Jack Bailey

Sick of work this Monday lunchtime? Or perhaps hungover from one too many on the first night of Labour Conference? If so, distract yourself with ✨ 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱-𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹 𝗠𝗥𝗣 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 ✨ Full interactive at: jack-bailey.co.uk/ward2024

Really worth noting that even in Red Wall constituencies which backed Leave, most *Labour* voters back rejoining the EU. Over 90% of Labour considerers back rejoin - opposition to EU membership is mainly coming from non-Labour voters in these seats. Was on Times Radio yesterday making this point.

Has this post-doc ad been circulating among political scientists? If not, please share! It is an amazing 2 year post doc. I was a fellow and my life was changed forever (I even work in Toulouse now!). It is the French version of the Nuffield post-doc ! www.tse-fr.eu/iast-researc...

I'm on research leave right now and I didn't appreciate how much time I would spend mopping up existing projects. In some ways, it's positive -- I have a paper accepted and another in a late stage R&R -- but it's also frustrating because I'd wanted to start something new!

New Liz Truss book doesn't disappoint. Thrust is blaming the Bank of England for the Sept 2022 market fallout, especially its quantitative tightening announcement the day before the mini-budget. She claims that she and Kwarteng were "caught off-guard", blindsided by the BoE's announcement.

Are you a Labour MP (or office staff for same)? Have you been contacted by GB News & asked about my estimates of how (2024) constituencies voted in the EU referendum? Please remember: that was 10 years ago. Some people die, some turn eighteen—& most importantly, some change their mind!

Simon Heffer's review of Liz Truss' book is worth a read in its own right, but my favourite bit is the bit where he shows off his inner patrician conservatism.

Most talk of constituencies being 'pro-Brexit' or 'Brexit-supporting' is incredibly lazy for basic reasons that large parts of Westminster just don't seem to be able to fathom.

🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 25 October 2026 29% 🌹 Labour 22% 🌳 Conservative 21% ➡️ Reform 10% 🐥 Lib Dem 9% 🍃 Green 6% 👽 Other 3% ✖️ SNP

I'm very sympathetic to the view that MPs should be legislators, not local ombudsmen, and much of their casework belongs with local councils. But in my experience suggesting even a mild version of this results in MPs curling up in a corner of the room, rocking and whispering “constituency link”.

"Milk, Sugar - Vampire?" - my one-man re-interpretation of Bram Stoker's epistolary classic through the medium of dramatised Notes app readings - has met with what i can only describe as a "muted" response from Manchester's leading theatres

Sorry this is so on my brand but I do kind of feel when the UK Government takes a decision about oil and gas in Scotland maybe we could hear from the Scottish Green Party instead of just the "Green Party Leader" who is in fact only responsible for England and Wales?

Not sure if it's giving "Are you taking notes during a criminal conspiracy?" or "A Lot of Questions Already Answered by the Shirt"

this is called ball knowledge behavior

Feel a @jamesomalley.co.uk campaign brewing.

Is British politics uniquely short-termist? Voters seem to think so. @philipjcowley.bsky.social @karlpike.bsky.social and I just released @mileendinstitute.bsky.social polling on political short/long-termism across Europe. The UK stands out from its neighbours. www.qmul.ac.uk/mei/research...

Oof, this is such a good title

In life, you've always got to be on the look out for a "sliding doors moment" (having to navigate a set of sliding doors)

We are hiring! TWO new researcher roles, one with me (and my wonderful colleagues) in the UK government team. Take a look, shout if you have any questions and please do send this on to anyone you think would be interested! www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/about-us/car...

🚨Job alert! 🚨 Come work with us on the British Election Study! We are looking for a postdoc to join the new BES team: 5 year contract, starting in Jan 2027. Happy to chat if you've got any questions. Applications close 12 Nov, for details see: jobs.royalholloway.ac.uk/Vacancy.aspx...

Something bugs me about Italian opinion polls. There's not enough variance: FdI has been at 27-and-a-bit in 12 of the last 13 polls. My suspicion was herding, so I went down a statistical rabbit hole, which involved inventing a new measure of herding (which may have picked up a different issue!). 🧵

🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 11 October 2026 28% 🌹 Labour 23% ➡️ Reform 20% 🌳 Conservative 10% 🐥 Lib Dem 10% 🍃 Green 6% 👽 Other 3% ✖️ SNP

5 year postdoc going on the new BES✌️ jobs.royalholloway.ac.uk/Vacancy.aspx...

❗ There's a permanent, research and teaching lectureship over at the University of Surrey in the broad area of behaviour, attitudes, parties, etc. jobs.surrey.ac.uk/Vacancy.aspx...

🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 4 October 2026 27% 🌹 Labour 23% ➡️ Reform 20% 🌳 Conservative 10% 🐥 Lib Dem 10% 🍃 Green 6% 👽 Other 3% ✖️ SNP

The politics are obviously difficult, but you can’t have a high wage economy if you have a soft cap on wages

Love getting out of the country and u̶p̶d̶a̶t̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶m̶y̶ ̶P̶o̶k̶é̶d̶e̶x̶ finding new birds on the Merlin app

Very excited to share this news! Cant wait to get started

Finally able to share a bit of exciting professional news - I will be one small part of a big new team headed up by @olliheath.bsky.social taking over the @britishelectionstudy.com from next year. Lots of exciting stuff to come soon! www.royalholloway.ac.uk/about-us/new...

I’m so excited to be working with a wonderful team led by @olliheath.bsky.social to run the next British Election Study. I’ve been using the data for 25 years now I can help produce it! www.royalholloway.ac.uk/about-us/new...

We got big plans 😎👌

Excited to help run the BES for the next 5-10 years, this time alongside @olliheath.bsky.social, @chanret.bsky.social, Kaat Smets, @profrosiecamp.bsky.social, @bobbyduffy.bsky.social, @maxfalken.bsky.social, and @profsob.bsky.social, @jack-bailey.co.uk, Alex Cernat, and @robfordmancs.bsky.social!

If you want a majoritarian electoral system, the only reason to choose SV over AV is because you think British voters are stupider than Australians.

Fundamentally, if you want more proportional elections, you need multimember districts. Either you elect multiple members in every district or you have one or more supplementary districts that top up the numbers to make them more proportional. Those are your options, constituency link be damned.

I worry that Labour are making a trap for themselves on electoral reform 1) SV *is not* a form of PR. So would do nothing to account for our fragmenting politics 2) Opting for SV would just rehash the referendum on AV, which reformers overwhelmingly lost www.politico.eu/article/andy...

Do parties shape climate funds? Soham Banerjee, Dishil Shrimankar & Matthew Paterson find projects favour the PM’s allies in competitive constituencies in opposition-governed states. Read more: buff.ly/p5i1IMz @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social #polsky #polsci #ClimatePolicy

Immediate thoughts on Andy Burnham's announcement today of a national commission on electoral reform. Doing this process well will be really important. theconversation.com/if-he-wants-...

This Indonesian prison looks nicer than the one bed flat I lived in during the pandemic.

Our School of Politics and International Relations at @ucddublin.bsky.social is hiring two permanent (!) Assistant Professors in any field of political science, international relations, political theory, or development. Deadline: 9 November Start date: 30 August 2027 my.corehr.com/pls/coreport...