Pavel Podvig

Navigational Warnings have appeared for what could be a #Russian #Bulava #SLBM test launch, Oct 25-31, from a submarine in the Sea of Ochotsk to Chizha, Kanin Peninsula. (HT @russianforces.org, @m514ever.bsky.social) @planet4589.bsky.social, @nukestrat.bsky.social, @wslafoy.bsky.social

It's 40 years since the summit in Reykjavik, just one year less than the time between the summit and the end of World War II - "Watching Reykjavik from Moscow" russianforces.org/blog/2026/10... Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/watching-r...

A 1969 letter to Kissinger asserted that BMEWS issued 40-50 "false reports"/"false alarms" per year, which is basically once a week! nsarchive.gwu.edu/sites/defaul...

"Is the Dead Hand back? Well, it never went away" - My take on the story about Kosvinsky Kamen/The Dead Hand/Perimeter. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/09... Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/is-the-dea...

Times report says Russia reactivated its “Dead Hand” nuclear retaliation system — expert @russianforces.org says the system was never deactivated The recent modernization of an underground command center inside Mount Kosvinsky Kamen in the Urals sparked speculation over the Soviet Perimeter system.

Yes, Russia has (finally) completed the construction of that command center in the Urals. No surprises here. www.thetimes.com/article/03e5... The story has some good photos. What's puzzling is that it seems to suggest that survivable command and control is somehow problematic. It is not.

Now imagine that during a crisis an AI draws from a huge amount of data to conclude that Russia or China are preparing a nuclear first strike and an under-pressure analyst sends that immediately up the chain.

Russia launched a Glonass satellite. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/09... Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/launch-of-...

International Panel on Fissile Materials is now on Substack: fissilematerials.substack.com. Subscribe to receive new posts by email. It is free.

Yes and no. It's clear that this was the plan all along. The only surprise is that they admitted it.

Russia apparently planned to launch an ICBM from Dombarovskiy during the 3-5 September window. By all indications it was the Avangard glider. The test appears to have been cancelled. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/09..., Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/attempted-...

There are signs of an upcoming Sarmat launch (from Dombarovskiy) on September 3. We will see...

Launch of mobile Yars missile from Plesetsk - russianforces.org/blog/2026/08.... Also on Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/launch-of-...

Launch of a Glonass-K navigation satellite from Plesetsk russianforces.org/blog/2026/08... (also on Substack russianforces.substack.com/p/launch-of-...). Said to be Glonass-K 19L. NORAD lists it as Cosmos-2619, but no official confirmation from Russia.

The West is trying to address this issue by expanding its own enrichment capacity fissilematerials.org/blog/2026/06...

The uranium enrichment business is complicated. "Russia supplies approximately 44% of global enriched uranium and 20-30% of enriched uranium used in the U.S. and Europe." A good write-up: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...

A good take on floating nuclear power plants bellona.org/news/nuclear...

An update of the Russian early-warning radar network file: russianforces.org/blog/2026/08... (also on Substack russianforces.substack.com/p/russian-ea...). Comments and corrections are welcome.

81 years ago today, on August 9, 1945, an atomic bomb was dropped upon the city of Nagasaki, Japan, by the United States. This was 3 days after the first atomic attack on Hiroshima.

I used to do some work on the ethical use of satellite and drone imagery for aid and disaster response, and it is genuinely hard to express in words what a dangerous, stupid thing Google is doing by making it easy to use GenAI to create faked satellite imagery:

In 1961, CIA believed the Soviets had 50-100 ICBMs. USAF Intelligence believed it was at least 120, with 300 coming within the year. SAC's Thomas Power though they had 1,000. In reality they had more like 4.

Interesting parallels: Dulles in 1955: "[it is vital that] we urgently educate our own and world opinion as to the necessity for the tactical use of atomic weapons." Karaganov et al in 2024: "Convinc[e] our World Majority partners of the legitimacy of a possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia"

Finnish ambassador in russia lays flowers at a destroyed memorial to dead Finnish POW’s in Hatsina, russia.

Happy to contribute to the discussion in Norway about the "advanced deterrence" agreement with France 🙂 (translated from Norwegian). This follows the op-ed published last month, also in Norwegian: russianforces.substack.com/p/the-mirage...

Normally, Russia holds exercises of its nuclear forces in October. This one was in May, which is unusual. It included launches of Yars, Sineva, ALCMs, and Kinzhal, Tsirkon, Iskander. Website russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... or Substack open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

The nuclear exercise just carried out by Russia involved Belarus and non-strategic nuclear weapons. Russia said that actual nuclear weapons have been delivered to the combat units. Which is rather unusual. Website russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... or Substack open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

Yet another video from the non-strategic exercise t.me/mod_russia/6.... It's quite puzzling, though. Like, the trucks are tarp-covered. Really? In general, Russian MoD and 12GUMO are very careful about their role in all this. I wouldn't be surprised if they are not involved

A strategic exercise in May is somewhat unusual - these are normally held in October - but not unprecedented. There was one in May 2014 russianforces.org/blog/2014/05...

Are two successful tests enough to put a missile on combat duty? Probably not. On the other hand, these missiles are supposed to sit motionless in silos for tens of years. This they can certainly do. A lot of nuclear deterrence is theater (and not just in Russia).

Second successful test launch of Sarmat ICBM. The first one was in April 2022. Deployment to begin this year. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

Putin today promised to deploy Russia's Sarmat ICBM "by the end of this year" — the same pledge he has made at least 10 times since 2021. The only fully successful Sarmat test before today was in April 2022. The missile exploded during a test in Sept 2024. t.me/astrapress/1...

“It is the most powerful missile system in the world,” Vladimir Putin said after receiving confirmation that the missile had struck its designated target at the Kura test range on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia’s Far East.

Just a thought - maybe this tells us something. Like, people don't actually believe nuclear weapons are all that dangerous. And they may have a point - nuclear weapon are pretty much useless and unusable.

Does nuclear stockpile stewardship’s science diminish global security? Stewart Prager and Denisse Córdova Carrizales argue that it does (and provide a good overview of the SSP) physicstoday.aip.org/opinion/does...

US Space Force updated catalog entries for many Russian military satellites: Cosmos-2600-2608 russianforces.org/blog/2026/02..., 2609-2614 russianforces.org/blog/2026/04..., and 2615-2618 russianforces.org/blog/2026/04.... It is not clear if these are real Cosmos numbers. Russia hasn't said anything

It's not that there are "no easy answers." There are no answers open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

Great contribution to the field from my colleague Sarah Ruth Opatowski. The compendium maps and analyzes a decade of nuclear risk reduction proposals across the NPT review process, First Committee, and other multilateral forums. Learn more at our side event at the RevCon on May 6, CR8

"The Mirage of European Nuclear Weapons. There is no scenario in which nuclear weapons can contribute to the security of Europeans." My op-ed in @Forsv_forum "Kjernevåpen for Europa – en illusjon." English version - Web: russianforces.org/podvig/2026/... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

Angara launch deploys four military satellites on 23 April 2026. Most likely MKA small optical reconnaissance satellites. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/04... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

How many nuclear weapons did the US Air Force want in the late 1950s? An official history says: "a fantastic number." But unfortunately it doesn't quote the actual number. It does quote the Army, however, as wanting over 100,000 "battlefield" nukes, and imagining they could use over 400 per day.

Launch of multiple military satellites from Plesetsk (on 17 April 2026). Two groups of satellites deployed, mission is unknown, Cosmos designations have not been released. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/04... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

60 yrs ago today, “The War Game”—the shocking docudrama written/directed/produced by Peter Watkins—had the first of four invitation-only screenings at the British Film Institute’s National Film Theatre in London for members of the establishment after the BBC banned its broadcast on October 6, 1965.