Not Again reposted
Here's the thing about tipping blue, even if it's one perfect storm election. This would mean that a cohort of Repubs dislike Paxton enough to vote D for the first time. As someone who voted straight R until '16, I can tell you that breaking the taboo is a watershed for the rest of your voting life.
seeing Elon go on a multi-day crashout about Talarico has really highlighted how psychologically devastating it would be to Republicans if they lost Texas. So much of their self-identity is tied to repping Texas as the anti-California and would be shattered if the state even tipped blue.