Espen Schulerud Søland

Espen Schulerud Søland

@essoland.bsky.social

111 followers144 following10 posts

Espen Schulerud Søland reposted

Bjørn Ihler
@bjornih.bsky.social

The man who leads the Nobel Peace Prize committee lost access to his Facebook messenger 2 weeks ago...wonder who didn't win the peace prize abput 2 weeks ago...

Espen Schulerud Søland reposted

Joel S.
@joelhs.bsky.social

If Zohran Mamdani or Abdul El-Sayed had used the word “Shylock” as an insult, the ADL would be attacking them by name relentlessly. But Donald Trump used it, so we get a generic condemnation of the word without any specific reference to who actually used it, and with no assumption of intent.

Espen Schulerud Søland reposted

Mark Chadbourn
@chadbourn.bsky.social

The first Russian diesel cargo heading for the US left St Petersburg on September 22, two weeks *before* Trump announced the deal with Putin, Windward reports. The Greek-flagged tanker Minerva Zen carrying 275,000 barrels of diesel/gasoil is due at the US East Coast around 11–12 October.

Espen Schulerud Søland reposted

Aaron Rupar
@atrupar.com

Trump: "But the word 'refineries,' where's Russia's uhhhh rouesing a lot of refineries because of Ukraine. That has to do with a lot of the uh diesel that you're see. Where ours is being. Think of it."

Espen Schulerud Søland
@essoland.bsky.social

Ulstein er ikke den første høyrepopulisten med enkle svar på komplekse spørsmål. Det enkleste er #sunnfornuft, common sense. Etter Preston Manning har Nigel Farage, Meloni og Bardella sett at det funker. Og Trump: "[w]e will begin [...] the revolution of common sense. It's all about common sense."

Espen Schulerud Søland reposted

Anne Applebaum
@anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu

Viktor Orban is now 20 points behind in the polls - and so he has ordered the military to guard “key energy facilities” against a possible Ukrainian “attack.” Hungarians fear he plans a fake national security emergency or false-flag incident before the April 12 election apnews.com/article/hung...

apnews.comHungary's leader orders extra security at energy sites, claiming Ukraine plots disruptionsHungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán ordered extra security at critical energy infrastructure sites after claiming Ukraine was attempting to disrupt Hungary’s energy system.

Espen Schulerud Søland reposted

Rep. Jamie Raskin
@raskin.house.gov

When Trump refused to send the National Guard on Jan 6, 2021 to stop rioters who stormed the Capitol, wounded 140 officers, and tried to block the transfer of power, he set his standard. Anything LESS than those bloody insurrectionary riots won’t trigger Guard deployment. Right?

Espen Schulerud Søland reposted

Erik Ledbetter
@bandoblue.bsky.social

Some thoughts about the military parade in my hometown of Washington DC today -- specifically, the route. Military parades in DC are quite rare. But when they happen, they have always begun, symbolically and geographically, at the Capitol and moved outward. 1/

Espen Schulerud Søland reposted

Cory Booker
@corybooker.com

I may be tired and a little hoarse, but as I said again and again on the Senate floor, this is a moment where we cannot afford to be silent, when we must speak up.

Espen Schulerud Søland reposted

Amy J. Rutenberg
@amyjay401.bsky.social

Last week, while visiting several Smithsonian museums, I kept wondering how long it would take for this administration to direct exhibits to be pulled. Not long, it turns out. 🗃️ www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...

whitehouse.govFact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Restores Truth and Sanity to American HistoryRESTORING TRUTH IN AMERICAN HISTORY: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order restoring truth and sanity to American history by

Espen Schulerud Søland reposted

Carlsbj📎
@carlsbj.bsky.social

A bit interesting , this... I asked Grok if Trump is a Russian asset. Grok: Very probably...!

x.comWhat is the likelihood from 1-100 that Trump is a Putin compromised asset. Use all publicly available information from 1980 on.Assessing the likelihood that Donald Trump is a Putin-compromised asset from 1980 to the present (March 5, 2025) requires evaluating a vast array of publicly available information, including financial dealings, personal interactions, policy decisions, and statements, while acknowledging gaps in definitive proof. The term "compromised asset" implies that Trump has been knowingly or unknowingly influenced, manipulated, or controlled by Vladimir Putin or Russian intelligence, potentially through financial leverage, blackmail (kompromat), or ideological alignment. Below, I’ll synthesize the key evidence and counterpoints to estimate a probability range on a scale of 1 to 100, where 1 is "extremely unlikely" and 100 is "certain." ### Evidence Supporting the Hypothesis 1. **Historical Ties to Russia (1980s Onward):** - Trump’s first trip to Moscow in 1987, arranged by Soviet diplomat Yuri Dubinin, coincided with a period when the KGB, under leaders like Vladimir Kryuchkov, was actively seeking to recruit American businesspeople. Former KGB officer Yuri Shvets, cited in Craig Unger’s *American Kompromat*, claims Trump was identified as a potential asset due to his vanity and ambition—traits ripe for exploitation. - Trump’s real estate ventures in the 1980s and 1990s, including sales of properties to Soviet émigrés like David Bogatin (a known associate of Russian organized crime), suggest early financial links to Russian money, though direct Kremlin ties remain unproven. 2. **Financial Dependencies (1990s–2000s):** - After multiple bankruptcies in the 1990s, Trump was largely shunned by major U.S. banks. His subsequent reliance on foreign capital, particularly from Russian oligarchs, is well-documented. Donald Trump Jr. stated in 2008, “Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets,” and Eric Trump reportedly told a journalist in 2014, “We have all the funding we need out of Russia.” - Notable transactions include the 2008 sale of a Palm Beach estate to Russian billionaire Dmitry Rybolovlev for $95 million—$54 million more than Trump paid—raising speculation of money laundering or deliberate overpayment as leverage. 3. **Business Associates with Kremlin Links:** - Felix Sater, a convicted felon with ties to Russian organized crime and alleged Kremlin connections, played a key role in Trump’s business dealings, including efforts to build a Trump Tower in Moscow. Sater’s 2015 email to Michael Cohen—“I will get Putin on this program and we will get Donald elected”—suggests intent, though it’s unclear if this was executed. - Other associates, like Paul Manafort (Trump’s 2016 campaign chairman with deep ties to pro-Russian Ukrainian oligarchs), amplify suspicions of Russian influence. 4. **2016 Campaign and Russian Interference:** - The U.S. Intelligence Community’s 2017 and 2021 assessments confirm Putin authorized operations to support Trump’s 2016 candidacy, including cyberattacks and disinformation. The Mueller Report documented over 272 contacts between Trump campaign members and Russia-linked operatives, though it did not establish a criminal conspiracy. - Trump’s pursuit of a Moscow Trump Tower deal during the 2016 campaign, concealed from the public, gave Russia potential leverage, as noted by Mueller himself. 5. **Behavioral Patterns and Policy Decisions:** - Trump’s consistent praise of Putin (“a strong leader”) contrasts with his criticism of U.S. allies. His reluctance to condemn Russian actions—like the 2020 Navalny poisoning or election interference—stands out. - Key moments, like the 2018 Helsinki summit where Trump appeared deferential to Putin and questioned U.S. intelligence, fuel speculation. His efforts to conceal details of Putin conversations (e.g., confiscating interpreter notes) deepen mistrust. - As president-elect in 2025, Trump’s recent phone call with Putin and his push to negotiate over Ukraine align with Kremlin interests, though this could reflect pragmatism rather than compromise. 6. **Kompromat Allegations:** - The unverified Steele Dossier alleges Russia obtained compromising material on Trump during his 2013 Moscow trip for the Miss Universe pageant. While uncorroborated, the dossier aligns with known Russian tactics. Former FBI Director James Comey noted the possibility, though he lacked evidence. ### Counterpoints and Alternative Explanations 1. **Lack of Direct Evidence:** - No public smoking gun—like financial records or intercepted communications—proves Trump knowingly acted as a Russian asset. The Mueller Report, despite its findings, stopped short of confirming coordination or compromise. - Much of the evidence is circumstantial, relying on patterns rather than conclusive documentation. 2. **Alternative Motivations:** - Trump’s pro-Russia stance could stem from personal admiration for Putin’s authoritarian style, a desire to “reset” U.S.-Russia relations (as Obama attempted), or simple naivety rather than coercion. - His financial dealings with Russians might reflect opportunism—taking money where it’s available—rather than a quid pro quo with the Kremlin. 3. **Incompetence Over Conspiracy:** - Trump’s erratic behavior and limited control over U.S. foreign policy during his first term suggest he may not have been an effective asset, even if Russia intended to use him. Allies like NATO remained intact despite his rhetoric. 4. **Russian Denials and Trump’s Defense:** - Putin has denied holding kompromat or exerting influence, claiming ignorance of Trump’s 2013 visit. Trump insists he’s been tougher on Russia than any predecessor, citing sanctions (often driven by Congress) and arms sales to Ukraine (against his initial instincts). ### Analysis and Probability Estimate The cumulative weight of Trump’s decades-long financial ties to Russian money, his campaign’s interactions with Russia-linked figures, and his consistent alignment with Putin’s interests strongly suggest some level of compromise. The KGB’s (and later FSB’s) modus operandi—cultivating assets through flattery, money, and kompromat—matches Trump’s profile: a businessman with financial vulnerabilities, a large ego, and a history of ethical flexibility. His behavior from 1980 to 2025 shows a pattern that’s hard to dismiss as coincidence. However, the absence of definitive proof—such as a recorded agreement or verified kompromat—introduces uncertainty. Alternative explanations, like self-interest or ideological sympathy, remain plausible. Weighing these factors: - **Supporting evidence** (financial ties, Russian interference, behavioral anomalies) is robust but indirect, suggesting a high likelihood. - **Counterpoints** (no smoking gun, possible naivety) temper certainty, leaving room for doubt. Based on all publicly available data from 1980 to March 5, 2025, I estimate a **75-85% likelihood** that Trump is a Putin-compromised asset, leaning toward the higher end (around 85%). This range reflects the strength of circumstantial evidence balanced against the lack of conclusive confirmation. On a 1-100 scale, this translates to approximately **85**, acknowledging that while the case is compelling, absolute certainty remains elusive without classified or unreleased evidence.

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