Ash Splawinski

Ash Splawinski

@splawinski.bsky.social

PhD candidate in political science @ UofT Researching federalism, policy design, administrative burdens, and political mobilization Previously a visiting scholar at UT Austin & CU Denver Sometimes I podcast. Listen to Nobody’s In Charge on Spotify or Apple

377 followers176 following303 posts

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Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

Republicans say Canada is interfering in the midterms. The evidence offered up is a Government of Ontario ad quoting Ronald Reagan and the Minister of Industry, Mélanie Joly, explaining how counter-tariffs work. Meanwhile, Alberta separatists have been meeting with State Department officials.

Don Moynihan@donmoyn.bsky.social

New from @splawinski.bsky.social at Can We Still Govern?: Albertans vote today to decide their future with Canada. American right-wingers have been joining Russia in promoting Albertan separatists, while accusing the Canadians of US election interference. 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/republican...

donmoynihan.substack.comRepublicans Blame Canada for Midterm Woes, While Promoting Alberta SeparatistsSomeone’s interfering at the ballot box this fall. But it’s not who Washington says it is.
Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

Constant threats of annexation, calling PM Mark Carney “governor,” the State Department meeting with Alberta separatists, “Lake America,” tariffs, proposing a trade deal that aimed to weaken French language rules, and now, repeatedly, accusing Canada of midterm election interference will do that.

Catherine Rampell@crampell.bsky.social

Trends in Canadian tourism to the US vs. rest of world www.apricitas.io/p/how-canada...

Ash Splawinski reposted

Jacob T. Levy
@jacobtlevy.bsky.social

Have people on here been following the British Columbia political news? Because it has been *wild*. Five weeks ago the BC Conservative Party wasn't just in disarray; it looked like it was utterly disintegrating under a truly disastrous leader.

Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

Ah. Not really what the public admin scholars mean when they say automation can be used in a targeted way to reduce administrative burden, is it? 😟

Don Moynihan@donmoyn.bsky.social

Trump's $5K checks have become a punchline because few think he will deliver. But he has given 1 million people a $500 check (mostly in swing states), and abt 20 million a $90 check (w propaganda letters). No-one applied. The process was automated, using administrative data to target payments.

Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

Ok, I was trying to decide between going as "Reviewer Two" or a “corrupt politician" for Halloween (same outfit and I'm lazy), but I think I'll go as what the current U.S. administration is trying to portray as conniving and menacing: a Canadian.

Ash Splawinski reposted

Scott Robertson
@sarobertson.bsky.social

Mélanie Joly brushes off allegations of interference: "Facts must be straightened in the sense that indeed I met with Democrats in the US, but I met with Republicans, which the American Embassy failed to present."

Ash Splawinski reposted

Brian Platt
@brianplatt.bsky.social

Bloomberg scoop: Canada has banned its diplomatic staff in the US from even being in the same room as a midterm election candidate, taking an extra cautious approach to avoid accusations from the Trump administration of "interference" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.comCanada Bans Its Diplomats From Being Seen With US CandidatesCanadian diplomats working in the US have been directed to stay away from candidates running in the midterm elections, and to keep a low profile to avoid allegations by the Trump administration of pol...
Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

Quite frankly, an insane thing for the U.S. gov to peddle. The page ends with “Americans decide America’s elections.” Right. So, where was that energy when Republican strategists from Michigan flew to Calgary to pitch voter software to Alberta separatists ahead of their referendum?

Don Moynihan@donmoyn.bsky.social

Just deeply embarrassing. The US Ambassador continues to insist that Canada is interfering in elections by saying things like "tariffs are bad" even after the State Dept met with Alberta separatists. @splawinski.bsky.social ca.usembassy.gov/fact-sheet-m...

Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

Something like 800,000 Canadians live in the U.S. and 11 have been charged or sentenced for illegally voting in U.S. elections. Election interference is wrong. That said, acting like this is a grand conspiracy, or that the Canadian government is seriously meddling in U.S. elections, is bonkers.

Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

The vast majority of Albertans do not want to begin the process of separating from Canada, despite the efforts of well-resourced provocateurs, including Elon Musk, a group of Republican political strategists from Michigan, and a range of American and Russian content farms.

The Associated Press@apnews.com

Oil-rich Alberta rejects a move toward independence in a victory for Canadian Prime Minister Carney.

bit.lyAlberta voters reject a move toward independence in referendum backing Canadian unityThe results delivered a victory for Prime Minister Mark Carney and supporters of Canadian unity amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war and annexation threats.

Ash Splawinski reposted

Social Media Lab
@socialmedialab.ca

Replying to @socialmedialab.ca

Results for Question 10, the separation question, are expected to be reported between 1 a.m. and 4 a.m. MT Tuesday, according to Elections Alberta. http an s://www.ctvnews.ca/edmonton/article/almost-all-polling-stations-closed-in-albertas-separation-referendum-but-voting-continues-live-updates-here/

ctvnews.caAlmost all polling stations closed in Alberta’s separation referendum, but voting continues. Live updates here.Nearly all polling stations are closed in Alberta’s referendum as voters answer 10 questions, including whether the province should stay in Canada or hold another vote to separate. Follow for live upd...
Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

There are several ways Americans (and Russians) are influencing the Alberta vote. The Atlas Network is one of them. "Backed by multimillion-dollar funding from foundations linked to American billionaires," this angle appears to be political influence through think tanks. thetyee.ca/News/2026/09...

thetyee.caHow the US Atlas Network Built Alberta Separatism | The TyeeA global cabal of libertarian and right-wing organizations has fuelled the province’s independence movement.
Ash Splawinski@splawinski.bsky.social

But, here's the thing: Albertans vote today on whether to start the legal process toward a binding vote on leaving Canada. Researchers found American (and Russian!) content farms pushing pro-separatist influence online. Political interference/influence is happening... just not where Washington says.

Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

Republicans say Canada is interfering in the midterms. The evidence offered up is a Government of Ontario ad quoting Ronald Reagan and the Minister of Industry, Mélanie Joly, explaining how counter-tariffs work. Meanwhile, Alberta separatists have been meeting with State Department officials.

Don Moynihan@donmoyn.bsky.social

New from @splawinski.bsky.social at Can We Still Govern?: Albertans vote today to decide their future with Canada. American right-wingers have been joining Russia in promoting Albertan separatists, while accusing the Canadians of US election interference. 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/republican...

donmoynihan.substack.comRepublicans Blame Canada for Midterm Woes, While Promoting Alberta SeparatistsSomeone’s interfering at the ballot box this fall. But it’s not who Washington says it is.
Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

The president’s party almost always loses. I argue that blaming Canada lets the administration prepare an explanation before the midterm votes are even in. Since CUSMA trade talks are stalled, this may provide leverage/more reasons to pressure Canada economically - even more than they have.

Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

But, here's the thing: Albertans vote today on whether to start the legal process toward a binding vote on leaving Canada. Researchers found American (and Russian!) content farms pushing pro-separatist influence online. Political interference/influence is happening... just not where Washington says.

Ash Splawinski reposted

George Pearkes
@peark.es

Stuff like this is why the Canadian political establishment is (correctly, IMO) assuming that Democrats can NOT be trusted to return the bilateral relationship to the status quo ante going forward.

Sen. Adam Schiff@schiff.senate.gov

My first stop was Alberta, the only province not boycotting Californian wines. I spoke to provincial leaders about the importance of the Canadian market to California farmers and the importance of continuing close collaboration on dairy, beef and energy trade.

Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

I'm in a very 'enjoying the mere suggestion of the Dodgers getting eliminated from the playoffs because I'm a Jays fan and I'm not over the 2025 World Series' time in my life.

Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

Some poor hiring committee is going to be scrolling my Bluesky, trying to figure out if I’m a Normal Person, and they’re going to see I was writing about five women with eye syphilis in Michigan. Well, it happened, and IDK, maybe there’s something in there we can learn about policy, yanno.

Ash Splawinski reposted

Scoiattolo
@scarnecchia.net

Now that Politico has confirmed that there was a diplomatic cable to US embassies instructing them to pressure sponsor countries, I’m very curious if they were coordinating with Shellenberger to put pressure on researchers.

politico.comEU, Canada and Lithuania pull out of disinformation conference after US pressureThe Trump administration was bothered by panels that referred to the U.S. as a disinformation threat.
Scoiattolo@scarnecchia.net

Skywatch got another email from Shellenberger. He’s a crank yes, but Canada, Lithuania, and the EEAS pulling their sponsorship definitely speaks to some some sort of political pressure campaign targeting #Disinfo2026 and now I’m worried about if I’ll be able to get home without harassment.

Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

Meanwhile: "...when Alberta separatist leaders went to Washington [...] they offered up key assets from the province’s resource portfolio, including access to fresh water and royalties on crude oil, in exchange for help transitioning to independence." www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/artic...

theglobeandmail.comThe elephant in the roomAlberta separatists have gone to D.C. offering fresh water and oil in exchange for American support – and Republican operatives have provided tactical assistance inside the province
Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

The feds are fighting. The U.S. + Russia are engaging in influence campaigns in Alberta. This is acknowledged by pretty much everyone. Canada is simultaneously being accused of midterm election interference in the U.S. and is also is being asked to say [thick Canadian accent] soooorry? Huuuuuh?

Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

"Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro told Canadian lobbyists to 'get the hell out' of the U.S. and warned Canada would 'pay even more dearly' if it interfered in the upcoming midterm elections. Navarro did not explain what he meant by Canadian interference." ...Diplomacy 👍🏽 www.cbc.ca/news/world/t...

cbc.caTrump says 'very bad' Canada is being 'taught a little lesson' as trade action escalates | CBC NewsU.S. President Donald Trump's war of words with Canada continued Wednesday as he veered off a prepared script at an event marking Hispanic Heritage Month in the States to chastise Canadian leaders for...

Ash Splawinski reposted

Asawin Suebsaeng
@swin24.bsky.social

Is it?

Semafor@semafor.com

Visitors to the US are on track to drop by almost two million year-on-year. “We’re the only major country in the world losing visitation,” the head of the US Travel Association said. “It’s mind-boggling.” www.semafor.com/article/09/2...

Ash Splawinski reposted

Don Moynihan
@donmoyn.bsky.social

Replying to @donmoyn.bsky.social

There has been no accountability around DOGE as a project or as a theory of governance. For the first, we need a credible Congressional commission. For the second, explaining why DOGE failed feels like a useful exercise for informing what we should do next. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/a-year-on-...

Ash Splawinski reposted

Don Moynihan
@donmoyn.bsky.social

New from me: I unpack what happened at the Jack Smith hearing, and offer a theory of what the hell Senator Eric Schmitt thought he was doing. And yes, an inability to tell the difference between the Hawks and Hawkeyes really did seem to be a big part of it. 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/what-happe...

donmoynihan.substack.comWhat happened at the Jack Smith hearing?A guide for the perplexed. And yes, it does say something about the state of the Republican Party

Ash Splawinski reposted

Ann Monster Lipton
@annmlipton.bsky.social

this is at least as responsible for the hostility to AI as anything else: forcing it into every corner of life even when it's just obviously not ready. It could be ready one day! But it isn't now and the people forcing it on us are not the ones who suffer arstechnica.com/health/2026/...

arstechnica.comTrump admin using AI to deny medical care for seniors in disastrous experimentVendors rolling out AI have an "incentive to deny as many claims as possible."
Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

I know there were several factors at play, but I feel like we can draw a direct line from this ideology to the alleged lack of U.S. support for General Jennie Carignan — a very qualified candidate — who just lost her bid to chair the NATO Military Committee. www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

cbc.caCanada's top general loses election to become head of key NATO Military Committee | CBC NewsDespite a push from the federal government, Canada's chief of the defence staff has lost a vote to be the next chair of the NATO Military Committee, the alliance's top military authority and a key adv...
Rachel Maddow@maddow.bsky.social

"A group of pastors and influencers has wedded old-school segregationist theology with the hypermasculinity of the manosphere... to preach and sell white supremacy, antisemitism and patriarchy to angry young men..." religionnews.com/2026/09/24/t...

religionnews.comThe rise of the Jim Crow theobros(RNS) — A group of Reformed pastors and influencers has wedded old-school segregationist theology with the hypermasculinity of the manosphere and the savvy of the attention economy to preach and sell ...

Ash Splawinski reposted

Reuters
@reuters.com

Trump sees no urgency for Canada deal as trade dispute deepens, USTR says reut.rs/4hoPBuB

reut.rsTrump sees no urgency for Canada deal as trade dispute deepens, USTR saysPresident Donald Trump's administration is comfortable maintaining its trade standoff with Canada even as new US import ​bans on Canadian products take effect next week and Washington threatens 50% tariffs ‌on Canadian autos, parts and steel from January, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Friday.

Ash Splawinski reposted

Larry J. Simon
@larryjsimon.bsky.social

"It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring … and it blossoms in the summer … and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall all alone … just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops." mason.gmu.edu/~rmatz/giama...

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

It’s always sad to say goodbye to baseball season. There’s nothing finer than 162, starting when the world is blooming and winding down as that chill sets in. Winter is coming and I’ll make the best of it, but I’m already looking forward to spring ⚾️

Ash Splawinski reposted

Chris Geidner
@chrisgeidner.bsky.social

BREAKING: SCOTUS keeps the Missouri 2022 congressional map in effect for this election in an order that criticizes the Eighth Circuit's actions in the case. The five page, per curiam — unsigned order — came with no noted dissents. More to come at Law Dork: www.lawdork.com

lawdork.comLaw Dork | Chris Geidner | SubstackThe Supreme Court, law, politics, and more. Click to read Law Dork, by Chris Geidner, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

This also has implications for the intersection of federalism and feedback: two donor-conceived people in the same country can face entirely different administrative conditions, and entirely different pathways to political claimsmaking and mobilization, depending solely on where they were conceived.

Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

The paper proposes a research agenda organized around the politics of "administratively produced populations" and the deliberate distribution of administrative burden through policy design.

Ash Splawinski
@splawinski.bsky.social

Donor-conceived adults complicate our understanding of feedback by illustrating an unusual feedback loop. This population, now mobilizing for reform of donor conception, is itself a product of the arrangements it is contesting.