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One of the dumbest posts, if not the dumbest, of 2025 — and also one of the most damaging, in terms of curbing Dem willingness to lead public opinion on immigration. Look at where that graph is now! Complete failure to imagine how opinion could change in the near future www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data

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Two years ago, well-paid *consultants* were pushing Dems needed to focus on kitchen table issues and nothing else. By three weeks ago, *only* consultants were telling them to stick to that. Progressives have been yelling at them to take a stand against authoritarianism for the last year.

So what? That's what being in Opposition is. The Democrat Party *cannot* began campaign for the next presidential election, will not have a leader yet and won't have an agreed set of policies - what is there for anyone to "trust"?

^FWIW, this is largely true even in parliamentary systems where the losing party - if the leader steps down - has a new leader, with some new policy perspective a couple of months after the election they lost in.

Indeed. Dumb on so many levels. Cuz if there is one thing that Republicans have shown over the last three decades, it's that the best electoral strategy is to attack your opponents' strengths and bring those approvals down. Their negatives will always be there to be attacked.

The Dems could have and still should define a comprehensive immigration policy that integrates with the needs of the entire US. The US needs legal immigrants to not only sustain the economy, but to grow it. But the Dems are weak and lazy and are prone to fund raising off MAGA and the status quo..

I’d argue he was never as smart as he thought he was. I can’t think of a single original, insightful, important, thought he’s had

Is there research on whether you should attack your opponents strengths or weaknesses? Yglesias takes it as a given that you should stick to areas where your opponent is unpopular, but it’s not obvious to me that that would be better than trying to diminish an opponents strength?

The main genius of Karl “Turdblossom” Rove was that he understood you attacked opponents against their strengths, not their weaknesses. Voters understand an opponent’s weaknesses. Make them question their strengths.

But *what* was predictable? I would say it was predicable that Trump would overreach and his policies would be less popular. That had little to do with what Ds said. You have a real post hoc propter hoc thing with all these posts where you ignore what Trump did in between the datapoints.

well you can just go and read what i wrote, which was that there would be a backlash to trump's policies since they were broadly unpopular, and that would push his approval rating on these issues down before the next election. and so the the votes maximization for 2024/early 25 opinion was dumb

I totally agree the backlash was predictable and don’t deny you predicted it. The q is whether Ds could have/should have tried to “lead” the backlash. There is a good argument that louder D leading on this would have not helped the D cause. Call it the Trump dug own hole theory.

It’s fine to disagree on tactics but your posts on this ignore the possibility that Trump himself cratered his own standing on the ICE issue - ie, killing Good etc has made this/him much more unpopular than anything Ds could have said in mid 2025. Negative polarization is a real, empirical thing.

Imagine writing a book saying we should have 500,000,000 more immigrants and then being afraid to stand up for immigrants

I don't like Yglesias, but in April of 2024 this made more sense than the alternative - Dems aimed at shit he had literally *already done* and/or said he was gonna do and voters didn't give a shit. The odds that they were going to rhetorically get people to believe *all this* would happen is zero.

Unless we're currently in the middle of a GOP created national hyper-crisis, Democrats trying to explain to voters why they'd be better about literally any fucking issue that's not healthcare or civil rights is basically this Onion article where the second part happens in their collective brains

And this is the larger untold story of the Popularist Dogma: foregone opportunities They are constantly leaving ammo on the table that they could have used. They are constantly foregoing advantages for entire cycles out of cowardice and at great cost. Imagine Yglesias w/veto power behind the scenes.

It’s doubly idiotic for pols to follow opinion polls since he is/was only seen positively through salient propoganda People will have their minds changed if you work to change them. And while the market can be irrational longer than you can be solvent. Long term plans can’t be built on bubbles

The only reason to preemptively curtail your messaging on an issue is if you secretly support the issue. Just by delivering a clear message why something is bad can move the needle, especially when a thing is easily provably and ontologically evil

You mean public opinion at a point in time may not always be the case and it may be useful to anticipate things and show leadership? All serious pundits should wag their fingers with condescension for such a crazy thought.

I am. The winning move is to connect the issues. “Every dollar spent on ICE is a dollar not spent on your healthcare. Republicans are focused on causing chaos in our streets not bringing down costs at the dinner table.” MAGA Republicans want 2026 to be about immigration policy.

as any competent political messenger could point out, ice's actions in minnesota have nothing to do with immigration policy. ordinary people are currently furious because of the masked men executing an innocent citizen on the street, as shown on video, and the admin's brazen lies about the victim.