Ryan Bohl

Ryan Bohl

@ryanbohl.bsky.social

Girl dad. Dog friend. Chicken wrangler. Some Middle Eastern geopolitics. Upper Darby School Board member. Views (especially politics) my own; follow me on X/Linkedin for professional MENA analysis.

1.1K followers872 following1.2K posts

Ryan Bohl reposted

PARCL LABS: “.. As of this morning, in these 6 states, over 6% of everything for sale today is originating from home owners underwater on their mortgage. Nationally, this rate is 4.9%. Florida leads at 8.9% Texas: 7.8% Colorado: 7.5% Lousiana: 7.1% Arizona: 6.1% Utah: 6%”

Israel plays a significant role, but so too do internal rivalries within the Palestinian Authority and outside it. It's not like Palestinian officials don't have the agency to self-sabotage.

As a local school board member what I want *desperately* is a Dem Congress that gives us massive school construction support -- we've got 100-year-old elementary schools that will take us over a decade to truly repair without that help.

Trump is acting like an inverse Biden, only way less disciplined. Let's start at the top with the economy: Biden kept saying inflation was temporary (it was), that the fundamentals were strong (they were), and that they just needed time (they did). But Biden did almost nothing on the wealth gap.

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Then consider age: Biden's mental decline was obvious, but could be ignored because at least the advisors were competent (if not unimaginative). Trump is now falling asleep left and right, and his advisors are, Rubio excepted, *worse* than him.

This gives momentum to retaking Congress and the White House. But I fear Democrats will immediately shift into complacency when they do -- or focus on 'resistance' symbolism rather than substantial change. You want a majority that lasts? Fix the middle class.

Trump is acting like an inverse Biden, only way less disciplined. Let's start at the top with the economy: Biden kept saying inflation was temporary (it was), that the fundamentals were strong (they were), and that they just needed time (they did). But Biden did almost nothing on the wealth gap.

So of course people turned on him, because the "fundamentals" mean jack to regular people. Now Trump is doing the same, but worse, except this time it *really is his fault*. And only hardcore partisans will argue this is worth it; MAGA has always been a small faction anyway.

BY THE WAY, we're opening up a new middle school in Clifton Heights *on time*, the first major infrastructure upgrade for that borough in decades. Huge win for Delco and the Philly burbs.

Meanwhile if we *are* going to do Dark Woke, or Woke 2, we need to be a lot smarter than college activist-style rhetoric. There is so much to redress with the Trump 2 era, and we will not have much time to do it; two years, *maybe*, and probably just one.

The last night takeaways from WI aren't huge: turns out Hong wasn't seen as electable, and in the Midwest that matters. Woke 1 was often crazy, and the Midwest base is wary of rewarding that era. Me personally? I like economic but not cultural populism. Let's hope Casey delivers.

Ryan Bohl reposted

ACCORDING TO IRAN'S SUPREME NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL SECRETARY MOHSEN REZAI, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL STAY CLOSED UNLESS THE U.S. ALTERS ITS CONDUCT AND MEETS TEHRAN'S CONDITIONS - SOURCES

This is obviously a huge structural deal -- GOP can cheat and gerrymander and Democrats can't. Democrats have to get better at changing their own state rules to counter what the GOP has been doing for decades.

CNN@cnn.com

Virginia Supreme Court blocks state's referendum to redraw US House map to give Democrats a better chance at four more House seats https://cnn.it/4nnB9pk

Ryan Bohl reposted

Basically all of the bad economic news this term is because the president deliberately decided to do something moronic. He is much more personally responsible for this than most presidents are for the downturns in their administration.

Alrighty, my partisan post about Iran, which belongs over here rather than X. This will be a thread, since it has multiple parts. First, this is a dumb war; not just from a Democratic position, but from an American one.

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For Democrats, there are two true things the party must assert: first, this was a dumb war, and second, Israel's interests are not our own. It's not just a values gap, its an core interest gap. We have real challenges in Europe and Asia, and Israel will not be there for us there.

This is not to defend the Islamic Republic's human rights record or strategic orientation. But as Americans abandon the role of world police, we must get better at hard-nosed geopolitics. If Israel wants to war with Iran, then it must pay for it, and leave us and the Gulf Arabs out of it.

Alrighty, my partisan post about Iran, which belongs over here rather than X. This will be a thread, since it has multiple parts. First, this is a dumb war; not just from a Democratic position, but from an American one.

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If Netanyahu was going to secure his ultimate legacy -- expanding in Palestine and defeating its militants -- he had to also hit Iran. The nuclear program was secondary; it has always played on America's WMD paranoia. The missiles and proxies, those were real threats.

So it is very safe to say this was Israel's urgency, and Trump has always, always, always aligned with Israel's urgency. Everyone who believed Trump would be more critical of Israel has demonstrated they are deeply gullible, and were not paying attention at all in his first term.

Alrighty, my partisan post about Iran, which belongs over here rather than X. This will be a thread, since it has multiple parts. First, this is a dumb war; not just from a Democratic position, but from an American one.

We could tolerate Iran's nuclear program -- which was not in danger of being weaponized anytime soon -- as well as its missiles and proxies, which were mostly aimed at Israel. There was no urgency, and no opportunity, and worse, no real means to force Iran to change its foreign policies.

Israel couldn't, especially not Netanyahu, because Iran is the last powerful champion of the militant Palestinian cause. After Oct. 7, he had the right ingredients for war: a hawkish public, a symphathetic, largely Boomer-run USG, and then, as Assad fell and Hezbollah lay low, a strategic window.

Ryan Bohl reposted

Authorities in Dubai confirm that sounds heard in various areas across the city were the result of air defence interception operations. The relevant Dubai teams continue to closely monitor the situation and are taking all necessary measures to ensure public safety.-Dubai Media Office

This is not our war. Left or right, liberal or conservative, there is no spin to justify this except that Trump is embarrassed by his failed Iran policy over the past decade.

Ryan Bohl reposted

Appears wave is over, hit the wall for today. Thanks for everyone’s time today. I’m going to rack out for a bit, but I’ll be back in the morning to keep passing updates. We’re still likely looking at days to weeks of this, and hopefully the end state is a free Iran.

ICE raids around our schools are throwing attendance levels into chaos and making it impossible to guarantee education for all our kids. ICE's clear unprofessionalism means they must be Congressionally barred from operating near such places. www.cbsnews.com/news/new-jer...

cbsnews.com"We were all scared," says child who ran as ICE operation unfolded near New Jersey school bus stopDylan, who is a U.S. citizen, told CBS News the day seemed normal — until he heard his classmates suddenly start shouting "ICE."

Ryan Bohl reposted

We now have data from Trump's first full year in office. Let's review the performance of Trump and the two parties since 1989 and a new age of globalization began. However you cut the data Trump continues to have worst jobs record of last six Presidents. 1/

In my position as a board member, this is the scope of what I see as our writ to protect our community; as an elected Democrat, I see no legitimacy in ICE, and want to see Congress go further, turning deportation powers back to Border Patrol and rolling ICE up.

We're working on a resolution at Upper Darby School Board calling for Congress to ban ICE at schools and other sensitive places. If you've got good contacts to share this message, please let me know! We do not have much time to signal how important this is to our communities.

Upper Darby school board is pushing for a resolution to demand Congress legislate ICE can't come to our schools. Our students carried out a large, peaceful protest yesterday -- with admin backing. ICE raids are hurting attendence, spreading fear, and distracting schools. 6abc.com/post/upper-d...

6abc.comUpper Darby High School students walk out to protest ICE enforcementHundreds of students at Upper Darby High School walked out Thursday afternoon to protest ICE and support students from immigrant families.

This is incredibly short-sighted, btw -- the MENA team was great and provided insights you couldn't find anywhere else.

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From the American Conservative -- not one of these bullshit claims is true. Americans will not work hard, low wage jobs; immigrants do not overwhelm services but contribute to them; and national cohesion is undermined by right-wing racists trying to build a caste system.

Ryan Bohl reposted

A public school superintendent in Minnesota said federal immigration agents have detained four young students over the last two weeks, including a 5-year-old who was allegedly "used as bait."

The Board of Peace is Trump's knock-off UN as he cuts off funding for peacekeepers. In Gaza, it'll probably be used to wipe away decades of UN attempts at mediating the end of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.