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Nope, it’s the make up of the country. Up north there’s two options. Labour or Reform. Labour destroyed the north, reform are yet to. It’s decades of rot and negligence by the UK government

interesting. as an European outsider looking in...we look at the member states of the UK Union and notice the english voted for pro brexit parties in 2019...and again in 2024. the 2024 GE was a bit confusing...the #GTTO campaign went viral on x with help from elon musk. did brits say "oh fuck!"?

in other words...after the dust settled, when #GTTO voters stopped celebrating labours win...did they not say "Oh fuck! we just elected another pro brexit party into government?" And then looked at how Elon Musk helped that along? Or is the whole of england largely in favour or brexit?

Compared with most other polling organisations, Find Out Now consistently have Reform polling very well and Labour badly. My point is they are usually outliers, and this poll is no different.

A reason why this is misleading is the Reform vote is not concentrated. London alone is 75 seats & even if Greens took 20, Labour & Lib Dem would still limp home there. Uni cities, SE, SW. It’s still insane but a broad and thin vote would not secure this level. Anyway 3.5 years is a long time.

Supplementary Vote like wot Nick wanted would sort this to some extent. A four or five party system is highly volatile in terms of seat tallies for minor swings in votes. Starmer's "landslide" should always have been judged on paltry 34% share not 400+ seats.

Out of interest, why do you think they are less credible than any other pollster? They all make assumptions in how they process the raw data. What evidence do you have that they are any less accurate than other companies?

FPTP has to stop now. It wasn't acceptable in 2024 when Starmer got such a big majority with only a third of voters backing him and most certainly wouldn't be right if Reform get to inflict their awful ideologies on all of us with less than a third of the vote.

I don’t disagree with you but unless Labour ditches the blue Tories, they aren’t going to win seats up here. Labour don’t have a policy issue, it’s an image issue. Unfortunately the party refuses to listen an I fear it’ll be too late before they change direction.

I think we have to engage with the reality. Survation, Ipsos, and Opinium also have Reform on 34% in their most recent polls. Can't find a poll from Verian since the GE. As far as Reform are concerned, YouGov are the outlier.

Those numbers add up to nearly 100. The raw data I saw posted on one of the threads that quoted this one suggests over 1/3 of people asked replied with "don't know", although I think that was an older poll. It seems the largest group don't know how they'd vote, and they're just being excluded.

What we can reasonably conclude is the Reform voters have picked a side early, and likely they'll pick up maybe 5 to 10% of the vote they didn't get last time. That's a very different picture to the one being painted here.