Gernot Wagner

Gernot Wagner

@gwagner.com

Climate economist, Columbia https://gwagner.com It's pronounced "juggernaut" without the "jug"

23.9K followers2.2K following423 posts

Gernot Wagner reposted

Kavanaugh stops in action: ICE tackled a non-verbal kid near his school, left him with injuries requiring surgery, and then left the scene when they realized he wasn't the person they were looking for www.independent.com/2026/10/23/i...

independent.comICE Detains Special Needs Student, U.S. Citizen Near Santa Maria High SchoolRapid Response volunteers witnessed the student being tackled and left with injuries requiring surgery.

Kevin's really underselling things here. This is a 100TB climate impact data set—TB with a T. And it's so accessible it works as a class project¹. Zero excuse not to account for the full set of climate risks, whether as a climate economist PhD or finance MBA ¹ gwagner.com/climate-risk

Kevin Schwarzwald@kschwarzwald.bsky.social

Excited to share a new data descriptor that's finally out for the BCD-ME, our 1400-member ensemble of bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP6 data that samples internal variability, model uncertainty, and reanalysis "ground truth" uncertainty! www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Brazil, Serbia. Hungary earlier. Almost feels like the fascism supercycle isn't a forgone conclusion after all.

Best (climate) news of the day

Phil Lewis@phillewis.bsky.social

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins fourth term, according to electoral court.

I've had coffees at the Peet's across the street from the Eisenhower Executive Office Building with friends in the Obama and Biden administrations who refused to let me pay the $5 for their coffee, lest it seemed like I was trying to bribe them. 🤷

Don Moynihan@donmoyn.bsky.social

My brain cannot process this level of corruption. She was being paid $50 million to engineer a pardon from Trump *while working at the Justice Department* as a "Special Government Employee." And it worked. He got the pardon, and she got the money. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/20/u...

2 feet of rain in 24 hours Monday during the Fossil Age

ownfeed@ownfeed.bsky.social

🇪🇸 Severe flooding has submerged parts of Oliva, in Spain's Valencia region, leaving ~200 people TRAPPED as helicopters carry out emergency rescues. Torrential rainfall from Storm DANA Adam battered the region overnight, with some areas recording 2+ ft of rain in just 24

Gernot Wagner reposted

Martin Wolf on fire: “In less than seven years, the global economy has been subjected to an exceptional sequence of events.” All but one of these shocks, the exception being the pandemic, are man-made — or perhaps “strongman-made.”

Exciting couple days here in Reykjavik talking climate stabilization globalstabilization.org In an entirely unrelated news, I'm changing my name to Gærnóð and taking a few years off to explore geothermal power up close. Beautiful country.

Since this is AI-generated "cartoon" is making the rounds on certain sites, No, EVs don't just shift pollution. EVs are *much* better on CO₂, considering the entire lifecycle.¹ They are also much better on total *material* footprint.²

View full thread

Fun fact: Norway burns none of that gas itself. There's no operating gas power plant, and very few Norwegians have gas furnaces (and oil ones are fully banned!). It's all for export to the rest of us who haven't figured out yet that there's a better, cheaper way to live.

Yes, there is indeed one operating gas plant, which powers the country's largest refinery. Where does the oil go, you ask? Most of it is burned in cars, and yes, there are gasoline-powered vehicles on Norway's roads. Except…virtually none of them were registered this year.

Germany's Bild newspaper celebrates some sort of 'secret' deal to stop the EU international combustion engine phaseout plan, at a time when EV take-up is accelerating everywhere. China, meanwhile: Hold my electrons...

Gernot Wagner reposted

A decade ago I was in Japan talking EV grid integration. The country had all the ingredients: bidirectional charging tech, manufacturers building EVs. They could have led the way. I suppose the Japanese have a word for losing the competitive edge, probably mixing the kanji for jumping & backwards.

LeRaffl@leraffl.bsky.social

September was a record for BEV in Japan, 5.7%, previous high was 4.9% in June. A year ago it was below 2%. Still, I'm not posting a trajectory for Japan yet. Something is moving, but it doesn't look like a real trajectory to me. It's simply not moving enough yet.

Gernot Wagner reposted

I thought this might be an exaggeration, but no! Despite all the talk of technology neutrality, it appears the permitting reform proposal would weaponize claims for federal damages — but in practice, only for fossil fuels.

Erik Schlenker-Goodrich@riogranderift.bsky.social

Insightful legal analysis of a highly problematic component of the Senate permitting deal (Sec. 1402) highly touted by bill proponents as a solution to Trump's War on Renewables but is in fact a major gift to all developers—in particular fossil fuels—that will hobble a future POTUS' climate action.

Gernot Wagner reposted

I don’t think everyone realizes how bad things are for US science: For the fiscal year that just ended, the Trump regime withheld $1.4 billion from the National Science Foundation’s research budget, which is about 1/5 of its primary research budget.

nytimes.comNational Science Foundation Diverted $1.4 Billion in Science Funds Mandated by Congress (Gift Article)The move, affecting about one-fifth of the National Science Foundation’s primary research budget, is the latest sign of how the White House is asserting more control over grants.

Always fascinating to see how climate conversations are framed, and by whom. Everything here is framed as climate v economy, climate v security… The first person mentioning the costs of unmitigated climate change, and how electrification is a massive opportunity? Ali Koç gwagner.com/oksijen-2026

That said, no, fossil fuels aren't 'locked in', 'impossible to replace', etc. If anything, the amazing bit is the speed of the transformation, all but unstoppable at this point.