Jane Green

NEW! Mega thread on the Tories... Work from the NPRC team @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social shows two critical electoral evaluations that spell much deeper trouble for the Tories. Follow @justinrobinsonpol.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social as this work builds. Why do the findings matter? …

NEW: How robust is opinion change on Brexit/Brexit @persuasionuk.bsky.social research properly stress tested it. We find a fair bit of softness. We think headline Rejoin support is more like 52 v 48% (!) rather than ~64-36% you see in polls. Not fatal for Rejoin but worth paying attention to🧵

We are hiring! TWO new researcher roles, one with me (and my wonderful colleagues) in the UK government team. Take a look, shout if you have any questions and please do send this on to anyone you think would be interested! www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/about-us/car...

Ooh the @nuffieldfoundation.org is looking for a Chair of trustees micro.green-park.co.uk/nuffieldfoun...

Absolutely appalling from a recently (and arguably currently) mainstream politician. Just look to the US to see how fast norms can erode and how dangerous that is!

Earlier this year, E3G released a big report with the Department of War Studies at Kings College which showed that our dependence on gas is a major national security risk. Cutting heat pumps to fund defence is like not paying for a flu jab so you can buy lemsip. It makes no sense.

5 year postdoc going on the new BES✌️ jobs.royalholloway.ac.uk/Vacancy.aspx...

Thwarted again today with the simple task of setting up my Mum’s care home payments. Online = computer says no. That took months. In person = totally inconsistent information. Today, need special ID…never before. You’d think Nationwide could do this.

It’s mad that we’re all saying, ‘look! A job!’ However, look! A job! There are many amazing people on the job market. Good luck…

Turnout might be the more important insight from this by-election,with the caveat that yesterday was a London seat. But has been higher where the fights are high stakes elections between two blocs - left versus Reform. One to watch …

If you want to consider the counterfactual outcome for the Greens, just look at their recent decline in opinion polls. It would always have been tough for them in H & St Pancras, but it was plausible and it would have been a huge boost.

Holborn and St Pancras: 1. Yes, good for Labour. But not a usual 'mid-term' moment but a honeymoon. Will it last? 2. Greens could have won, Polanski could be an MP. They have done themselves real harm. 3. Doesn't show Burnham's *strategy* working - uniting the left. Other seats much better tests.

My long read about the by-election and its various battlegrounds: www.onlondon.co.uk/holborn-st-p... Mentions @profjanegreen.bsky.social, @lewisbaston.bsky.social a bunch of politicians and one of my sons. Might also interest @robfordmancs.bsky.social

In a glass half empty way, surely its TERRIBLE for Kemi Badenoch that only c.50% of 2024 Conservative voters think she'd make the best PM.

We're going to get a lot of this. And we should take the numbers with an enormous dollop of salt. The negotiations would be tough, the terms less favourable than those we rejected in 2016. These numbers will move ' however 'mega' the poll! www.theguardian.com/world/2026/o...

On rejoining the EU Support: 55% Oppose: 34% ... but on the conditions of single currency and Schengen membership Support: 35% Oppose: 43% via YouGov, Jun 2026 britainelects.substack.com/p/is-rejoin-...

How should a national commission on electoral reform be designed? On Tuesday, the Prime Minister announced a national commission on electoral reform. @alanrenwick.bsky.social argues that such a body should have three key features, and emphasises the care that should be taken. Read it 👇️

I think this would ultimately be good for Farage/Reform, who would presumably be viewed as stronger on ‘no going back’ than the Tories and who would be buoyed by riling against the ‘anti-democratic establishment’. Albeit on an angry, vocal minority.

We (BES colleagues) have just finished a book showing how Brexit crystallised the realignment of the electorate, and how its persistence beyond 2024 depends on whether the parties appeal to the same groups … Seems that’s a ‘yes’ then!

Sharon Graham said removing the triple lock is morally wrong in the context that the better option is going after billionaires. Frankly, all cuts could be framed as morally wrong given that starting assumption if you prefer billionaire wealth taxes. If we DON'T assume that, what is morally right?!

Is it really 5 party politics or a load of 2 party politics in every area (and crucially a battle to be 1 of those 2)? Great piece based on new research from @martamiori.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social of Nuffield College - www.ft.com/content/28ea...

New opinion piece with @profjanegreen.bsky.social in @financialtimes.com ⬇️📊 We argue that five parties in the polls doesn't mean five-way races. What's really going on is a scramble within each bloc over who can win, fought out seat by seat.

Its so important people distinguish between: a) Trump's politics are popular; and b) Trump is in office because of institutional capture and capitulation The right in Britain really needs to understand how unpopular he is, and how particular the institutional story is.

Incredibly clear from @alfie-stirling.bsky.social here on BBC, who we are delighted to be working with @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social.

Oh wow. Just wow...

Here's the seats to votes ratios for 2024! In a paper by @martamiori.bsky.social and me:

While its true that the Lib Dems got a whopping seats to vote share in 2024 and could do again on static polling, it is genuinely intriguing that they're not doing better nationally given the Conservatives are chasing Reform voters. Where are the more affluent voters going, and why?

I feel like Westminster got hooked on the adrenaline of constant instability.

Thanks, all, for the solidarity, but also sorry so many people relate to this. Hmm. It really sucks. This whole sandwich generation thing should be called something less benign-sounding, for sure….

I am trying to bank for my mother and sort all her affairs as her Attorney and can you all just give me the pleasure of briefly screaming into the void please.... .... Thank you. Nothing works. Worse. It works negatively. Rant over.