The Upshot

Breaking News: Benjamin Netanyahu pushed for an attack on Iran ahead of Israel’s election, according to officials.

So far, remarkably high turnout by young Black voters in Georgia. Eye-popping chart.

JUST IN: A Ninth Circuit panel turned down a request from the Trump administration to intervene in a lawsuit against California, writing the request was premature and that stepping in now to order the state to set aside 20,000 mail-in ballots would "undoubtedly" impact its election administration.

In every major racial or ethnic group, views of ICE are now more negative than positive. www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

Texas AG Ken Paxton has taken about 350 out-of-state trips with a state-funded security detail. During a 2017 Israel trip, organizers said Paxton insisted on his own security despite the government providing it for other AGs. His detail cost $75,000. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/26/u... #txlege

Health spending growth is expected to outpace growth in the overall economy and eventually hit 20.6% of GDP by 2034. More on health spending: https://on.kff.org/4yX9C2O

Health insurance premiums rose 5% this year — and workers took the hit.

77% of Latino registered voters who support a Democratic candidate for their district in the House of Representatives say it really matters who wins control of Congress. About half of them say they are extremely motivated to vote.

How are Americans’ views of other countries different by party? Generally, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to rate other countries positively, especially Canada 🇨🇦 and Mexico 🇲🇽.

In this piece… 1. Some data on what undecided and low-turnout-propensity voters care about, from our latest poll 2. Another EV update: Infrequent Democratic voters are turning out at a much higher rate www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-10-25...

With just about a week to go before the 2026 midterms, Times Opinion asked six pollsters and pundits to predict who will win the House and the Senate. Their predictions offer a fairly optimistic outlook for Democrats.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil won re-election on Sunday, halting a string of conservative victories in Latin America. His right-wing opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro, refused to accept the outcome. nyti.ms/4zcqdQp

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Next week's elections could give Arizona Democrats something they haven't had in 60 years: control of the governorship and both chambers of the legislature.

“All in all, North Carolina is poised to prove that a president and a political party can’t outrun reality, not with shady scheming, not with mountains of cash, not with all the swagger and bluster in the world,” writes Frank Bruni.

“If Abdul and the Democrats win, they will open the floodgates and invite hordes of jihadis to our shores, creating a nightmare of violence and terror until you cannot even have a Christmas.”

Breaking News: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated Flávio Bolsonaro to stay president of Brazil, halting the right’s march in Latin America. Follow live updates. nyti.ms/47GKOQJ

www.nytimes.com/live/2026/10...

The future of the Amazon rainforest could depend on who wins www.nytimes.com/live/2026/10...

Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia’s longtime nationalist strongman, conceded defeat Sunday in a general election held after his once-tight grip on power was weakened by nearly two years of student-led protests. nyti.ms/4zegOaY

both Kalshi and Polymarket sitting at around 70/30 to Lula what's come in has been amazing for Lula but it's still early, 70/30 means there's still a ton of uncertainty about the outstanding vote

Serbia’s vote for a new Parliament came just six months after voters in neighboring Hungary rejected their own populist nationalist leader, Viktor Orban. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/25/w...

One attendee, Bishop William Joensen of Des Moines, wrote afterward that “I wish I had been more shrewd and less simple, like those who exploited our meeting for partisan political purposes.” www.nytimes.com/2026/10/25/u...

Youth quakes around the world, including today in Serbia. Here's the story in India: www.nytimes.com/2026/10/25/w...

Brazilians are voting on Sunday to elect a new president in a fiercely fought election that is the biggest test yet for an ascendant right-wing movement winning presidencies across Latin America. Follow live updates.

"In the 1990s, politicians fought for the support of soccer moms. In the 2010s, they competed for votes from white working-class voters. Now it is clear: Latinos are the most important swing voters of the 2020s." www.nytimes.com/2026/10/25/u...

Talarico says Musk is buying "his own personal U.S. senator" in Ken Paxton. Meanwhile, Paxton said in a fundraising email this week that “Democrats are trying to buy President Trump’s Senate Majority... But Elon Musk REFUSES to let them get away with it.” www.nytimes.com/2026/10/25/u...

I'll have an early voting blog post up in a bit, but: On a day Rs expected to do well, Ds had their biggest gain Saturday. The current numbers: D+16,864, or 4.5%. Rurals closed today, so Rs will need to do well in urban Nevada to stanch the bleeding. Post coming...

Late on election night, we'll publish a new comprehensive portrait of how each of the key demographic groups in the country voted. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/25/u...

NEW: Ingram, Texas, was just rebuilding from a devastating flood when its tiny police department enrolled in ICE’s 287(g) deportation program. Within a year, cops would hand over the equivalent of 10% of the town. with @nytimes.com

"Mr. Trump, who has cut U.S. aid to Ukraine by 99 percent, is sending American money to the Kremlin — and therefore to a Russian war machine that the United Nations says is killing Ukrainian civilians at a 'new horrifying level.'" www.nytimes.com/2026/10/24/w...

Democrats Have Edge Across Four Key House Races in Pennsylvania House unicorn Brian Fitzpatrick, a Republican, is in danger of losing, via Times/Inquirer/Siena polling of the state this morning. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/25/u...

As far as our data can tell this is pretty much unambiguously good news for Democrats. Young voters strongly favor the Dems this cycle, including young men allianceforyouthpower.org/wp-content/u...

Introducing a new way to understand how demographic groups voted in an election: Times Voter Trends. Instead of waiting for months for such data, it will be available late on election night. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

LAKSHYA HAS FALLEN I REPEAT LAKSHYA HAS FALLEN

What Are the Best Ways to Fix Schools? (Gift Article) Readers analyze the 30 ideas presented in an Upshot article and offer some of their own. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/24/o...

In @nytopinion.nytimes.com “Everything empirical is saying that this could be a blue wave, this could be a blue tsunami,” our columnist David French says of the midterms on this episode of “The Opinions." And if it comes to pass, "how destructive" will efforts to overturn close elections get?

The toxicity that @ericlipton.nytimes.com and his colleagues have uncovered is everywhere but if you live in Texas, Louisiana, or Alabama pay special attention

Here’s What Democrats Plan to Do With Their Power if They Win Back Congress Via @anniekarni.bsky.social (gift link) www.nytimes.com/2026/10/23/u...

"A rising public backlash against A.I. and growing anxiety over mass surveillance have left some communities with an uncomfortable question: Is the potential loss of privacy worth it?" www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

"Some districts that Republican state legislators redrew last year in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and even Alabama were meant to be safely red, but are no longer sure bets for the party." www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

This is why we desperately need #journalism. And why the @nytimes.com (despite its shortcomings) remains the most important news outlet in America. SO much of Trump's corruption makes all of our lives far worse. It's not (just) that he loots our tax dollars. It's things like this:

Hegseth Barred Trans Troops. Military Boards Are Rejecting Those Orders. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/23/u...

An early, early peek at 2028. Name recognition seems to be ruling the day for now. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/24/u...

"A lot of A.I. music can sound vaguely familiar, like a song you think you know but can’t quite place, because the models that are often used to generate these tracks were trained on large libraries of existing hit songs." www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

www.nytimes.com/2026/10/24/u...

This new report today with my NYT colleague Anton Troianovski follows up on our earlier reporting this month on the Lukoil deal that would bring financial benefits to business partners of the Witkoff and Trump families. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...