Wine Cat

Wine Cat

@wine-cat.bsky.social

Posting for Democracy and Rule of Law. Flood the zone with massive court orders.

1.2K followers404 following7.8K posts

(マニア向け)司法省が主張する、加州の2万人のメール期日前投票が非市民によるもので州は直ちにカウントを止めろと言う訴訟なんだが、この記事に簡潔にまとまってマス。2点あって、非市民による投票は犯罪であるという連邦法の条項が、個人の犯罪の定義だけではなく連邦政府が州の選挙運営に介入する権利まで連邦政府に与えるものなのか、或いは介入は憲法の定める通り議会だけが出来るのか、という点。もうひとつは司法省(連邦政府)が主張する2万人の非市民の投票データの出所と判断方法の妥当性。ただし既報の通り司法省の提示した非市民投票リストにはそれを証明する根拠は一切付されていない。言うまでもなくデッチアゲ訴訟デス。

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司法省の控訴は既に却下されていて、再び地裁に戻って今日ヒアリングが行われるんだが、結果はどうなるか分らない。ただ、何故こういう展開なのかは容易に察しがつく。トランプはデッチアゲで良いからとにかく訴訟で選挙を妨害したいだけ。で、司法省に訴えろと命じて、おそらく証拠がないと反論されたんだろう。で、ここで詐欺師の面目躍如。トランプは「じゃ、全部調べたのか?」とドーカツするワケです。司法省は苦し紛れにインチキ・データをただ加州に押し付けるという展開。これは邪推だけど、ここに至る司法省ドタバタを見ていると実態はもっと酷いもしれない。ま、幼児なので周りが慌てて騒ぐのを見るだけで楽しいというレベルだろう。

追記)トランプの「選挙は盗まれた」は当初は負けを認めたくないトランプが衝動的に言い始めたウソなんだが、それに共和党が加担した辺りから、ドーせ民主党が自らの勝利を完璧に証明するのは議会運営の時間的制約もあって不可能なんだから「盗まれた」と言い続ければ支持者も心地良いのでついてくる、というので実際ソーなったワケです。これも同じ。完璧な証明はムリだからこそちゃんと白黒つけるルール(法律)があるワケなんだが、何故かその論は誰も言わず、最高裁がおかしなプレッツェル理論でトランプ支援というのが今ではすっかりデフォです。

Wine Cat reposted

Maine Polling: Senate: 🔵 Jackson: 49% 🔴 Collins: 47% Governor: 🔵 Pingree: 44% 🔴 Charles: 44% ⚪️ Bennett: 6% Marist / Oct 24, 2026 (Current ME-SEN Model: DEM 50% - GOP 47% (Current ME-GOV Model: DEM 55% - GOP 39%) unitedstatespolling.com/p/the-gops-m...

unitedstatespolling.comThe GOP’s Midterm Nightmare Is Almost HereOne week out, Democrats remain well-positioned in the House, but a handful of close Senate races could shape the final outcome

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Can Palestinians vote in the Israeli election? Yes, but it depends on their status. NBC News' Richard Engel explains how the Palestinian vote depends on where they live, and also on the Arab parties standing for election.

残りちょうど1週間、CA, AKに続いてミネソタ。タフォーヤのエンドースと言うより彼女が負けたら司法省が調査して訴訟と言う脅しデス。このミネソタ上院選、直近のpollでタフォーヤは民主党候補のフラナガンが3ptリードされている。学歴的にはアタマ空っぽではなさそうだが、例によってTV局のスポーツ記者。結局こんな感じでマージンエラー近くの負けは司法省に命じて、訴訟の山作戦だろう。ま、訴訟で勝つつもりは全くないだろうが、州知事が共和党で僅差の場合はどうするのかが興味深い。選挙運営は州の権限なので、自ら運営する選挙で不正があったと主張するんだろうね。赤い州知事全員でコレやれば事実上のクーデターです。

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Trump: "Let's all get behind Michele Tafoya in MN. She's running a great race. Don't allow them to play with the Votes after the race is over. The Federal Govt will be watching closely. The only way she can lose is if they cheat. We can't allow that to happen, because I won MN three times ... "

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From Zelenskyy. Patriot interceptors that could save innocent lives are sitting in European countries for weeks, which they paid for, unable to be transferred to Ukraine because Hegseth refuses to sign off.

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“The Department of Justice is putting its formidable thumb on next week’s elections in a way that seems clearly intended to call into question the legitimacy of any result that is especially unfavorable to Republicans—before those results have even come in.” Me on DOJ’s California and Alaska suits:

stevevladeck.com259. DOJ’s Preemptive Election InterferenceThe Trump administration's California and Alaska suits are losers. But it’ll be hard to remedy the distrust in election results they seem intended to sow.

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🚨 BREAKING: Democrats asked a federal court to throw out the DOJ's unprecedented lawsuit that seeks to preemptively block certification of Alaska’s U.S. Senate race if the Republican incumbent loses.

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Bolsonaro-friendly mayors appear to be sabotaging public transport on Election Day. Buses aren’t running in Lula-friendly areas, flights and ferries mysteriously canceled. Traffic lights have gone out and people’s power cut in Salvador, indigenous people’s travel restricted

Rafa Sales Ross@rafiews.com

We are watching a coup d’état attempt unfold in real time in Brazil. I’m consumed by desperation.

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Nobody's shocked that Jason Miller is the one posting Bolsonaro's refusal to concede. Trumpworld isn't just watching Brazil, they're coordinating. Same playbook, same people, different country. The authoritarian network is global, and it's poison.

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Flavio Bolsonaro has called for the annulment of Brazil’s presidential runoff after losing the election to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in a chaotic vote marred by allegations of suppression and a last-minute extension of voting hours

bloom.bgBolsonaro Calls for Annulment of Election After Loss to LulaFlavio Bolsonaro called for the annulment of Brazil’s presidential runoff after losing the election to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in a chaotic vote marred by allegations of suppression and a last-minute extension of voting hours.

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Europe, Canada, and Brazil are cool-headed. they know right wingers' dreams are fantasy at the end of the day. it's crystal clear when you look at the history.

This week, EU President Ursula von der Leyen arrives in MONTREAL for a historic summit to lock in new deals with Canada on critical minerals, defence, satellites and digital trade. While the White House plays tariff games, Canada is building partnerships. 🇨🇦🇪🇺 ~ Canadian Outlook

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President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva came from behind to win Brazil’s runoff election, halting a right-wing wave sweeping Latin America and defying predictions that the 80-year-old political veteran had finally reached the end of his extraordinary career. bloom.bg/4BsvV24 📷: Maira Erlich/Bloomberg

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These deportations have done nothing for us economically. And they have cost taxpayers and our economy billions. It has turned America into a police state. Remember that as you make a plan to vote by November 3rd. #FlipCongressBlue

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Lula’s projected finish is now 51.68-51.73% with 85% reporting based on mathematical trends. Bolsonaro is cooked.

Anonymous@youranoncentral.bsky.social

At 81% of the vote counted, Lula continues to lead.

he's been doing it since the 2024 campaign. probably it was scripted initially as an instruction to a reality show personality pretending to be POTUS even after he was elected. now it's a routine.

来週は既に投票日の前々日なのでこれが実質最後のpollingUSA予想。下院240-195で45議席差で民主多数、上院53-47で6議席差で民主多数だが、上院はまだ共和党多数の可能性が十分あり、と。共和党は前代未聞の巨額の資金をマスクが上院につぎ込んでいるんだが、いくらでも票を買うだろう。ドー見ても上院でも共和党はかなり劣勢だが、これでも上院は共和党が多数維持となったら、民意と選挙結果は別物、或いはトランプの最初の弾劾と同じで、保守の価値観というファンタジーから今回も米国民は逃れられなかったというオチでしょうね。つまりつけるクスリはない。どちらかと言うとマスクと言うより教会の勝利なんだろうね。

Polling USA@usapolling.bsky.social

Nebraska - Governor Polling: 🔵 Walz: 43% 🔴 Pillen: 40% Concord / Oct 18, 2026 (Model Result For NE-GOV: GOP 47.5% - DEM 46.2%) unitedstatespolling.com/p/the-gops-m...

マニア向け) 一応ブレナンは選挙投票の運営は(法的には)州が行うものと釘は刺しているんだが、ブランチはあたかも連邦政府が上位機関として州に当選者の決定手続きを指示出来るかのような口ぶりですな。ヘリテージのボウトと同じで、トランプが大統領になった事の意味は、憲法にはもはや効力はなく、大統領府が全てを決めるのがトーゼンという前提で話しているところが面白い。無論AGなので何が正しいかは分かった上での発言だろうが、詐欺集団としてはこの論法で国民を騙すしかないんだろう。ま、ここにも最高裁は脅せば法解釈を曲げてでも黙認するという発想がちらつきますな。で、実際その通りなところが今の米国の問題なワケです。

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Blanche on CBS says his suit against Alaska is "asking the court to step in where the Alaska Supreme Court didn't, which is to look at federal law and if necessary to allow a process for Alaska to decide who should be certified as the winner." (So, the voters won't get to decide. Got it.)

yeah, that's the similar bogus assertion as the NC congress tried to decide who should be sent to DC as electors in 2020 presidential election. needless to say, the NC congress is Republican.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Blanche on CBS says his suit against Alaska is "asking the court to step in where the Alaska Supreme Court didn't, which is to look at federal law and if necessary to allow a process for Alaska to decide who should be certified as the winner." (So, the voters won't get to decide. Got it.)

Wine Cat reposted

WELKER: Is a vote for you a vote for the Trump agenda? MIKE ROGERS: Um, I'm apologizing. I'm having some difficultly in my earpiece. But is a vote for you? I'm not sure. I'll tell you what a vote for me is. It's a great day for the state of Michigan

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3 out of 300 polled for a Michigan statewide race would be a poll of 100,000 people.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Mike Johnson: "When I'm in these big arenas, I ask for hands -- 'Show me your hand if you've answered a poll in the last six months.' There will be like three hands among 300 people. I'm telling you, these polls are off. All of them."

フィリプコウスキのサブスタックだが、2つ興味深い箇所。ひとつは後段で出て来る老舗クックの最新pollと分析。この分析は無難な線と見るべきだろう。クック曰く、pollだけではなく選挙ADの効果等勘案してもはや下院で共和党が多数維持は不可能に近い、と。下院435議席で多数派となる218議席で民主党の220議席は既に固く、対する共和党は198議席で、17議席がトスアップ(五分五分)と。つまり五分五分で全て共和党が勝ったとしても共和党は215議席にとどまる、と。クックは慎重派デス。もうひとつはアラスカを司法省が訴えると脅している話。共和党候補と同性同名の無党派候補がいて、僅差で負けたら訴えるそーです。

訴えると言っても理由は何でも良くて、トーゼン同姓同名でも間違えないように所属党が明記される等、配慮はされている。本件はずいぶん前に既にアラスカ州最高裁が不公平はないと判決を下してるのに投票日まで2週間を切って、またぞろトランプが司法省に命じて蒸し返し、と。司法省が訴えなくても同様の難癖訴訟が他州へ広がる事を狙った戦術デス。ついでに、このサブスタックでは珍しいヒラリーのコメント紹介。ワシはクリップも見たが、そもそもヒラリーは自身が大統領候補だったので、陰謀論はあまり言わなかったが、元祖ロシアの陰謀論者です。

曰く、トランプの常軌を逸した行動は全て1. 強者への憧れ、2. カネ儲け、3. ロシアに秘密を握られていて従わざるを得ない、の3つで説明出来る、と。ワシはもう少し陰謀論っぽく「ロシアによる洗脳」派なんだが。

Wine Cat reposted

Trump ordered the DOJ to challenge certification of Alaska’s election if the Democrat wins. Voter confusion is his reason. Here’s why that’s bullshit. 🔴Dan Sullivan is clearly identified on the ballot as the Republican incumbent 🔵Mary Peltola is listed as the Democrat #BlueWaveIn10Days 🧵

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Big update: Trump aides prepare for 'rampage' as the Presidency reaches a breaking point. "This is the beginning of the end." Trump sells out Alaska as secret Russian money is funneled into major energy deal. Hitler's estate is burning. I sit down with Pete Buttigieg. Subscribe today:

aaronparnas.substack.comNEWS: ‘End of a Presidency’ — White House Prepares for Trump ‘Rampage,’ Secret Russian Money Tied to Alaska Deal, Hitler’s Estate BurnsGood morning, everyone.

Wine Cat reposted

UPDATE: The DOJ’s demand to set aside ballots in California is impossible to carry out and has no basis in federal law, L.A. County told a federal court last night. Voting is already underway, the county said, and once a ballot leaves its envelope, it can’t be traced back to a voter.

Wine Cat reposted

🚨BREAKING: On behalf of Mary Peltola's campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Elias Law Group has filed to fight DOJ's lawsuit to rig the Alaska Senate election. We will win this case, Mary will win this election, she will be certified and seated.

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A wild story: the CEO of a US energy company whose plans were discussed during the Witkoff-Kushner-Putin negotiations resigns. Why? He learned that his company's main investor is a sanctioned Russian company, not the UAE www.nytimes.com/2026/10/23/u...

nytimes.comIn U.S. Gas Talks With Kremlin, Hidden Financing for Alaska Project Emerges (Gift Article)Interviews and documents show a Russian energy giant secretly funded a U.S. firm. The deal has been discussed in talks to end the war in Ukraine.