Sarastro

Sarastro

@financeguy.bsky.social

Institutional money manager 🇬🇧🇨🇭🇫🇷 Markets, energy, history, politics

1.8K followers639 following667 posts

Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

Well worth reading the whole post in full! The gist here is that solar prices will rise but that batteries will help keep elex prices are under control. I don’t agree - I think tech developments plus competition from India in particular will keep solar prices falling.. but do read her views

Jenny Chase@solarchase.bsky.social

Time for 2026 updates to my annual “opinions about solar” thread, now with storage. If you like these, you might like edition 2 of my book, Solar Power Finance Without The Jargon. A 30% discount code WSQ0437 is valid on publisher website til end of Nov 2026. www.worldscientific.com/worldscibook...

worldscientific.comSolar Power Finance Without the Jargon

Sarastro reposted

Vantage Point with Eli Amdur
@vpeli.bsky.social

Replying to @financeguy.bsky.social

That is a bold target for the next ten years. It shows real will to change. I love seeing cities set such clear goals. It helps others see what is possible. It is a great sign for the future of clean energy. Keep watching how they make it happen.

View full thread
Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

“Bangkok has other ideas. Under the government’s latest power market plan, released in draft form earlier this month, renewable energy will increase to 50% from 20% of the grid within the next decade, before rising as high as 89% around 2050.”

Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

“A core reason for the shift? In the words of Energy Minister Akanat Promphan, to reduce reliance on “expensive and volatile spot LNG imports.” “

Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

“Thailand is the most prominent example. On paper, the country is a paragon of the gas market. Its economic boom in the 1980s and 1990s can largely be attributed to the opening up of domestic fields.

Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

“Methane still provides almost two-thirds of electricity, a larger share than you’ll see in gas-fueled giants like the US and Russia. In Shell’s latest outlook, it’s the most exciting prospect in emerging Asia, with LNG imports five times higher in 2040 than they are now.”

Sarastro reposted

Ember
@ember-energy.org

Europe can unlock 25 GW of new renewables by adding them to existing hydropower sites, bypassing grid capacity constraints 🇪🇺🔐 This strategy is called hybridisation – and it’s becoming increasingly important for countries facing gridlock. Elisabeth Cremona explains in our new #VideoBrief 🎥

Sarastro reposted

The Stinkfoot
@thestinkfoot.bsky.social

It's hard not to think that stories about "Made in the USA" green energy leadership would be common if Trump didn't shoot US industry in the foot in his quest to prop up his oil baron buddies.

Sarastro@financeguy.bsky.social

This is a panel from Tandem with 30.4% efficiency compared with the best in the market - from LONGI- at around 25% today www.pv-magazine.com/2026/08/14/t...

pv-magazine.comThe world’s most efficient solar panel goes on sale later this year - pv magazine GlobalSolar manufacturer Tandem PV has secured nearly $1 billion in Letter of Intent (LOI) agreements for its next-generation solar modules. The high-efficiency panels feature a perovskite-silicon 4T (four-...

Sarastro reposted

ironeconomist.bsky.social
@ironeconomist.bsky.social

Future is going to be wild in latitudes that are sunny all year round. This is firm power at around 1/2 of the cost the uk is paying for raw wind generation.

Sarastro@financeguy.bsky.social

This is an auction for 1GW of firm (I.e 24/7/365) renewables plus batteries. At US 5.5 us $ cents /kWh it is the lowest price that has ever been achieved, reflecting the falling costs of battery and solar costs. www.pv-magazine.com/2026/08/10/s...

pv-magazine.comIndia's round-the-clock renewables tender attracts lowest bid of $0.055/kWh - pv magazine GlobalThe Solar Energy Corp. of India (SECI) has discovered a lowest tariff of INR 5.25/kWh in its tender to procure 1 GW of firm and dispatchable renewable energy (FDRE) on a round-the-clock (RTC) basis fr...

Sarastro reposted

ironeconomist.bsky.social
@ironeconomist.bsky.social

Solar price declines not over yet!

Sarastro@financeguy.bsky.social

This is a panel from Tandem with 30.4% efficiency compared with the best in the market - from LONGI- at around 25% today www.pv-magazine.com/2026/08/14/t...

pv-magazine.comThe world’s most efficient solar panel goes on sale later this year - pv magazine GlobalSolar manufacturer Tandem PV has secured nearly $1 billion in Letter of Intent (LOI) agreements for its next-generation solar modules. The high-efficiency panels feature a perovskite-silicon 4T (four-...
Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

The company also noted theoretical peak efficiencies of 45% for two layers of perovskite atop silicon, and 50% for three layers, crushing the 23% efficiency seen in mass production panels today.

Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

“Tandem PV said in an interview with Roth Capital recently that it sees a clear path to adding 2% efficiency per year without any major scientific breakthroughs. This trajectory would put the module at 37% efficiency by 2030.

Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

Even in markets with the highest solar shares globally, fossil generation continues to dominate non-sunny hours, .. [but] ..fully unlocking the next phase of growth needs extending solar into the non-sunny hours. Batteries are doing exactly that ember-energy.org/latest-insig...

ember-energy.orgBatteries have unlocked the era of anytime solar | EmberSolar hit a record 10% of global electricity in the first half 2026, a quarter at midday and near zero at night. Now, battery storage is unlocking the next stage of solar growth in the non-sunny hours...
Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

This is an auction for 1GW of firm (I.e 24/7/365) renewables plus batteries. At US 5.5 us $ cents /kWh it is the lowest price that has ever been achieved, reflecting the falling costs of battery and solar costs. www.pv-magazine.com/2026/08/10/s...

pv-magazine.comIndia's round-the-clock renewables tender attracts lowest bid of $0.055/kWh - pv magazine GlobalThe Solar Energy Corp. of India (SECI) has discovered a lowest tariff of INR 5.25/kWh in its tender to procure 1 GW of firm and dispatchable renewable energy (FDRE) on a round-the-clock (RTC) basis fr...
Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

As of April 2026, the subcontinent has achieved over 50% of its installed electricity capacity from non-fossil sources — reaching this milestone five years ahead of its 2030 Paris Agreement target. gulfnews.com/world/asia/i...

gulfnews.comIndia hits milestone: Renewable energy generation — 5 years ahead of 2030 Paris Agreement targetIndia hits its Paris climate target early with over half of power capacity from renewables, driven by solar, wind, AI data centres and grid upgrades.
Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

These were the questions that Keith Joseph was asking in the late 1970s about the UK. It’s also the question that Argentines were asking after the fall of the military junta in the 1980s and the Singaporeans have been asking themselves about their own role in the aftermath of US tarrifs.

Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

And if this is the likely path taken by countries that import O&G, the decline in the global trade in hydrocarbons will mean less demand and use of dollars. And that in turn means more funding pressure and greater risks to the US’ growth model (at the core of which is the large fiscal deficit). End

Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

My comment: You can see that any such shift will mean diminished global economic importance of GCC hydrocarbons. The question is this: how can the GCC countries adapt to the likely shift while containing the economic and social consequences for their societies ?

Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

What can they do to bring new industries and capital ? What skills do they have to build on? Can they continue to play as big a role in the global economy as they did before the war? And if so how do they reform to achieve that?

Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

The longer the crisis persists the greater these impact become because higher energy costs accumulate across supply chains, the result of which is rising inflation, slowing economic growth, economic pain and social unrest."

Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

This is also why the deeper consequence of the current crisis may not be the short term price spike but the longer term acceleration away from fossil fuels. Countries that depend heavily on imported fuels are reminded with every crisis that their economies remain exposed to geopolitical shocks.”

Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

“The most important consequence of the ongoing crisis in the Gulf will most likely …be ..the economic shock that follows as rising energy prices …Oil and gas sit are the basis of modern industry and when their prices rise the impact quickly moves far beyond the energy sector itself.”

Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

“Chemicals, fertilisers, plastics, transport and manufacturing all depend heavily on hydrocarbons as fuels or feedstocks and as those input costs rise they are gradually passed through the entire system.”

Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

“With the LNG drought pushing up electricity prices and photovoltaics providing a cheaper… alternative, a boom in rooftop solar is far more likely than a return to coal. Don’t look under the ground for the solution to the LNG crisis. The answer is in the skies.” www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

bloomberg.comThe LNG Shock Isn’t Driving Asia Back to CoalIf you’re given to the Sickos Guy view of world events, there’s one obvious way to make the current crisis in the Middle East look just that little bit more disastrous: As well as starving us of energ...
Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

“Compare India today with China at equivalent income levels. In 2012, China had negligible solar, and coal demand showed no signs of slowing. India in 2025 generates 9% of its electricity from solar, uses barely a quarter of the coal per person, and is already approaching its coal generation peak.”

View full thread
Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

“Zoom out to economy-wide electrification where India is keeping pace. Electricity now accounts for nearly 20% of final energy – matching China at equivalent income levels and rivalling advanced economies today.”

Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

“Compare India today with China at equivalent income levels. In 2012, China had negligible solar, and coal demand showed no signs of slowing. India in 2025 generates 9% of its electricity from solar, uses barely a quarter of the coal per person, and is already approaching its coal generation peak.”

Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

“Transport tells a similar story. India’s road oil demand, at 96 litres per capita, is half of China’s at the same stage of development…. Electric vehicles are nearing 5% of car sales, as adoption races up the S-curve. In three-wheelers, India leads the world…”

Sarastro reposted

Atmospheric Sciences
@atmsciences.bsky.social

The current energy crisis might globally speed-up the energy transition in an unprecendented reduction in fossil fuel use. In eg India, SE Asia EV for cars and solar + batteries instead of unsteady petrol, gas en coal imports.

Sarastro@financeguy.bsky.social

“The jump in renewables is expected to reduce India's dependence on coal as a primary source of electricity generation to 49% by 2035-36, from more than 70% currently, according to the National Generation Adequacy Plan released by the Central Electricity Authority.” www.vccircle.com/indiasolar-t...

vccircle.comIndia solar to quadruple, wind to triple over a decadeIndia's solar power capacity is expected to quadruple over the next decade, while wind energy capacity could triple, according to a report published...

Sarastro reposted

Will (Stand On Guard) Hutchings🫐
@thecrazedspruce.bsky.social

This is the REAL reason Trump hates solar power and wind turbines. Solar and wind power mean energy independence. Which means the oil, gas, and coal industries that fund his regime lose a major part of their market. Fuck the environment. Fuck other countries. Only corporate profits matter.

Sarastro@financeguy.bsky.social

“The jump in renewables is expected to reduce India's dependence on coal as a primary source of electricity generation to 49% by 2035-36, from more than 70% currently, according to the National Generation Adequacy Plan released by the Central Electricity Authority.” www.vccircle.com/indiasolar-t...

vccircle.comIndia solar to quadruple, wind to triple over a decadeIndia's solar power capacity is expected to quadruple over the next decade, while wind energy capacity could triple, according to a report published...

Sarastro reposted

Justin Mikulka
@justinmikulka.bsky.social

India was supposed to be a huge new market for LNG (liquefied methane). Much of it from Qatar. We were told it would replace coal. Even before Hormuz sent their LNG prices soaring, India had done the math and is moving to solar, wind and storage. Replacing coal as they go, just not with LNG.

Sarastro@financeguy.bsky.social

“The jump in renewables is expected to reduce India's dependence on coal as a primary source of electricity generation to 49% by 2035-36, from more than 70% currently, according to the National Generation Adequacy Plan released by the Central Electricity Authority.” www.vccircle.com/indiasolar-t...

vccircle.comIndia solar to quadruple, wind to triple over a decadeIndia's solar power capacity is expected to quadruple over the next decade, while wind energy capacity could triple, according to a report published...
Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

“The jump in renewables is expected to reduce India's dependence on coal as a primary source of electricity generation to 49% by 2035-36, from more than 70% currently, according to the National Generation Adequacy Plan released by the Central Electricity Authority.” www.vccircle.com/indiasolar-t...

vccircle.comIndia solar to quadruple, wind to triple over a decadeIndia's solar power capacity is expected to quadruple over the next decade, while wind energy capacity could triple, according to a report published...
Sarastro
@financeguy.bsky.social

“Thanks to .. falling costs, batteries are now seizing the role of last marginal generator… Electricity from a four-hour battery is now cheaper in almost every market that depends on LNG.... Even Saudi Arabia can now provide solar-plus-storage for less than gas.” www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

bloomberg.comEnergy Falling Below $100 Shows the World a Way OutWorried about the way crude oil has stampeded above and then back below $100 a barrel in a matter of hours this week? What if I told you that another crucial component of energy prices has just slumpe...

Sarastro reposted

Nicolas Fulghum
@nicolasfulghum.bsky.social

UK AR7 auction results are out today 🍃⚡ Excellent results with over 8 GW of capacity! The strike price of £91/MWh for England/Wales fixed projects was significantly below the administrative strike price of £113/MWh that so many reported on last year, but was always the upper limit.

Sarastro reposted

Commercial Solar Guy
@commercialsolarguy.com

Large chunk of the world won’t care about oil embargoes very soon

Felix Hamer • electricfelix@electricfelix.eurosky.social

@bhadrarukum.bsky.social: “The EV revolution comes to Nepal. Subsidies, hydroelectricity and a manufacturing powerhouse neighbor are moving the cars into Nepal faster than almost anywhere else.” ⚡️⚡️⚡️ #alwaysbecharging www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/b...