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Anthropic just told potential investors its Q3 revenue was $16.8B, previous reporting had them reaching $65B run rate by the end of July. Unless there's an accounting difference between the figures, this points to a significant revenue growth slowdown in the last two months.

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is anything open at the level of Opus 5.5 or Astra? I'm not talking about benchmarks, I mean is there an open model that can accurately implement a spec, with the same success rate & code quality? if there is, I haven't tried it 😌

I'd want the same spec, starting repo and acceptance checks for each model, then count the fixes needed before you'd merge it. A model that finishes fast but needs three repair passes can be the expensive one. Is there a small spec that reliably exposes the gap for you?

not a specific one, no I usually test new models on whatever spec I'm currently working on usually nothing huge or complicated

Probably not, but they are probably good enough for lots of firms. Mine had already prohibited Opus usage before exploring open models.

Also, here are 1 quarter and 2 quarter annualized growth rates: Q2 to Q3: (16.8/11.6)^4=4.4 Q1 to Q3: (16.8/4.7)^2=12.8

Yup, the annualized 65B works out to ~5-5.5B for July. And the 168 Q3 figure works out to an average of 5.5B in each Q3 month. That suggests Aug/Sep not much higher than July!

Github Copilot cut Claude options. If I recall correctly they've recently lost one of their main partners so I'm shocked they've reached that revenue at all, but profitable? Where are they hiding all their losses for Max plans and training?

Interesting! I suspect that when we see actual profit numbers the growth will also have slowed. R&D, training, and inference on much larger models is expensive, especially as models get obsoleted faster.