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📺 Gameweek 12 - James' Wildcard @pras-fpl.bsky.social and @jonnyc.bsky.social are joined by @trout-post.com, CTO of Solio Analytics, to discuss some recent Solio features, planning with risk, and James's chip strategy and wildcard draft (he has all his chips left!) youtu.be/Ic-JVdnwQGg
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For anyone who missed it, a few friends and I have spent all of our free time over the last 18 months building an FPL tool (@solioanalytics.com). Check it out!
Introducing Solio: A New FPL Tool 📺 @pras-fpl.bsky.social and @jonnyc.bsky.social are joined by @trout-post.com to showcase the tool’s different features and how it can give you a competitive edge in the 2025/26 FPL season. youtu.be/p9cabL8lfdY
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I had the privilege of participating in the testing phase of the new Solio FPL tool! I particularly liked how you can run deep optimisations with your own assumptions baked in. It’s the kind of tool you’ve always wanted. Try it yourself! @solioanalytics.com #FPL #FPLCommunity #Solio
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Welcome to Solio and the 2025/26 FPL season Here it is, our first ever video. Join @pras-fpl.bsky.social and @jonnyc.bsky.social as they talk briefly about Solio and mostly about the upcoming #FPL season. Hope you like it! youtu.be/iZEdS3BAA2U
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We’ve been anything but on the beach since the FPL season ended. @robtfpl.com and @cmusson.uk have joined Solio as partners, and we couldn’t be more excited for what’s ahead. Read all about it in our latest newsletter: solioanalytics.beehiiv.com/p/robt-moose...
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First time our FPL projections are out in the wild. Using RobT's expertise in spread markets and our own analytical approaches, we built it together. Seeing it actually show up in people's timelines as something useful and worth sharing makes me really happy.
💹 PL GW36-38: teams to target A look at the teams with the highest total projected goals and clean sheet odds over the last three Premier League fixtures of the season, via spread betting markets and @solioanalytics.com 👇
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Can’t wait to join such talented group of people trying to make FPL decision making fun. Thanks for including me in the team. Solio, remember the name.
We’re excited to share that @pras-fpl.bsky.social is joining Solio as a partner and Lead Host for our YouTube channel: youtube.com/@solioanalytics Also: we’ve decided to switch from a soft launch to a closed beta this spring. We’ll need testers—details below. #FPL
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We’re excited to share that @pras-fpl.bsky.social is joining Solio as a partner and Lead Host for our YouTube channel: youtube.com/@solioanalytics Also: we’ve decided to switch from a soft launch to a closed beta this spring. We’ll need testers—details below. #FPL
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Exciting news! @cmusson.uk—aka Moose—is now leading our FPL Python solver as Open-Source & Community Engagement Lead! 🫎 Solio was built on open-source, and with Moose at the helm, we’ll keep growing, contributing, and supporting the community. More to come! #FPL #FPLCommunity
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"Assistant Manager" chip, modeled. ✅ It’s live on the 'am-chip' branch of the solver for testing until the next GW deadline. Includes 3-player limit, ITB, chip restrictions and some initial preliminary projections from @trout-post.com and @jonnyc.bsky.social 🚀 Plan: merge into main this weekend.
Sweaty gimp/Dell Inspiron lifestyle is in fact very fun 🥵🧑🍳
It's so convoluted that I don't see how even analytics heads will find it fun to model. You'll just feel like a sweaty gimp spending so much time modelling a chip so complex that average players have no chance of working out themselves without the latest Dell Inspiron. There's no fun in that.
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I calculated the EVs for the Assistant Manager in each fixture. For now, not factored in probability of being 5 places below so: Pts = EV if they not 5+ places below Pts++ = EV if they are 5+ places below From my team strength model
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New samples are added to #FPL Season Highlights page 🔥 Now you can compare your season to: - Analytics Elite 64 (Run by @analyticf.pl) - Elite 64 (Run by @fplgeneral.bsky.social) - Bullet Wisdom (Analytics Discord) - Analytics Elite Qualifier (Run by @analyticf.pl) fploptimized.com/highlights.h...
In GW9, all Elite 64 members owned Haaland. I WCd into a team without him. I did this not because of any analytics/optimisation insight, but bc City's years of corrupt organisational ethics were bound to result in Haaland kicking the ball with the wrong part of his foot, sometimes even his ankle
Salah and Haaland ownership% in Analytics Elite 64 and Elite64 minileagues Elite64 managers were less keen to start with Salah, but were quicker to pick him up for GW4/5, and much keener to double up with Haaland for that period. AE64 managers were quicker to drop Haaland for Salah in GW10.
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this week's column www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/n...
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Have been thinking about takeaways from the wonderful bps podcast from @aboveaveragefpl.bsky.social and I think I have found something vaguely interesting re: forwards and the value of their first goal vs additional goals. This season forwards have 191 bonus points from 110 goals.
Tree for the tree enthusiasts out there: www.monumentaltrees.com/en/gbr/engla... Real privilege to see in person
For anyone interested, here are some results from a study I did a few years ago Each dot represents projected pts yielded from 50 play-throughs of randomised versions of @fplreview.com's 20/21 data, with a decay rate (α) and FT value (β) selected using Bayesian optimisation (8 GW horizon)
@trout-post.com did some heavy analysis on what setting parameters yielded the best outcome a while back that supported ~0.84-0.85. Myself and Mikkel Tokvam had initial rules of thumb (based on concepts like the above) that his analysis ended up close to- which was a pretty cool validation
The xMins were decayed as usual, so in my opinion decay rate performs some function besides to account for mins decay (cc @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social 😜)
While we're on the subject, I'm not sure how to feel about this framing of decay as risk preference 🤔 Decay is the balance of chasing short/long-term gains. Chasing short-term gains is inherently "riskier", but this is only a tiny part of how FPL managers engage with risk bsky.app/profile/ffh-...
📢 BIG NEWS... Our AI has recieved a major upgrade! 🤖 Tailor it to your FPL management style 💪 Want to play it safe? 🤔 Want to take risks? 🔥 ... or somewhere in the middle? 🤝 We have you covered 👇🏻 www.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/hub-ai-trans...
For anyone interested, here are some results from a study I did a few years ago Each dot represents projected pts yielded from 50 play-throughs of randomised versions of @fplreview.com's 20/21 data, with a decay rate (α) and FT value (β) selected using Bayesian optimisation (8 GW horizon)
@trout-post.com did some heavy analysis on what setting parameters yielded the best outcome a while back that supported ~0.84-0.85. Myself and Mikkel Tokvam had initial rules of thumb (based on concepts like the above) that his analysis ended up close to- which was a pretty cool validation
I never shared these results in detail bc I think they do more harm than good if taken as gospel. My general thoughts are - Any rate 0.8-0.9 is useful - The "optimal" rate probably depends on game state - The best use for decay is to try various rates and learn from the differences between solutions
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Another one for #FanTeam now, where purchasing power is fairly similar to FPL (which makes sense given the similar formats and player pricing). You can buy between 0.40-0.45 points per GW for £1m right now, so +0.1 budget this week should be worth around 1.1-1.2 points over the rest of season.
For any #SDT players, I performed the same experiment earlier this season after seeing how volatile the price changes are (FPL seems easy now) ymmv but a clear reduction in buying power since early season, with ~1.05 EV per gw per £1m budget in GW4 now down to ~0.75 ahead of GW12
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Was struggling to get my brain to function with this for a minute (no doubt just me), but reframing the y-axis as "importance of having money" seemed to help. The chart then becomes: "when did having money matter most?" Cool stuff! #FPL
FPL inflation: How has value for money changed across recent seasons? This plot tracks how many additional points you can buy each GW with an a £1m higher budget, since the start of 2021-22 📈
- Purchase power hit its highest before GW2 of 22-23, when both Haaland and Salah were essential, and the game lacked budget enablers - This fell to an all-time low in the final GW of 22-23, when managers could afford near-optimal teams with normal budgets (@anthony.football's teams for reference)
I haven't made an original FPL viz since 2021. Motivation for progress always comes from others, and as the old platform died so did my passion. Excited to finally be creating something new, using data from alllll the way back in 2021 to now 🧑🍳 Solver's been running 24hrs straight, nearly finished!