -A guy found liable for selling fraudulent insurance leads -A guy who violated attorney-client privilege in a high-profile murder trial -A guy currently facing animal neglect charges www.nytimes.com/2026/10/06/u...

nytimes.comJustice Dept. Turns to Partisans and Conspiracists to Fill Depleted RanksThe civil rights unit has recruited people whose questionable work histories and dearth of education and experience might have disqualified them in the past, former officials said.

There will not be a nuclear reactor on the moon in 2030 or 2036 or even 2050. We can’t build these things on cost and on time on earth; it is farcical to think anyone will ever build one on the moon.

The New York Times@nytimes.com

The U.S. wants a nuclear reactor on the moon by 2030. A Russian-Chinese alliance is working on one for 2036. Some leading scientists caution that governments are moving too quickly and the danger is great. trib.al/HT96ZqB

Marcos Huerta reposted

Voter registration deadlines are SUNDAY in Alaska, Rhode Island, South Carolina. And MONDAY in: Arizona, Arkansas Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Ohio, Tennessee, and *Texas*. If you live in these states, verify your registration now, literally.

Marcos Huerta reposted

If you're a woman who plays EA Sports CFB or Madden, I wanna talk to you! And if you're a woman who loves football and don't play those games, I also wanna hear from you! Working on a piece on football, the sports video games, and well, US! RESHARES APPRECIATED

Jim Crane had an analytics-driven team, fresh off winning the 2022 World Series, and I guess decided he didn’t like the data nerds getting all the glory. He ditched Click, started listening to ex-players like Bagwell, and tanked the franchise. He’s now the Houston Jerry Jones.

MLB Scores@mlbscores.bsky.social

Final: WhiteSox 7 Astros 3