Christian Julliard

🚨 "Consumption in Asset Returns" (w. Svetlana Bryzgalova & Jiantao Huang) forthcoming @ Journal of Finance We use asset returns to uncover the elusive dynamics of consumption. Turns out, financial markets know a lot about future consumption—and it matters for both macro & asset pricing 🧵👇 1/n

@econmsk.bsky.social and Levine's new WP on Fertility in high-income countries has two remarkable graphs www.nber.org/papers/w3398... The first shows the enormous shift up in share of women delaying / choosing to not have any kids across cohorts:

A must read. 20 years of USAID avoided an estimated 91 million preventable deaths worldwide. The 2025 cuts to 83% of its programmes are projected to result in 14 million preventable deaths by 2030. The Lancet: 🧪 www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

My flight to Chicago landed in Milwaukee, leaving me stranded and miss my connection to London. A learning experience: consumer protection in US v EU is (dark) night v day.

New from @chloeneast.bsky.social at Can We Still Govern: AEI cited her work to make the case for SNAP work requirements. Chloe explains that her and other research show that work requirements reduce SNAP access while doing nothing for employment outcomes. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/what-aei-g...

BREAKING: Judge McFadden has *granted * the AP’s injunction against the White House’s ban on access to the Oval Office and East Room.

Tariffs xkcd.com/3073

Google searches for "filing for unemployment": 1/ This thread is inspired by the great @aaronsojourner.org , who is a pioneer (along with @paulgp.com and Elizabeth Pancotti) in nowcasting unemployment insurance claims using Google Trends data.

(Marketing with?) fear of a run

If I had not cancelled already my monthly donation to @theguardian.com because of the economic illiteracy of their editorial team, this attack on central bank independence would have been the last straw

We should go after all the economists stating “Let $(\Omega , \mathcal{F}, P)$ denote ….” without ever citing Kolmogorov

UK used car price trends are quite telling:

I wonder how much the commodification of education, at all levels, has to do with it. Thinking and tackling complexity is hard, painful, and frustrating. Hence at odds with "customer" satisfaction. Have humans passed peak brain power? www.ft.com/content/a801... @jburnmurdoch.ft.com

On behalf of the ones that still care about facts (and seem to be disappearing), a zillion thanks to the @kiel.institute for putting this together: www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-a...

Automakers warn that Trump tariffs will hike vehicle prices as much as 25% www.reuters.com/business/aut...

Recently accepted by #QJE, “The Impact of Being Denied a Wanted Abortion on Women and their Children,” by Londoño-Vélez (@jlondonovelez.bsky.social) and Saravia: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

On day 4, this is a new frontier This is NOT cutting off new funds for research (see NIH review suspension) These data were already out the door It COSTS resources to yank it back This is eliminating data access so we can’t see what is happening to us

PLEASE RT :) Submit to the annual Network Science and Economics Conference, the largest US event for network theory and empirical research in and adjacent to economics Deadline Jan 30 (soon!) Conference Apr 11-13 at Stanford

"Audits of high-income taxpayers are more costly, but the additional revenue raised more than offsets the costs...the returns to marginal audits...exceed the returns to average audits...Deterrence...results in the 12:1 return above the 90th percentile." academic.oup.com/qje/article/...

Time for the last teaching fine tuning, so just finished the material for the practical "how to" of robust Bayesian Asset Pricing: christianjulliard.net/bayesian-fac... Pretty happy about my first crack at R Markdown slides -- I will never show again codes in a different format. 🧪

#ASSA2025 livestream sessions available to everyone at

Ariel is always a must read

New evidence that it was the economic vibes, stupid open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

I think this should be kind of a big deal: Elon Musk tweeting at 1:03am, “Only the AfD can save Germany.” The AfD is Germany’s neo-Nazi party.

Are you on the job market and have very few interview requests (<5, say)? Now is the time to email your advisor and ask for help!

A quadrillion thanks to @eohneberg.bsky.social for porting to Julia the BayesianFactorZoo R package. Julia package: github.com/eohne/Bayesi... R version: cran.r-project.org/web/packages... And our original paper: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... No excuses for sloppy inference anymore ;)

I probably shouldn't have called a parasitical racket a parasitical racket paulkrugman.substack.com/p/health-ins...

Revised version of our paper with Bo Cowgill and Andrea Prat just out. We document how mergers in the US are followed by large and persistent increases in lobbying activity. Firms with market power also try to gain political power. www.nber.org/papers/w33255

A group of researchers has attempted to replicate our work on self-control and asset market prices published in the Review of Financial Studies (doi.org/10.1093/rfs/...) and not been able confirm our findings. See doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...

new WP y'all www.nber.org/papers/w33236

Econ RA/Predoc Opportunity! Ben Feigenberg & I are looking for an RA to work with us on projects studying the impacts of restorative justice in schools. Apply here! uchicago.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/Extern... @econ_ra @UChicago @thisisUIC @HarrisPolicy @BeckerFriedman #EconSky

Pretty striking findings! www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/app/uploads/...

If you see this post, can you please help spread this information? #ASafeChoice is a referral network of physicians who provide medication abortion services ACROSS THE US. People everywhere need to know about this option. These doctors have capacity to help more women! Let’s spread word! ❤️✊

Yes, make sure to have an updated and informative website!

Economists love using linear regression to estimate treatment effects — it turns out that there are perils to this method, but also amazing perks Come with me in this 🧵 if you want to learn about our now-published paper "Contamination Bias in Linear Regressions!" 1/ (Twitter rerun!)

Some of the most important lottery anomalies from the behavioral risk literature (e.g., probability weighting and loss aversion) actually have nothing to do with risk. They also arise in perfectly deterministic settings. Lead article in the latest AER issue: www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Alright, I've got zero followers right now—let's see if this thread on my JMP can escape the depths of the internet. TL;DR: Labour market power leads to large productivity losses. Keep reading if you’re interested in misallocation, tech diffusion, and regional disparities (you should be!).

The usual suspects are out there yelling "There are 23 million government workers! Fire most of them!" No awareness that most work for local governments, and most of *them* are schoolteachers. Federal employment hasn't grown since the 1950s