The British Election Study

The British Election Study

@britishelectionstudy.com

Britain’s oldest social survey. We provide non-partisan and independent data and research on elections in Britain.

2.9K followers10 following44 posts

📣Blog #2 📣 Even in pro-Brexit and marginal seats, Labour had lost far more support to the Greens and Lib Dems than to Reform UK by May 2026. Read more from @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social, Ed Fieldhouse, and Stuart Perrett here, which showcases new BESIP (W31) data: tinyurl.com/ms3c8z8y

tinyurl.comHow to lose friends and alienate voters: Labour support since 2024 - The British Election StudyJames David Griffiths, Ed Fieldhouse, and Stuart Perrett

The British Election Study reposted

The British Election Study reposted

Featuring @britishelectionstudy.com data. And analysis by @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and data story supported by me.

Peston@itvpeston.bsky.social

PESTON LIVE - 22/09/2025 👇 Join ITV’s Flagship Politics show Tonight Robert Peston and Pippa Crerar will be joined by: 💼 James Murray MP 🔶 @eddavey.libdems.org.uk 🌏 Aaron David Miller 🌹 @bellribeiroaddy.bsky.social ➡️ Maria Caulfield #Peston youtube.com/live/P-ku4ly...

The British Election Study reposted

Interested in Labour's lost voters since the 2024 UK GE? Want to get a sneak peak at some of the results from wave 30 of the BESIP before it is released? Then we have a new blog for you! 👇👇

The British Election Study@britishelectionstudy.com

🚨New Research 🚨 Ahead of the release of Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel, the team has examined Labour's decline since the 2024 GE. Labour's support has splintered into mostly indecision or left-liberal parties, but they've also lost their few right-wing voters. 🧵⬇️ tinyurl.com/3m62exph

The British Election Study reposted

The Brexit realignment is the essential starting point for understanding where Labour's vote is splintering. The largest group is still 'undecided': good news-ish for Labour, but potential for others too. This shows how large Labour's first year losses are relative to recent comparable governments:

The British Election Study@britishelectionstudy.com

🚨New Research 🚨 Ahead of the release of Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel, the team has examined Labour's decline since the 2024 GE. Labour's support has splintered into mostly indecision or left-liberal parties, but they've also lost their few right-wing voters. 🧵⬇️ tinyurl.com/3m62exph

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Labour's slump is significant. Labour’s vote has splintered between indecision and other left-liberal parties, with its rightward shift yielding little gain. Labour's main competition for their 2024 voters are other left-liberal parties. They have time to win them back, but a tough path to do it

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Labour also faces more direct competition from left-liberal parties for the voters that they've lost to indecision. These Lab -> undecided voters like the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Plaid Cymru a lot more than they like Reform UK and the Conservatives. So, these party blocs matter.

Labour's strategy since the election seems designed to appeal to right-conservative voters. This strategy hasn't worked on its own terms because they have lost the (very few) right-wing voters that they had, while also losing (much) larger numbers of left-wing voters.

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Labour's support has splintered. Over 1 in 5 of their 2024 voters are now undecided. Labour could win these back, but there is a risk. The Conservatives lost a similar amount to indecision after the last 3 elections, and they won most back in 2017 and 2019 (but not 2024).

The British Election Study reposted

This year's Scottish Election Study Annual Lecture, delivered by our outstanding colleague and @britishelectionstudy.com Co-Director @profjanegreen.bsky.social, will take place a week on Monday in Edinburgh! 👩🏼‍🏫 Details and sign up below 🔽 www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/scottish-e...

eventbrite.co.ukScottish Election Study annual lecture 2025We welcome Professor Jane Green to give the annual lecture for the Scottish Election Study

If you're interested in what the local elections mean for the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, or the Greens, then @profjanegreen.bsky.social has a new explainer for you! You can read more about it here: tinyurl.com/2s48bbf4 Or you can watch here: youtu.be/T9pKpbECtKk?...

The British Election Study@britishelectionstudy.com

Are you interested in the local elections? Do you want to know more about what they mean for Reform UK? If so, you should watch these explainers by @profjanegreen.bsky.social Tips for interpreting the locals: tinyurl.com/28jwpbub What it means for Reform: tinyurl.com/2sxrzeva

The British Election Study reposted

Happy to say the third in this series is now on YouTube and @itvx.com. More soon….

The British Election Study@britishelectionstudy.com

Are you interested in the local elections? Do you want to know more about what they mean for Reform UK? If so, you should watch these explainers by @profjanegreen.bsky.social Tips for interpreting the locals: tinyurl.com/28jwpbub What it means for Reform: tinyurl.com/2sxrzeva

The British Election Study reposted

Reform will make big gains on 1 May. But what will that *MEAN*? Will it mean they're building momentum, or will these locals last fought in 2021 be mainly catching up with last year's GE? Will locals and a potential by-election win mean Reform are on track for a big Westminster breakthrough?

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Due to the pandemic, some local authorities could not provide marked registers. As such, those respondents for whom we do not have data are not missing at random. We therefore recommend that users proceed with caution and investigate the data thoroughly before using them.