Natskifte

Absolutely bang-on from @fionaharvey.bsky.social IMHO Nordhaus was a charlatan whose nonsense figures have held back serious climate action for decades www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Future “projections” of massive levels of carbon removal are nothing more than a fantasy. And a reckless one at that.

The danger of a 3C world isn’t that everywhere gets 3C hotter. It’s that the global average hides how extreme things can get locally. Parts of Europe could face heat, drought and fire severe enough to make many places unsafe to live in. www.euronews.com/2026/10/27/e...

How much of the world’s proven coal, oil and gas (i.e. already found, pays to extract at today’s prices) can still be burned for a 66% chance of holding 2 °C? About 30%. The other 70%, 2,040 billion tonnes of CO₂, are stranded assets. Burn it all and CO₂ alone means roughly 2.7 °C Purple = added

Planning for 3°C doesn't make it survivable - but it makes it seem so As Ben Shread-Hewitt and I explain in this recent article...

"...we cannot be confident that temperature decline after #overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks."

WARNING 18+ state violence Fascist goon squad attacks non-violent protesters in Bordeaux, 24 October. Protesters raised their hands to show they posed no threat; the police charged them and unleashed tear gas on them with extreme aggression. 📹 AB7 Media

Models that say we can overshoot 1.5°C & come back down assume: - we will transform our food systems from carbon source to sink - forests and soils keep absorbing 25% of our emissions - oceans keep absorbing another 25% - we enact a vast build-out of tech to pull CO2 back out of the air

I feel I'm pretty hardened at this point but the new UNEP report felt like a gut punch. 2.6°C even with all current pledges filled. This is a serious governance problem, even an existential one. There is no one at the wheel capable of averting a terrible crisis already starting.

Must watch. youtu.be/yJyQXGynwsg?...

Environmental Xtraordinary Xtinction Of Nature

Opening new fossil fuel adventures, new drillings, equals serious crimes against humaninty, and should be rewarded as such.

"The Paris Agreement’s 2 °C objective requires that more than 80% of all proven fossil fuel reserves become stranded resources, and investments in such resources may become stranded assets for industrialized & developing countries."

Great piece by Tom Harris on cloud feedback The world's cloud cover is reducing, which makes the planet hotter This may be why Miocene Climatic Optimum temperatures were 7 - 8C up on pre-industrial for CO2 levels of just 400 - 600ppm Very, very, scary substack.com/home/post/p-...

This is not good. While there were an estimated* 0.3°C improvement from 2024 to 2025, we are now 0.2°C worse off than last year. *: These numbers refer to temperature increases if stated NDCs are delivered, comparing with the 2025 report here: www.unep.org/en/publicati...

On The Climate Brink, @zekehausfather.com has a great post about the problems you can run into when you go fishing for correlations. www.theclimatebrink.com/p/how-not-to...

A nice figure from the IEA showing the flows from primary, to final, to useful energy. This is where people get all fired up about these stupid organisations / people that use primary energy. Well, let me explain why people like me use primary energy... www.iea.org/reports/elec...

"The default position when it comes to communicating #overshoot should be that we expect temperatures to remain at whatever level for not just decades but centuries." #ClimateEmergency

Is a daily global surface temperature anomaly more than 2.0°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline coming by the end of next week? All the stars will be at the big event. Even the Climate 8-Ball will be there. Don't miss out! Source: www.karstenhaustein.com/climate

edition.cnn.com/2026/10/15/c...

It’s really simple: the higher we go, and the longer we stay, the greater the risks to people and ecosystems. wedocs.unep.org/items/156d07...

Sunday 10/18 at 10am PT on Climate Chat: Climate Updates & Ask Us Anything with hosts Dan Miller & @leonsimons.com Leave questions below! #ClimateCrisis #GlobalWarming @bikingmzstacey.bsky.social @radsci.bsky.social youtube.com/live/N-ZOBQP...

"We are witnessing the rapid destabilization of the Earth’s climate system. This is no longer a warning for the future; it is a diagnosis of the present. Earth’s life-support systems are being pushed beyond stable limits, with changes unfolding faster than our ability to respond"

Massive, continuing methane emission from LNG plant seems tied to efforts at carbon capture & sequestration (CCS). blog.datadesk.eco/p/does-chevr...

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

"[Fossil Fuel interests] are trying to fool us because, for them, it is a bridge too far to agree to stop destroying the world and consequently make the rich less rich. No—we can’t make the rich less rich! That would be “degrowth,” a fate worse than climate change itself." - @doctorvive.bsky.social

Climate simulations spanning centuries to millennia suggest that an El Niño-like climate state could persist for centuries after emissions cease, bringing lasting rainfall shifts and more frequent extreme El Niño events. Net zero ≠ climate reset. www.nature.com/articles/s43...

"These findings suggest a narrower window remains to limit warming to 1.5 °C, underscoring the urgency for rapid and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions"

The October runs for dynamical El Niño models are now all out, and its a mixed bag. Some revise the event downward, some upward, but on average its still expected to peak at ~4C, albeit with the peak more likely to occur in December than November:

"We can no longer take a 30-year average of past extreme weather and extrapolate that into the future. We don’t know what will emerge as the atmosphere undergoes very rapid change at rates humans have never experienced."