James David Griffiths

ft.comIs the UK electorate fragmenting? Not so fastThe battle between Labour and the Conservatives for national dominance has given way to multiple local fights to be in the top two

Great to see this out! @jaclarner.bsky.social @danielwincott.bsky.social and I found that national identity responds to referendums. The effect was temporary after the Scottish referendum, but post-Brexit the identity gap between Remain and Leave voters has grown considerably over time. 🧵

British Journal of Political Science@bjpols.bsky.social

NEW - Reshaping Belonging: National Identity Change in Post-Referendum Britain - https://cup.org/4AhXkmW - @jaclarner.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social & @danielwincott.bsky.social #OpenAccess

James David Griffiths reposted

Jack Bailey

@jack-bailey.co.uk

Great article by @martamiori.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social in the FT and on my favourite topic too: fragmentation! www.ft.com/content/28ea...

British Journal of Political Science@bjpols.bsky.social

So what are our implications? Well, identity shapes political preferences, but political outcomes can reshape identity too. Referendums may erode the identities that tie states together, specifically among losers. And, in Britain, the Brexit realignment has extended to Britishness/Englishness.

I'd just like to end the thread by saying thanks to my co-authors, our reviewers for their very helpful feedback, and @bjpols.bsky.social !

British Journal of Political Science@bjpols.bsky.social

Initially, national identity changed similarly after the EU Ref. But over time, the Remain–Leave gap in Britishness grew considerably. This graph shows change from pre-ref (2016) to after the UK left the EU (June 2020). In short, Remainers are now far less British than Leavers.

Remainers and Leavers haven’t simply settled into different national identities after Brexit: they’ve grown further apart. This graph shows the gap over time in England, Scotland and Wales. The changes are concentrated in Britishness and Englishness — the identities most associated with Brexit.

British Journal of Political Science@bjpols.bsky.social

The effects of referendums are concentrated among the losing side. After the 2014 Scot Ref, Britishness fell considerably among Yes voters, but it was relatively unchanged among No voters. However, this effect was temporary, as it had bounced back in the following survey wave.

James David Griffiths reposted

The British Election Study

14 Sept

Delighted to see this paper out in the wild. Diolch yn fawr to the editors @bjpols.bsky.social to our anonymous referees and, especially, to my fantastic co-authors @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and @jaclarner.bsky.social

British Journal of Political Science@bjpols.bsky.social

James David Griffiths reposted

@britishelectionstudy.com

20 Aug

📢 New Data 📢 We are pleased to announce the release of Wave 31 of the British Election Study Internet Panel. You can find out more information, including where to download the data, here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...

britishelectionstudy.com Release note for Wave 31 of the British Election Study Internet Panel - The British Election Study

tinyurl.comHow to lose friends and alienate voters: Labour support since 2024 - The British Election StudyJames David Griffiths, Ed Fieldhouse, and Stuart Perrett

By May 2026, Labour had lost far more voters to the Greens and Lib Dems than to Reform UK, even in pro-Brexit and “marginal” areas. Reform may be competing with Labour for seats, but they are not really competing for the same voters. Short 🧵

The British Election Study@britishelectionstudy.com

📣Blog #2 📣 Even in pro-Brexit and marginal seats, Labour had lost far more support to the Greens and Lib Dems than to Reform UK by May 2026. Read more from @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social, Ed Fieldhouse, and Stuart Perrett here, which showcases new BESIP (W31) data: tinyurl.com/ms3c8z8y

Labour’s losses to the Greens were not concentrated in “safe” seats where they could afford to lose votes. Losses to the Greens and Reform were broadly similar across "safe" and "marginal" constituencies. Losses to the Lib Dems were more common in seats where Labour had performed worse in 2024.

Labour have a new leader, so things might change now. However, making these changes means pulling voters back from left-liberal parties, even in areas that are more socially conservative / pro-Brexit on average!

tinyurl.comHow to lose friends and alienate voters: Labour support since 2024 - The British Election StudyJames David Griffiths, Ed Fieldhouse, and Stuart Perrett

The British Election Study@britishelectionstudy.com

Labour is losing voters to the Greens and Lib Dems at similar rates in pro- and anti-Brexit constituencies. Losses to Reform are higher in pro-Brexit seats, but remain lower than losses to the Greens (and are similar to their losses to the Lib Dems)

James David Griffiths reposted

jrf.org.ukThe economic insecurity trapFinancial insecurity is self-reinforcing. Setbacks mean reduced planning and saving, and increasing unemployment, income loss and housing costs. Financial vulnerability is persistent and widespread an...

10 Aug

This is work by me, Geoffrey Evans, Zack Grant, Justin Robinson. We show The Economic Insecurity Trap. Published today by @jrf-uk.bsky.social. Thanks to @benzaranko.bsky.social for seeing the importance of household experiences of economic insecurity. NEW REPORT: www.jrf.org.uk/public-attit...

Ben Zaranko@benzaranko.bsky.social

People report the highest levels of economic insecurity in mid-life, as they get squeezed by mortgage and childcare costs. New research from @profjanegreen.bsky.social et al shows how insecurity can become a trap: financial setback -> less saving -> more insecure. observer.co.uk/news/busines...

James David Griffiths reposted

blogs.lse.ac.ukBrexit is still shaping British politics | LSE British PoliticsBrexit is no longer front of mind for voters, but the values and identities that they organised around in the run up to the referendum still shape how they vote.

24 June

@britishelectionstudy.com Director Prof Ed Fieldhouse here explaining the Brexit realignment with insights from our new forthcoming book … please check it out! blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

thetimes.comWill Andy Burnham appeal beyond M62 if he becomes PM?The new MP for Makerfield has become an expert at using his regional identity as a political tool. He would be the first ‘proper’ northerner in No 10 for 50 years

24 June

A short blog from Ed and me about the enduring role that Brexit is having on British politics!

LSE British Politics and Policy@lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social

Ten years after the referendum, Brexit is still shaping British politics. By Ed Fieldhouse and @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

James David Griffiths reposted

Tim Oliver

@tjoliver.bsky.social

21 June

I've put together some thoughts, with the help of friends, on Andy Burnham and Northerness, for the Sunday Times. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

blogs.cardiff.ac.ukThe World Cup is coming, but does football influence national identity at home?Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

10 June

The 2024 UK General Election had a bigger effect on national identity in Britain than Euro 2024 Sound surprising? Well, we found this as part of a paper accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social With the World Cup ⚽️ starting tomorrow, this is the perfect time to read more blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

10 June

And if you'd like to read the paper with @jaclarner.bsky.social and @danielwincott.bsky.social, you can read that here! tinyurl.com/mrj96ywu

eventbrite.comThe Senedd Election 2026: What Happened, and Why? - Post Election BriefingEtholiad y Senedd 2026: Beth ddigwyddodd, a Pham? - Dadansoddiad Ôl-Etholiad gan yr Athro Richard Wyn Jones a Dr Jac Larner

2 June

Labour lost in Wales for the first time in a century. If you want to know more about how that happened (among other things about Welsh politics), then this today's event is for you! Some really cool stuff here, from some excellent people, and its all online!

Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru@walesgovernance.bsky.social

Ymunwch â @jaclarner.bsky.social a @richardwynjones.bsky.social ar gyfer ein dadansoddiad ôl-etholiad Senedd Cymru 2026 / Join us for our online event to examine what happened in the 2026 Welsh national election. Dolen cofrestru yma / Registration link here 👇 www.eventbrite.com/e/1990480045...

James David Griffiths reposted

Jac Larner

@jaclarner.bsky.social

26 May

Two weeks on from the Senedd election, here are a few reflections on what actually happened and what it might mean for the next four years. Thread. 🧵 jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...

James David Griffiths reposted

Chris Hanretty

@chanret.bsky.social

15 May

BLOG POST: why I think the measurement of disproportionality in mixed member systems is wrong, and what to do about it www.chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/mixed_...

chrishanretty.co.ukThe measurement of disproportionality in mixed member systems – chris hanrettyI introduce an extension of the Sainte-Laguë index which allows for the calculation of disproportionality in mixed member systems. The index is based on the joint distribution of votes cast across bot...

James David Griffiths reposted

Lawrence McKay

@lawrencemckay.bsky.social

8 May

⏰ CALL FOR PAPERS - EPSS PRE-CONFERENCE WORKSHOP ON PLACE, POLITICS AND EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY ⏰ Submit by Weds 20 May! For all those interested in politics of geographic divides and keen to explore impact potential of their work. More info/submit here: shorturl.at/xS0iS @twanhuijsmans.bsky.social

shorturl.atEPSS pre-conference: “Place, Politics, and Evidence-Based Policy”In this pre-conference workshop we bring together researchers who study the role of place in politics, and we want to focus particularly on how we (can) make impact on policies and public debates with...

blogs.cardiff.ac.ukAll change! The 2026 Senedd ElectionShowcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 New Blog 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 A short piece on how the new Senedd voting system worked! How many votes did it take to win a seat? Was it proportional? Who benefitted? Where did parties win support? And what would it take to win one more seat? If you're interested: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal... 🧵👇

Ultimately this is a new voting system, and it will take voters a while to get used to it. There is some evidence they never really understood the old one, so parties will need to really make it clear to voters. But without reliable info (and with dodgy bar charts), this will be really tricky!

Hopefully of interest to @simonhix.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @robfordmancs.bsky.social @psurridge.bsky.social @timbale.bsky.social @danielwincott.bsky.social (and hopefully others too!)

The smaller parties were only able to win any representation because they had some pockets of concentrated support (Cardiff for Greens, BTN for LD). Plaid support was spread across Wales, same with Reform (not Cardiff); that delivered consistent gains. Thinner Lab/Con vote meant they missed out

This is important for navigating the system. This shows how many votes a party would need to win 1 more seat in every constituency (if nothing else changes). In some areas, within-bloc consolidation would help the bigger parties win another seat. In others, their support is already saturated.

When electoral reform was introduced, the Welsh Govt said that they wanted to change to a "proportional" system. But if we look at the Gallagher index (higher = disproportional), we can see this system wasn't really an improvement on any past Senedd election. Its better than FPTP, but what isnt!

This happens because D'Hondt is biased towards bigger parties. In 2021, Labour got more seats than their vote share due to their dominance in constituency ballots. In 2026, Plaid and Reform got more seats than votes. If you want to know why, @jaclarner.bsky.social has a great piece on this!

@richardwynjones.bsky.social

The Senedd elects 6 members across 16 constituencies via D'Hondt. Largest party wins the first seat. Their votes are then divided by 1+seats won, and this repeats until the 6 are filled. On average, parties needed around 37% to win the 1st seat in a constituency, but only ~12% to win the 6th

James David Griffiths reposted

Richard Wyn Jones

12 May

Llongyfarchiadau mawr i griw @yougov.co.uk ac i griw @itvcymruwales.bsky.social a @walesgovernance.bsky.social sy'n gweithio hefo nhw. Big up the whole YouGov team and the associated ITV/Wales Governance Centre teams! yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

yougov.comYouGov’s was the most accurate seat projection of the 2026 Welsh Senedd electionYouGov correctly predicted a historic shift in Welsh politics, with Labour’s dominance overturned by a Plaid Cymru and Reform UK surge

datawrapper.deLocal elections 2026: aggregate-level correlations | Created with DatawrapperPearson correlation coefficients between aggregate-level census data and the 2026 local election vote share and swing for each party, for the electoral ward or County Electoral District.

9 May

As services to the field go, this is a truly exceptional effort

Lawrence McKay@lawrencemckay.bsky.social

I spent way too long this weekend correlating 81 census variables with local election results, so you don't have to. Enjoy! datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QQQ3D/7/

James David Griffiths reposted

blogs.cardiff.ac.ukUncertainty and Asymmetry: Electoral Understanding in the 2026 Senedd ElectionShowcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

6 May

Btw, please do follow @martamiori.bsky.social for the best graphs in the UK elections business (yes, I am biased…) and for the insight and all-round brilliance.

James David Griffiths reposted

Will 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🏳️‍🌈

@willdv2002.bsky.social

6 May

🚨NEW BLOG🚨 With polls opening in less than 24 hours, I thought it would be good to look over the kind of information environment voters would be operating in in Wales! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

James David Griffiths reposted

Some wider thoughts on this research. A (not so) wee 🧵. The UK experienced a series of high stakes events between 2014 and 2020. Thanks to @britishelectionstudy.com for asking a pre and post referendum NatID question. Without panel data on this q, we could never have known about this change. 1/n

James David Griffiths@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social

🚨 New Research Recently accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social, our paper shows that Brexit led to weaker British 🇬🇧 identities among Remainers! You can read the paper by @jaclarner.bsky.social, me, and @danielwincott.bsky.social here: tinyurl.com/mrj96ywu

James David Griffiths reposted

Jac Larner

@jaclarner.bsky.social

Accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social: After EU Referendum Remain voters became less British🇬🇧 Same gap emerged between Yes and No voters after 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 IndyRef but then disappeared; Brexit's hasn't, because ongoing implementation keeps reinforcing the threat, meaning gap has continued to grow. Full link 👇

James David Griffiths@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social

James David Griffiths reposted

Delighted this paper is coming out in the @bjpols.bsky.social Working with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and @jaclarner.bsky.social is a pleasure and privilege. (Anyone who gets the chance to work with either should grab it with both hands!) Diolch to my coauthors, the BJPS editors and our referees.

James David Griffiths@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social

Comparing Remain and Leave voters, we find that Britishness has declined more among Remainers in the aftermath (2016-2020) of the 2016 EU Ref. As British politics is still polarised around Brexit, our paper shows how political events like referendums can also reshape social identities.

James David Griffiths reposted

youtube.comHow the May elections could overthrow Britain’s two-party system foreverYouTube video by ITV News

1 May

If I had to say what I think is the most important thing happening in British politics right now, I’d say it’s the following phenomenon, explained here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvhI... With huge thanks to @yougov.co.uk @martamiori.bsky.social and @itvnews.bsky.social Please share! Thank you!

James David Griffiths reposted

Marta Miori

@martamiori.bsky.social

2 May

So proud of all our hard work on this! Watch until the end for a data-packed overview of the fragmented context in which these local elections are taking place – and what next week's results might mean for Labour and the Conservatives.

Jane Green@profjanegreen.bsky.social

youtube.comHow the May elections could overthrow Britain’s two-party system foreverYouTube video by ITV News

James David Griffiths reposted

nation.cymruWales and Welsh politics after Labour hegemonyRichard Wyn Jones As readers of Nation.Cymru, you won’t need me to remind you – the result of Thursday’s Senedd election is very much in the balance. The polls suggest that it’s too close to call in t...

2 May

See @richardwynjones.bsky.social for further and better particulars on the coming fall of Welsh Labour (and Labour Wales) nation.cymru/feature/wale...

Daniel Wincott@danielwincott.bsky.social

Interesting article. I have a somewhat different take on Wales. Welsh Labour is showing signs of exhaustion. But the defeat it faces next month is of historic significance for Labour across the UK. Not just since devolution, Labour has won every national election in Wales for a century. 1/4

James David Griffiths reposted

Jac Larner

@jaclarner.bsky.social

2 May

Lots of misunderstanding about Wales’s new electoral system — how it works, what it takes to get elected, and especially around tactical voting. Partly to sort my own thinking, I put together something that tries to make sense of it. Proper write-up coming soon. jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...

James David Griffiths reposted

Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru

@walesgovernance.bsky.social

blogs.cardiff.ac.ukIssues, Accountability, and Labour’s Declining Support in WalesShowcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

Newydd gan @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social am heriau etholiadol y Blaid Lafur yng Nghymru o flaen etholiad #Senedd26 | New from Dr James Griffiths about the Labour Party's electoral challenges ahead of the Welsh Parliament election in May. #Wales #Cymru blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 New Blog 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 The Senedd election is just over a week away, and the polls suggest Labour might lose in Wales for the first time in a over century! So, I've written a quick overview on the blocs structuring Welsh politics, and what people think of Labour: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

Like England, Welsh politics is split into a left-liberal and right-conservative bloc. These blocs also map onto national identity and devolution, with left/Welsh and right/British. This has helped Plaid pull so many voters from Labour, as they're a viable left and Welsh party.