Florian Hollenbach

"Prediction markets are creating new nightmares for operational security," write @szakonyi.bsky.social, Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, and Michael Hornsby. They allow those with inside information to bet on national security issues, all while giving both allies and adversaries a possible heads-up.

Our new project Gambling on Democracy is now live! Follow here for tons of new research as we plunge into midterm season: acdatacollective.org/work/gamblin...

🌈 🤍 by Elia Klinkenberg www.instagram.com/p/DbQDyqHjSR...

Has a team ever finished a game over 120 minutes with 0 shots and 0.0 xG? And then maybe even won in penalties?!?

If Argentina somehow pulls this off, it might be one of the most undeserved final wins

Wir können ja im Gegenzug den Super Bowl ausrichten. Zwei Halbzeiten, in der Pause heute journal express, keine Werbung, dann Merte und Kramer, anschließend drei Folgen Wilsberg.

If halftime show, then at least make it a great show, but whatever this is.

Still no yellow cards for Argentina allowed apparently

Purposefully only turning the tv on at game time

Da haben sich wirklich zwei gefunden

Cape Verde is the people’s champ

This is absurd

I think the ref forgot his cards at home

Only in Germany could you find a nice hotel and then it turns out you can’t pay with credit card.

F#% idiots

Well deserved win for Spain, super impressive performance. Would have been even more impressive without all the acting

They sound like absolute mensches. RIP.

Obviously the turbulences were due to the captain’s bad piloting skills and the gays dancing too much on the plane

Vielleicht zur Erinnerung, dass Kai Wegner nur deshalb Regierender Bürgermeister ist, weil Franziska Giffey und die SPD keine Koalition mit Grünen und Linken fortsetzen wollten. Mit kleinbürgerlicher Politik und Koalition wollte man sich neue Wählergruppen erschließen. Das läuft ausgezeichnet…

Post the good news where you find them

🔴 New from ACDC 🔴 Lobbying for alleged criminals and corrupt politicians, and people under sanctions, is increasing in Washington. We dove into FARA filings by lobbyists working for natural persons, and found alarming attempts to undo anti-corruption enforcement by previous administrations.

NEU: Angriff auf das #IFG: Diese Recherchen wären künftig so nicht mehr möglich (u.a. zu Spahns Maskenliste, Amthors Lobbybrief, Merkels Impfpatent-Wende, Lindners Porschegate-SMS, Schröders Lobbyaktivitäten) www.abgeordnetenwatch.de/recherchen/i....

If you believe that the Quayzorg Federation can launch thousands of Omega-Class space freighters loaded with pregnant silicon-based Jubrul worms to crash into fields near Abilene, Kansas, and the wormlets they deliver nanoseconds before impact are US citizens, you don't believe in nationhood at all.

Whatever the final score, what a game by DRC!

IMO, Harry Kane was flying before any contact. Good call

Sanctioned North Korean vessels are now making more foreign port calls than at any point since before the pandemic. Coal produced by slave labor is smuggled abroad, with payments made to secret accounts at Chinese banks. Don't miss this important new report by NKHR & @datadesk.bsky.social.

A letter from mainstream economists to the 🇩🇪 government, with a simple message: Renew and Electrify, to counter the energy crisis. www.bundeswirtschaftsministerium.de/Redaktion/DE... 1/n

Dave was an amazing scholar and an incredibly kind man. When I first came to Duke as a slightly uninformed exchange student I had the idea to write my Diplom thesis on a comparison of Congress and the Bundestag. Dave offered his help and gave me a desk in PIPC. He will be missed.

Immerhin eine #Hertha Mannschaft erreicht seine Ziele: die Hertha Frauen steigen auf. Glückwunsch! #hahohe

At the end of the term I asked my college creative wriing students to submit anonymous thoughts on AI. No real surprises: Mood ranges from resignation to despair, capitulation from embittered erosion of standards to total, feelings of betrayal from deep to furious. 1/

Talk about a return on investment

It's not often that a living man gets such a vivid preview of how he will be mourned.

With election markets proliferating on Polymarket, the upcoming U.S. midterms will test how platforms and the CFTC police insider trading by campaign insiders. We're pleased to have contributed analysis to this @reuters.com article by @dgillison.bsky.social. www.reuters.com/legal/govern...

cc: new danish government #dkpol

We're hiring 2 postdocs at @uio.no on my ERC-Cog project on how authoritarian regimes shape scientific knowledge. 3–4 years, U. of Oslo. Deadline: 10 Sept 2026. Great dept., terms, well funded, bustling & green Scandi capital. Apply! 👉 jobbnorge.no/en/available-jobs/job/303060/postdoctoral-fello

We helped @investigacecz.bsky.social reveal that a Russian war criminal and a far-right politician have a company together in Czechia. Experts say the company's financials look similar to those used in money laundering schemes. www.investigace.cz/valecny-zloc...

Here is Elon Mush bragging about how he "accidentally" canceled all Ebola prevention efforts.

More opportunities for insider trading sold as innovation

ACDC sat down with @60minutes.bsky.social for last night's episode, explaining that military insiders accused of illegal profiteering on Polymarket are not isolated cases but part of a systemic problem. www.cbsnews.com/news/predict...

daaaamn london

Young Falco was great #eurovision

Btw, if you drive an EV, not only do you not need gasoline, you also don’t need oil changes

Great to see insider trading on military event prediction markets getting the primetime treatment from @60minutes.bsky.social. Last month we revealed that 52% of long shot bets on military outcomes on Polymarket are successful, way over the platform average. acdatacollective.org/work/insider...

Very happy to have had @mollyeroberts.bsky.social present this paper on release day at EGB at CBS today. A massive study, super important and interesting work.

Great to hear this @acdatacollective.bsky.social research into insider trading on prediction markets being mentioned by @kevinroose.com and @caseynewton.bsky.social on the Hard Fork podcast from @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/05/08/p...