Fantasy Football Trout

Fantasy Football Trout

@trout-post.com

Building @solioanalytics

2.2K followers286 following130 posts

Fantasy Football Trout reposted

With Ange Postecoglou set to take over at Forest, we went back to look at some DEFCON data from his Spurs spell His high line + pressing style generally created more DEFCON chances for opponents than for his own players 👇

For anyone who missed it, a few friends and I have spent all of our free time over the last 18 months building an FPL tool (@solioanalytics.com). Check it out!

Solio Analytics@solioanalytics.com

Introducing Solio: A New FPL Tool 📺 @pras-fpl.bsky.social and @jonnyc.bsky.social are joined by @trout-post.com to showcase the tool’s different features and how it can give you a competitive edge in the 2025/26 FPL season. youtu.be/p9cabL8lfdY

Fantasy Football Trout reposted

I had the privilege of participating in the testing phase of the new Solio FPL tool! I particularly liked how you can run deep optimisations with your own assumptions baked in. It’s the kind of tool you’ve always wanted. Try it yourself! @solioanalytics.com #FPL #FPLCommunity #Solio

Fantasy Football Trout reposted

First time our FPL projections are out in the wild. Using RobT's expertise in spread markets and our own analytical approaches, we built it together. Seeing it actually show up in people's timelines as something useful and worth sharing makes me really happy.

Rob T@robtfpl.com

💹 PL GW36-38: teams to target A look at the teams with the highest total projected goals and clean sheet odds over the last three Premier League fixtures of the season, via spread betting markets and @solioanalytics.com 👇

Fantasy Football Trout reposted

Can’t wait to join such talented group of people trying to make FPL decision making fun. Thanks for including me in the team. Solio, remember the name.

Solio Analytics@solioanalytics.com

We’re excited to share that @pras-fpl.bsky.social is joining Solio as a partner and Lead Host for our YouTube channel: youtube.com/@solioanalytics Also: we’ve decided to switch from a soft launch to a closed beta this spring. We’ll need testers—details below. #FPL

Fantasy Football Trout reposted

We’re excited to share that @pras-fpl.bsky.social is joining Solio as a partner and Lead Host for our YouTube channel: youtube.com/@solioanalytics Also: we’ve decided to switch from a soft launch to a closed beta this spring. We’ll need testers—details below. #FPL

youtube.comSolio AnalyticsAn independent and community-driven analytics company that helps you turn data into decisions. Super-secret FPL tool launches March 2025 on solioanalytics.com

Fantasy Football Trout reposted

Exciting news! @cmusson.uk—aka Moose—is now leading our FPL Python solver as Open-Source & Community Engagement Lead! 🫎 Solio was built on open-source, and with Moose at the helm, we’ll keep growing, contributing, and supporting the community. More to come! #FPL #FPLCommunity

Sweaty gimp/Dell Inspiron lifestyle is in fact very fun 🥵🧑‍🍳

James Owens@james-owens.bsky.social

It's so convoluted that I don't see how even analytics heads will find it fun to model. You'll just feel like a sweaty gimp spending so much time modelling a chip so complex that average players have no chance of working out themselves without the latest Dell Inspiron. There's no fun in that.

Fantasy Football Trout reposted

I calculated the EVs for the Assistant Manager in each fixture. For now, not factored in probability of being 5 places below so: Pts = EV if they not 5+ places below Pts++ = EV if they are 5+ places below From my team strength model

docs.google.comAssistant Manager EV

FPL Towers this season: - Started with the most enjoyable asset pricing in recent years by far - Made changes to FT & chip rules which have made FPL planning much more enjoyable and interesting - Introduced a new chip which is more ambitious & strategically fun than any suggestions I've seen

- Drastically reduced server downtime And all this while maintaining a completely new game mode (nobody plays it, but still 😄) Assuming the AM chip is rolled out smoothly then they deserve MASSIVE credit. Making these improvements so quickly is impressive and makes me optimistic for FPL!

In GW9, all Elite 64 members owned Haaland. I WCd into a team without him. I did this not because of any analytics/optimisation insight, but bc City's years of corrupt organisational ethics were bound to result in Haaland kicking the ball with the wrong part of his foot, sometimes even his ankle

Jonny Currie 🚀@jonnyc.bsky.social

Salah and Haaland ownership% in Analytics Elite 64 and Elite64 minileagues Elite64 managers were less keen to start with Salah, but were quicker to pick him up for GW4/5, and much keener to double up with Haaland for that period. AE64 managers were quicker to drop Haaland for Salah in GW10.

GW12 Interesting decision made this week on Lewis -> Digne or roll. The immediate points are worth slightly less than the FT, but this is clearly the best opportunity I'll get to remove Lewis before GW17 and he could continue to plummet in value over the next several GWs. (VC is accidental)

For anyone interested, here are some results from a study I did a few years ago Each dot represents projected pts yielded from 50 play-throughs of randomised versions of @fplreview.com's 20/21 data, with a decay rate (α) and FT value (β) selected using Bayesian optimisation (8 GW horizon)

fplreview@fplreview.com

@trout-post.com did some heavy analysis on what setting parameters yielded the best outcome a while back that supported ~0.84-0.85. Myself and Mikkel Tokvam had initial rules of thumb (based on concepts like the above) that his analysis ended up close to- which was a pretty cool validation

View full thread

While we're on the subject, I'm not sure how to feel about this framing of decay as risk preference 🤔 Decay is the balance of chasing short/long-term gains. Chasing short-term gains is inherently "riskier", but this is only a tiny part of how FPL managers engage with risk bsky.app/profile/ffh-...

Fantasy Football Hub@ffh-hq.bsky.social

📢 BIG NEWS... Our AI has recieved a major upgrade! 🤖 Tailor it to your FPL management style 💪 Want to play it safe? 🤔 Want to take risks? 🔥 ... or somewhere in the middle? 🤝 We have you covered 👇🏻 www.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/hub-ai-trans...

For anyone interested, here are some results from a study I did a few years ago Each dot represents projected pts yielded from 50 play-throughs of randomised versions of @fplreview.com's 20/21 data, with a decay rate (α) and FT value (β) selected using Bayesian optimisation (8 GW horizon)

fplreview@fplreview.com

@trout-post.com did some heavy analysis on what setting parameters yielded the best outcome a while back that supported ~0.84-0.85. Myself and Mikkel Tokvam had initial rules of thumb (based on concepts like the above) that his analysis ended up close to- which was a pretty cool validation

I never shared these results in detail bc I think they do more harm than good if taken as gospel. My general thoughts are - Any rate 0.8-0.9 is useful - The "optimal" rate probably depends on game state - The best use for decay is to try various rates and learn from the differences between solutions

These results are from just one season, and before recent rule changes I don't think the question of optimal decay rate is closed, but I don't really think it's worth pursuing - it's very boring and noisy and there are other way more interesting & impactful things to study in FPL

Fantasy Football Trout reposted

Another one for #FanTeam now, where purchasing power is fairly similar to FPL (which makes sense given the similar formats and player pricing). You can buy between 0.40-0.45 points per GW for £1m right now, so +0.1 budget this week should be worth around 1.1-1.2 points over the rest of season.

Jonny Currie 🚀@jonnyc.bsky.social

For any #SDT players, I performed the same experiment earlier this season after seeing how volatile the price changes are (FPL seems easy now) ymmv but a clear reduction in buying power since early season, with ~1.05 EV per gw per £1m budget in GW4 now down to ~0.75 ahead of GW12

Fantasy Football Trout reposted

Was struggling to get my brain to function with this for a minute (no doubt just me), but reframing the y-axis as "importance of having money" seemed to help. The chart then becomes: "when did having money matter most?" Cool stuff! #FPL

Fantasy Football Trout@trout-post.com

FPL inflation: How has value for money changed across recent seasons? This plot tracks how many additional points you can buy each GW with an a £1m higher budget, since the start of 2021-22 📈

I love drifting off to the slow cascade of solver output 🥱 In fact, I seldom sleep without it The algorithmic lullaby calms my soul. With every passing moment the only certainty is progress towards the global optimal. By the time I wake the duality gap will be zero, but not before I close my eyes

FPL inflation: How has value for money changed across recent seasons? This plot tracks how many additional points you can buy each GW with an a £1m higher budget, since the start of 2021-22 📈

View full thread

- Purchase power hit its highest before GW2 of 22-23, when both Haaland and Salah were essential, and the game lacked budget enablers - This fell to an all-time low in the final GW of 22-23, when managers could afford near-optimal teams with normal budgets (@anthony.football's teams for reference)

In general, across recent seasons, you can buy just over 0.3 points per GW for £1m, on average. Therefore, +0.1 budget in GW1 tends to be worth around 1.2 points over the whole season. Currently (before GW12), the value of £1m is relatively high, at about 0.35 points (have a zoomed-out picture too)

FPL inflation: How has value for money changed across recent seasons? This plot tracks how many additional points you can buy each GW with an a £1m higher budget, since the start of 2021-22 📈

Some observations: - Price constraints ease for most of the season as prices adjust down towards outcomes - 2021-22 bucked this trend early, likely due to the high number of mid-season COVID postponements - Inflation dips (value for money increases) before chip season, when more points are on offer

I haven't made an original FPL viz since 2021. Motivation for progress always comes from others, and as the old platform died so did my passion. Excited to finally be creating something new, using data from alllll the way back in 2021 to now 🧑‍🍳 Solver's been running 24hrs straight, nearly finished!