Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

The panic of 1873 is really hard to conceptualize. It was actually the longest economic contraction in U.S. history!

sigmund? sigmund it's your cousin marvin... marvin freud... you know the thing you've been talking about where there's some libidinal force inside us that seeks egoic shattering even unto death... well you're not gonna believe this but I'm looking at the news and im thinking, call it the death drive

🚨 Bonds are like party balloons. www.ft.com/content/7cd5...

We found that as of right now 73% of your campaign donation goes back to the consultants and vendors (!!!), four times more than just 20 years ago. Only 13% to ads. Even I was shocked.

📣 Postdocs at Yale FDS! 📣 Tremendous freedom for work on the foundations of data science with faculty across campus, multi-year, great salary. Deadline 11/6. Spread the word! Application: academicjobsonline.org/ajo/jobs/32396 More about Yale FDS: fds.yale.edu

the second el-sayed chose to treat tommy as an equal and not a nuisance, tommy was cooked

Some green shoots for our PhD market in economics! But, under the hood there is lots of heterogeneity! Adjust on both margins like we find optimizing candidates did their search years ago: ideas.repec.org/p/feb/natura...

Accelerating prepared students in middle school math has positive effects in high school and college, including closing gender gaps in core STEM majors (sci/math/engineering). Put differently, failure to provide acceleration exacerbates such gaps and generates lots of lost intellectual potential.

Did a (very scientific, much unbiased) poll of the audience at the <<Empirical Methods in the Age of AI>> conference I just attended. Here were the results! hai.stanford.edu/events/empir...

Anyways, if you know someone who has ~2+ years of experience with Bayesian statistics in a production setting, is located in the U.S., Canada, or Latin America (U.S. Central or Eastern time strongly preferred), and wants to build a personalization engine for subscription apps with me, shoot me a DM.

Fun ways to procrastinate in your research statement with @typsliric.bsky.social

Tenure packet officially submitted, wish me luck!

From our AEA cttee on the job market, here's the first update on the status of the job mkt for PhD economists of the 2026-27 cycle. A thread with graphs follows... #EconJobMarket #EconSky @aeainformation.bsky.social @aeacswep.bsky.social @joelistings.bsky.social 1/9

The bond yield story just keeps getting starker.

We're hiring two folks at Miami Econ this year! One health One "applied micro" Dynamic fun department in small town with big town (Cincinnati) nearby! Tell your friends and apply! www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....,

Eyebrow-raising presentation at @brookings.edu BPEA conference by Columbia's Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh on the enormous scale of the data center build-out and the opaque leverage that's financing it. VIDEO (15 minutes) www.youtube.com/live/UaQDp-G...

Shameless self-promotion and a request. My publisher is asking me to encourage Amazon reviews, so.... If you bought How Economics Discovered Women on Amazon and like it, it would help me out if you post a short review. news.ucsb.edu/2026/022818/...

A pretty solid week as we head into the meat of the econ job market season #econsky

Gift link, and some reactions herein. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/25/o...

It is so good to see @reportermatt.bsky.social, who was in like 80% of my classes in college, become the most influential reporter in Massachusetts. He just loves the place, and you can tell in everything he does. A truly wonderful man making the whole state better.

This quote by haunts me. From Wilcox's "Introduction to Robust Estimation and Hypothesis Testing" #stats

Might be of interest: @imarinescu.bsky.social @alminas.bsky.social @avigoldfarb.bsky.social @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social @erikbryn.bsky.social @jmorenocruz.bsky.social @julianreif.bsky.social @paulgp.com @johnlist.bsky.social @johnvanreenen.bsky.social

I'm reminded of one of my favorite passages in Banerjee and Duflo's "Good Economics for Hard Times". "The goal of social policy, in these times of change and anxiety, is to help people absorb the shocks that affect them without allowing those shocks to affect their sense of themselves.."

my two brains

we are such fucking morons it is so unbelievable sometimes

Embracing my 40s (This porch was so loud, my watch gave me 5 100db warnings and I couldn't hear myself at all)

With apologies if someone has beaten me to the punch... I've cloned and updated the economics job market tracker from @paulgp.com to get a sense for how the market is going so far this year. Good news: better than 2025 Bad news: not by much

🚨 Announcing OpenCensus, a new project with @ezrakarger.bsky.social : We are transcribing the historical US censuses and releasing them as open data 2.6 million people so far in 1940, browse here: opencensus.us

I'm back, I missed you all. Since this is an important subject I know too much about, here's a 🧵 explaining that AI Safety Is Mostly A Sex Cult. I don't think these people should make policy. (1/?) (alternative title: Time For Some Cult Theory)

Are you a disability researcher working in the FSRDC wondering where the 1980s disability variable in the CPS went? I've written a CES Technical Note describing my process of bringing in those missing data! ideas.repec.org/p/cen/tnotes...

The bitterest lesson: "Rich Sutton’s incompleteideas.net/Inc… states that compute beats algorithms. My experience is that Sutton’s bitter lesson is the tip of an iceberg of bitterer lessons: beyond compute and algorithms, there’s data and even picking the right task to do ML on."

This is an extremely cool teachign example

There’s a lot of doom & gloom around how AI is affecting higher education. To a certain extent, I get it. AI is making some things harder. But I’ve found that AI has in some ways greatly enhanced my teaching. For one, it’s opened up applied activities that weren’t possible before. One example: 🧵

New post reviewing Zidar and Zwick's new book, which I loved. paulgp.substack.com/p/who-is-ric...

Come see our band this weekend at East Rock's Porch Fest at 4pm

Interesting split by number of authors

Nothing quite like the joy of dropping $$ on new band gear (in ear monitors for the vocalists so we're no longer hostage to the lead guitarist)

Really good - and helpful - stuff from @paulgp.com #EconSky 📉📈 paulgp.substack.com/p/how-do-we-...