Post

Better say 2%

Check out Speaker John Ash who extends this principle to a basis for society broadly

Easier and more fun: I suggest we simply drown those silly predictions in an ocean of equally silly predictions. For instance, I hereby predict the opening of a kebab shop on Enceladus next Thursday at 18:15 local time.

The articles shouldn't exist in the first place. We shouldn't be letting unqualified people just have platforms.

When I worked for InfoWorld and CommunicationsWeek in the 1980s and 1990s, I did that. I'd keep track of whenever a company said they would ship in Q3 or whatever, and then at the end of the quarter, reported on which ones made it or not. Vendors hated it but readers loved it.

The coverage around those is frustrating, esp. since 99% of them have no intention of hitting those goals or launching anything at all. Make big noisy claim, receive money from credulous investors, sell company to some crypto firm, relax while new owners loot the company to its bare walls, repeat.

practical fusion power is always just 20 years away

If legacy media *must* quote what rich & famous pathological liars say, they should preface it with a concise objective summation of the numerous lies they told in the past

"One Friedman Unit is equal to six months, specifically the "next six months", a period repeatedly declared by New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman to be the most critical of the...Iraq War even though such pronouncements extended back over two and a half years" en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedma...

If I actually had the gumption and time to do it, I would love to just start a prediction tracker website. Every time someone prominent makes a public prediction, mark it down, assign it a confidence estimate, then review it for accuracy. Then rank predictors and organizations against each other.

Along with every time Elon Musk makes a prediction.

And they should be held to account for any red flags they ignored that were obvious at the time, like the fact that Musk has never come close to solving the radiation problem. And let's include those who've lied us into war.

Should trigger automatic securities fraud conviction on the date the prediction fails, like an SEC sword of damocles

I've been seeing articles claiming how we'll be a paperless society in the next few years since the 90's.

Timelines for milestones. We have the Apollo lander up there and a crashed rocket. When will we return? when will the materials be sent to build a base? How many people do we need to put up there? Without those answers he is selling you the Brooklyn Bridge.

Not sure about you guys, but I'm currently posting from Mars in my full self driving Telsa rover.

I'm still waiting on the Mars base by 2003 I was promised in a mid 90s OMNI

That's the right way.

Same for me, but hate in the place of love.

Read it so long ago that I honestly don't remember, but maybe. I do recall him talking about how he no longer had an edge in poker because people had learned to play correctly. The book was good. It was disappointing seeing him start sucking, because statistics is so poorly understood by many.

more like this? en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk

And yet the parade of Reuters articles of "oil prices down because of Trump post", "oil back up as peace talks stall" suggests the article recyclability quotient might be quite high.

Elon Musk, June 17, 2014: "I'm hopeful that the first people could be taken to Mars in 10 to 12 years, I think it's certainly possible for that to occur." www.nbcnews.com/science/spac...

“OpenAI MOU promises royalties for creative IP”

bsky.app/profile/saga...

Astronomy popsci is full of slop, and I hate it. It makes it so hard to find actually good astro journalism.

star trek writers have faced more consequences from setting the Eugenics Wars in the far-off future of the 1990s than all of these guys put together

The laser fired spark plugs, after duckduckgooglin, failed because the lens would be covered in soot.

Linked in seems loaded with claims they are going to use ai to make a lunar mining base or similar. Despite near zero training data to buy or steal. And despite being illustrated with awful ai imagery.