Andy Berner

Andy Berner

@andybrnr.bsky.social

Meteorology PhD, data scientist, ski mountaineer, GSP and Eurohound dad

524 followers904 following2K posts

Andy Berner reposted

I have finally built the app of my dreams. Local vision model takes in a prompt about how you would like your computer to be used, prevents you from using it any other way for the specified duration.

Andy Berner reposted

Claude, plz rewrite wordpress in rust. Yes all the plugins too. No I don't just mean the source code, I mean like, go replace everybody's wordpress install. You don't have access, well funny thing...

SE Gyges@segyges.bsky.social

if you aren't a huge nerd this is terrifying and very funny php is trash. insecure by design. we have known this forever. it still runs some very high fraction of the entire internet, including all wordpress sites and for some reason tumblr anyway everyone using it may be pwned

Wild thread. I find the down-thread response pretty plausible that this was intended to push prediction markets around. Also could have been to shape the race itself, but given the golden age of fraud in which we’re living, the prediction market angle seems obvious. Guess “why not both” also valid.

capitolhunters@capitolhunters.bsky.social

Now that Wedgewood Polls has been exposed as fakers, let's consider the odd fact that this year not one but TWO polling firms put out a fake poll and then claimed it had been a "social experiment" to see if fake data would enter the mainstream. Median Strategies used the same phrase in August. 1/

I think we’re finally starting to see broad availability of abliterated GLM 5.3 and similar open-weight models leading to the proliferation/diffusion of nation-state threat actor level capes to the masses. Gonna find out empirically real quick whether this is offense or defense dominant…

nightshade →home, for now@nightshade.technology

10.0 CVE IN PHP LMAOOOOOOOO today just keeps giving huh

Andy Berner reposted

Replying to @markgsheppard.com

We record recessions as binary, but we shouldn’t also-also think of them as such. Recessions are complex/multivariate phenomena, that differ in severity, duration, kind, solution, and have varying degrees of distributional/disparate impacts. The “vibecession” wasn’t vibes, it was k-shaped.

I mean, after a fashion, though I suppose more like “anti-AI cheating hardware.”

Tony Stark@tonystark.bsky.social

I was at a panel event today and was chatting up the grad students, randomly talking about blue book exams, and one of them asked me “if blue book exams are a kind of anti-AI cheating software”

Andy Berner reposted

At least three genders

Headquarters@headquartersnews.bsky.social

Trump: I said 'do I need an overcoat.' I said I'd rather not wear one. I gotta show I'm all man. We're all men. We're all women. We're whatever the hell we are

Playing around like this is such a fantastic way to build intuition about these systems, and Colin is GOAT at imaginative experimental design.

Colin@colin-fraser.net

A neat natural experiment appears. DeepSeek is rate limited and gets skipped. Argon, to my surprise, seamlessly steps in to play the DeepSeek role, eloquently reporting its subjective experience as DeepSeek in Slot 6. Claude notices something is up.

Very perceptive comment in a great thread that tags an important failure mode of many members of out intellectual elite. It’s a theme that plays into @radiofreetom.bsky.social’s ever-relevant Death of Expertise.

"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux@bretdevereaux.bsky.social

But more to the point I think the ease with which that can be explained is an indictment of this kind of piece - which The Atlantic loves - staring in incomprehension at the easily comprehensible and then trying to make some broader cultural point about it. Instead of just talking to people.

Andy Berner reposted

Replying to @sandwich247.bsky.social

I am not using the mean, I am using the median. The median is appropriate in this context because it is *not* affected by outliers.

Andy Berner reposted

This paper shows why I am skeptical of the idea that frontier models can be easily replaced by cheaper ones (and why you should use the best models as orchestrators): Small improvements in accuracy & judgement compound over long-horizon tasks, creating huge gains in outcomes and reduction in errors.

Catherine Rampell@crampell.bsky.social

Billions of dollars’ worth of contracts predicting oil would fall and the S&P 500 would rise were placed about 15 minutes before Trump announced a U-turn on Iran in a post on Truth Social. CFTC staff began to investigate...then were told to lay off. www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Andy Berner reposted

I have blamed The agents That hacked Your website And which You probably Reasonably thought I controlled Forgive me I am rich And unaccustomed To taking responsibility

Andy Berner reposted

Mathematicians should start picking through the Proofening papers, finding whatever’s valuable, and republishing under their own names. None of it is copyrighted.

Andy Berner reposted

Replying to @beenwrekt.bsky.social

Being an imperfect addition machine that is still batting far above average is honestly a far more interesting result. Like, the only entities we're aware of that can do big math kinda badly are humans, LLMs, and the Pentium P5 800

Trustworthy, well maintained, and readily available economic data is a public good that makes so many important things possible.

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social

Growth in FRED users well above 20% *per year* for 30 years. That's impressive!

Andy Berner reposted

Replying to @lethalityjane.bsky.social

You want an example of focusing on culture war bullshit instead of warfighting, THIS is it. Hegseth isn't worried about the fact that he's set US policy goals in the Gulf back literal decades, no, he's too busy monitoring soldiers' testosterone levels and reveling in what slurs he gets to use.

Palmer’s been reading too much TSwift (the other one)

Mike Black@mikeblack114.bsky.social

what the DoD's new senior advisor thinks is the future of warfare (and no I am not exaggerating, palmer has literally been talking about some bizarre tunneling vehicle that he envisions fighting below land the way a submarine functions underwater, he's convinced this is The Future Of War)

Andy Berner reposted

Man, you have to be just...really racist...not to come away from spending basically any time at all at an American university with a nearly boundless faith in the power of American assimilation. All sorts of students whose ancestors came from all over, utterly and completely American, all the way.

Andy Berner reposted

Andy Berner reposted

My greatest frustrating has been with policy wonks who persist in thinking we can just keep doing normal policy analysis ("calling balls and strikes") in this situation. The President of the United States is both lawless and out of his mind. That preempts all normal discussion.

Andy Berner reposted

this thing seems to work quite well and poking around at it it seems to me like it is actually built to be factual and non-partisan and helpful so you know they are going to lobotomize it to shit by next week

HELL Kennedy@helenkennedy.com

Trump’s new AI website is kinda fun, it turns out.

Andy Berner reposted

AI has now surpassed human level at inappropriately hammering an API that is not intended for bulk data transfer and bypassing whatever weak anti-scraping measures are in place to prevent this. There is nothing left unique about me.

Andy Berner reposted

Decades and decades of a national policy and zeitgeist that amounts to 'nobody needs to care about social studies' and we're now in an unwinnable war with a foreign country whose culture and leadership we did not understand based around geography we ignored. 🤷‍♂️

Mike Smith@msmith1047.bsky.social

Been considering starting to teach and drill my 5th graders on basic map locations, even though nobody gives a shit about social studies.

Andy Berner reposted

The courts should block this. If they don't, we should tear it down on the very first day of the next administration. If possible, Trump should be made to watch the demolition. This, the ballroom, whatever he does to the Kennedy Center and all of the rest. Erase it all. Full damnatio memoriae.

This post is unavailable.

Andy Berner reposted

Rather be poor and not famous than have anyone question in twenty years where I stood on human rights, or if I was afraid to take a stand against evil.

Andy Berner reposted

“The Army started patrolling the Seventh Ministry, but that just turned a two-way gang conflict into a three-way war. Because of how valuable 915 and 916 members were, Chinese soldiers couldn't just shoot them, so they got dragged into melee street brawls."

Nicholas Slayton@nslayton.bsky.social

This episode of @failuretolaunch.bsky.social is one of the wildest stories ever. China's space program in the 1960s ground to a halt as rocket scientists devolved into office politics-based gang violence. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

Andy Berner reposted

RIP OPT? What an unmitigated disaster for everyone.

Michael Clemens@mclem.org

The US President's new proposal to tax international students has been approved by the White House for release this week. It's an unprecedented $100,000 tax on int'l grads who stay to work after graduation on Optional Practical Training (most grads do), a crucial bridge to remaining by any channel.