Javier Martínez-Cantó

Do you work with historical data in Spain? Are you willing to show your municipal-data variables in a map? The new R package mapSpainHist provides shapefiles of localities, judiciary parties and electoral districts between 1900 and 2001. pauvallprat.github.io/mapSpainHist...

"Israel no es una democracia normal", por Shlomo Ben Ami elpais.com/ideas/2026-1...

I built a simulator of seat allocation for the upcoming Spanish general election, based on polls and past results. You can also plug in your own hypotheses and explore different scenarios regarding the configuration of the left-wing lists. ja.cat/simulador29n

Es gibt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Aber es gibt auch Mecklenburg und Vorpommern. Wie wir heute Abend voraussichtlich wieder sehen werden, unterscheiden sich beide Regionen deutlich in ihrem Wahlverhalten. Woher kommen diese Unterschiede? Ein Thread mit Daten aus dem Kaiserreich bis heute. 🧵

Coming to the end of the @ecpr.bsky.social General Conference in Krakow! Four papers presented with my wonderful co-authors — Jean-Baptiste Harguindéguy, @danicetra.bsky.social @javiermcanto.bsky.social, Emma Turiño & Sebastian Ziegler. Amazing discussions, new ideas, and inspiring conversations.

📢 New paper out FirstView @bjpols.bsky.social "Calculation and Conscience: : Motivations for the Substantive Representation of Ethnic Minorities" with Stephnie Zonszein , Apurav Bhatiya & William Dinneen

4 X Postdoctoral Fellowships #ECPRMemberJobs 🎓 Doctoral degree granted between 30 September 2024 and 1 October 2026 🏫 Universität Konstanz ⌛ Monday 12 October 🔗 buff.ly/mRkXCDp #PolSciJobs #PoliSky #AcademicSky

Este artículo explica cómo está diseñado el sistema universitario español y por qué nuestras universidades no pueden competir en el ranking de Shanghái: muchas de las cosas que este ranking premia no existen en España, no por casualidad, sino por diseño. www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2026-...

Hallan en el Archivo Militar de Ávila el que podría ser el primer Estatuto de Autonomía de Asturias dozz.es/_k4q53

Unsere Prognosen für die drei Landtagswahlen im September sind ab sofort online. In Sachsen-Anhalt liegt die AfD in Umfragen bei über 40 Prozent — aber reicht es für eine absolute Mehrheit der Sitze? Die klassische Sonntagsfrage kann diese Frage nicht beantworten.

Did Nazi marches persuade or polarize voters? In 1932 Hamburg, full exposure raised Nazi vote share by ~1 pp (18% of citywide gain), but only by widening divides: support rose in Nazi-leaning areas and fell in opposition areas. Spillovers made up ~half the effect. academic.oup.com/jeea/advance...

🚨New Data🚨 We just released the "Machine-translated ParlSpeech V2" on Harvard Dataverse! It contains 3.5M parliamentary speeches from 7 countries (AT, CZ, DE, DK, ES, NL, SE) translated into English using open-source models. w/ Adam Černý @chrauh.bsky.social @janschwalbach.bsky.social ⬇️

Ukraine Foreign Affairs Minister: "We have detected intensive Russian propaganda campaign across Europe using pictures from Ceuta to sow destabilisation." Far-right from EU (& US!) falls with open eyes for hybrid threats from the weaponisation of migration, even fan the flames. #unity #solidarity

It's not like the old owner of CBS (Paramount), Shari Redstone, was a saint. But she had an incentive to maintain the audience, advertisers, and some semblance of journalistic reputation. As a _common owner_, Ellison has greater incentive to cozy up to the administration even if it kills CBS.

The #UniKonstanz Senate and University Council elected @leuffen.bsky.social, a political scientist and current Vice Rector for Research, Innovation and Impact at the University of Konstanz, to succeed Katharina Holzinger. Details: t1p.de/udjt4

📊 El Barómetro del CEO de hoy: Aliança Catalana ya compite con ERC por la 2ª posición y Junts cae. Sumando a Vox, la derecha radical rozaría el 28% del Parlament. Hace poco, analizamos el fenómeno en el ICPS, con foco en el papel de la inmigración. 📄 www.icps.cat/archivos/Qua...

Ayer clausuramos la ☀️ IPP Summer School '26 ☀️ Tres intensas jornadas de formación, intercambio de ideas y aprendizaje. ¡Gracias a @albertomarquez.bsky.social, Ernesto Ganuza, @giselahg.bsky.social, @chalsito.bsky.social, @javiermcanto.bsky.social, @isabelrodrz.bsky.social y a todos los asistentes!

🚨 New paper! Does social integration change how minorities vote? Classic theories say yes: voting patterns should converge with the majority. But looking at Muslim Turks in Germany, we found the exact opposite. A thread on the integration puzzle 👇

In a new post, I pull data from four different sources --- arXiv, NBER working papers, SSRN, and the AEA --- to look at how much working paper growth and submissions have changed with the growth of AI. paulgp.substack.com/p/the-number...

📢 Quins factors expliquen l'ascens de la dreta radical a Catalunya? Qui la vota? Quins discursos connecten amb una part creixent de la ciutadania? El 10 de juny presentaré a l'ICPS el quadern que he coescrit amb @julitudo.bsky.social Inscripcions: www.icps.cat/fd-inscripci... #Vox #AliançaCatalana

65.2 🫐 Are MP's putting their best foot(print) forward? 👣 @lucasgeese.bsky.social and @chantal-st.bsky.social use rare data to understand the impact carbon footprint of voters has on an MPs #Decarbonisation focus asking whether politician's prioritise #NetZero, or electoral gains🌍️

¿Por qué demoler un monumento brutalista como San Siro para construir un estadio con estética de la NBA? El problema no es el estadio: es que quieren más palcos VIP. . www.ft.com/content/bbf1...

🆕 Is this what you wanted? 🆘 @simonotjes.bsky.social, @sgparliaments.bsky.social's convenor David Willumsen, & Michael Jankowski find that increasingly complex multi-party systems may be leaving the 'winning' voter dissatisfied in the #Coalition's that form 😒

Solo quedan 2 meses para la 2ª edición de nuestra ☀️ IPP Summer School ☀️ Del 6 al 8 de julio en Fregenal de la Sierra, Badajoz. Con Ernesto Ganuza, @giselahg.bsky.social, @chalsito.bsky.social, @javiermcanto.bsky.social e @isabelrodrz.bsky.social Inscripciones abiertas: forms.gle/DkzVam6BpyN5...

New podcast on Hungary's morning after. We discuss what the post-Orbán transition tells us about Europe's far-right landscape, and why professional-class enthusiasm about the death of illiberalism is running ahead of structural reality. twentyfourtwo.substack.com/p/peter-magy...

From our FirstView: When the Church Votes Left: How Progressive Bishops Supported the Workers’ Party in Brazil by GUADALUPE TUÑÓN doi.org/10.1017/S000...

The special issue of @cpsjournal.bsky.social “Back from the Brink: Countering Illiberalism in Liberal Democracies”, co-edited by myself and Isabela Mares, was just published. The issue includes 8 articles, many of which set new research agendas. A🧵w/overview 1/10 journals.sagepub.com/toc/CPS/curr...

El miércoles en el Seminario del @ipp-csic.bsky.social IPP-CSIC, @llschenoni.bsky.social nos presenta "Bringing War Back In" (Cambridge UP, 2024): cómo las guerras del siglo XIX moldearon el Estado en América Latina. ¡Os esperamos! #CienciaPolítica #AméricaLatina

The Blackness scale might be one of my favorite parts of the paper. People often talk about identity as continuous (“She’s Black, but she ain’t Black Black”), so we developed a way to capture that perception. We then estimate how much different traits predict those ratings.

As major news outlets including USA Today Co. and the New York Times restrict the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine from archiving their stories, journalists and advocacy groups are rallying to protect the vast collection of web pages.

​​⏪ 𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝗥𝗙𝗦… 🇪🇸 @javiermcanto.bsky.social & @julitudo.bsky.social examined the similarities, differences, and dynamics of competition between #Vox and #AliançaCatalana in #Catalonia. 🗳️ What factors influence voters to choose between them? 🔓 Article in #openaccess here 👉 doi.org/10.1080/1359...

🆕 Beyond Policy: Identity in Party Competition 🗳️ Christina Zuber, of @ecprsgpp.bsky.social, @drphilipjhowe.bsky.social & Edina Szöcsik rethink how parties win #Elections arguing that success depends not only on policy preferences, but on linking preferences to #GroupIdentities

Building affordable housing ➡️ support for funding housing. Nearby homeowners ⬆️ support; renters ⬇️ support. Both are “the policy adjacent”—secondhand recipients & drivers of policy feedback. Forthcoming @ajpseditor.bsky.social ( doi.org/10.1111/ajps...) w/ A. Magazinnik & @msands.bsky.social 1/9

📚 End-of-week highlight: the Festschrift for @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social, my PhD supervisor, arrived. Delighted to have contributed to this wonderful volume. It brings back many happy Bamberg memories. Huge thanks to @jmfernandes86.bsky.social and @javiermcanto.bsky.social, and congrats to Thomas 🎉

As part of the Infra4NextGen project, funded by @scienceinnovation.ec.europa.eu 🇪🇺, harmonised datasets are now available. These include #data from social surveys that has been harmonised to make them as comparable as possible, even if the question text and response scales differed.

Why are we observing a 'green backlash' when serious efforts to decarbonise have scarcely begun? I'm happy to share my working paper, 'The Political Consequences of Climate Ambition: Evidence from Australia', which analyses how voters respond prospectively to proposed climate policies. Brief 🧵:

The far right in Spain and Portugal didn’t go mainstream alone. The Iberian media system played a key role in their normalization 📺📻📰 2 new publications out now🔥 This marks the closing chapter of my project POLAR, a research journey that began in 2021. A 🧵on how Vox and Chega became mainstream 👇

🧵 #KOMEX2025 Outstanding Course Award goes to @na-wehl.bsky.social 1/ for "A Hands-on Introduction to Longitudinal and Panel Data Analysis" Students knew from session 1 they were in expert hands. @uni-konstanz.de @excinequality.bsky.social @methodsnet.bsky.social

Últim dia per presentar-hi candidatura! 🚨 RA en discurs polític, nacionalisme i immigració comparada 👇

Social scientists keep explaining why consistent time series are indispensable for understanding social change. And now Gallup ends the longest-running pres. approval series. Striking – esp. from the institution that helped institutionalize representative sampling in modern public opinion research

El jueves organizamos desde el @ipp-csic.bsky.social una charla sobre cómo los nuevos desafíos de seguridad y defensa impactarán en nuestros estados del bienestar. ¡Animaos a asistir!

Joan Romero dio clase a casi todas las promociones de Políticas en la @uv.es... menos a la mía, porque estaba de estancia. Siempre me dio rabia no haberle tenido como profesor, pues todos mis compañeros le admiraban. Y este gesto lo confirma una vez más. elpais.com/educacion/20...

Zotero 8 is out in stable: www.zotero.org/blog/zotero-8/ A bunch of new stuff -- the new citation dialog especially is a huge (and long overdue) improvement; massively speeds up anything I do in Word/GDocs with Zotero

If you're hoping to show students evidence to support your tech rules/interactive pedagogical approach, here's what I use. Decidedly not comprehensive, but makes the key points.

For young, entry-level workers, sharing rent with roommates is a rite of passage. But as living costs continue to rise and as homeownership becomes less achievable for young adults, older adults are making up a growing share of live-in landlords. trib.al/4jvD8Ox

New article! The losers of ecological transitions: rural and urban support for green policies in Spain, by Marta Vallvé @martavallve.bsky.social & Eva Anduiza @evaanduiza.bsky.social doi.org/10.1080/0964...