Joshua G. Schraiber

Tariffs between Canada and the US have now been normalized. It’s just a matter of their levels. No one is talking about the USMCA and its renewal anymore. If Canada ends up making a deal that includes tariffs, then Trump’s coercive approach will have won the day.

BREAKING: Judge Reyes has issued a preliminary injunction over the golf course and begins with this: "Rarely, if ever, has the United States Department of Justice urged a federal court not to believe the sitting President." ecf.dcd.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin/show...

I a just old enough to remember what the aftermath of 9/11 was like, and even then a member of the Bush administration saying something this Islamophobic would have been unthinkable. Sure they still thought these things but getting rid of the norms that kept them from saying it has been awful.

So then to rephrase, Wiles had a reasonable belief that he wouldn't get beaten to the punch if he prevented being scooped. Now it seems likely many of the prestige problems are gonna be knocked out as a side effect of O.AI trying to find interesting things to test their models against.

this legitimately might be the best defense I've ever seen an individual play over the course of a playoff series

These guys are just literal racists and that's their number one most important motivation

Gemini thinks this existence proof "represents at least half of the total journey" towards the Yang–Mills existence and mass gap Millennium Problem.

OpenAI has published new math, cs, and physics results. As a sign of the times, their post focuses on how to publish those results more than the results themselves.

LET'S GO VALKYRIES

i don't think anyone should run explicitly on banning online gambling but i do think that a democratic-led government should just quietly take steps to undermine the industry and create an inhospitable regulatory environment

Mutually incompatible regulatory regimes. CA should require something NY prohibits. Make their compliance departments balloon.

Meanwhile, one of the most harmful policy movements in America right now is a property tax revolt that is shifting us away from our most economically efficient tax, all so property owners can have a little more in their pockets next month.

Hey!! It's one thing to go mucking around in fluid dynamics, but this feels personal. A lot of problems I care about have hardness results conditioned on ETH. This will invalidate a lot of results.

Scattered thoughts on how doing math feels these days dynomight.net/math/

OpenAI with more bombshell mathematics. I'm tired boss.

BREAKING: The 9th Circuit rules 2-1 to dismiss DOJ's effort to force California to remove 20,000 purported noncitizens from the voter rolls based on data CA officials view as faulty. Majority: Bennett (Trump) Sanchez (Biden) Minority: Bumatay (Trump) storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

Second chapter now up as a pre-print 🥳. @sebastianschreiber.bsky.social and I set out to understand when and why the order of extinction can lead to different disassembled communities, known as an inverse priority effect (1/6)

From Auckland to Vancouver, inner-ring neighborhoods are reserved for the rich to have low-density housing next to the downtown job center. This is regressive and inefficient, creating sprawl and forcing everyone else into long commutes.

This is so dumb?

candidate quality matters a lot in senate elections and there's a bunch of GOP candidates in deep red areas who have never had to run in a competitive election before, south carolina definitely included

If you ever thought "percent of income spent on housing" was a useful metric of housing affordability, I introduce you to this plot where San Francisco is at the bottom.

Yeah - definitely not arguing that the housing market is fine - just that "% of consumption spent on housing" is a really bad metric for evaluating it, for good or bad.

ie, you have a two earner household paying 30% of their income in rent. Then one of them loses their job (but gets 50% of it in UI payments). Now they are pay 40% of their income (including UI) in rent until the second earner finds a new job.

The reason "percent of income spent on housing" is slightly lower in 2024 than 2010 isn't because housing is more affordable today. It's because in 2010 there were a bunch of households that had two earners in 2007 trying to stay in their house with one earner in 2010.

*BOLSONARO: FEDERAL POLICE REQUESTED I GIVE THEM MY PASSPORT

Now published! doi.org/10.1126/scia...

yeah like i was meeming last night but "turbo-corrupt guy in his 80s that cost control of parliament to the bolsonarists and only won the presidency 52-48" is not a recipe for long-term electoral good happen or short-term good governance

Public offerings that give one person & their heirs perpetual free rein over a company — able to mismanage to the tune of billions at a time, with impunity — need to be significantly restricted, if not regulated from existence.

agree with george [full disclosure: I'm not an equities guy] and i'd add that liabilities are WAY less than i was expecting and their off-balance-sheet arrangement (incl. contracted compute) looks reasonable, this is a barnbuster of a prospectus tbh

This sucks?

If the MSPB decision stands, it would effectively rewrite the whole principal officer / inferior officer framework by adding a huge "unless" to the "inferior officers can be protected from at-will removal" precedent

Why it's important to consult a statistician before data collection, example 17445: If you collect data from 1000 patients, nested in 20 therapists, your effective sample size is much (much!) smaller than you think it is... 😏

There is already a Fed. Cir. case on at-will removal of immigration judges (who are generally regarded as inferior officers) that might head to SCOTUS (oral argument in the Fed. Cir. case is scheduled for Dec. 10) bsky.app/profile/josh...

This, but also, as a liberal I believe in freedom and human rights for all people, all around the world. That translates into rooting interests in elections where freedoms and rights are on the ballot, as they often are.

Maybe 20 years ago but it just feels so odd to hear this idea expressed by a respectable mind now. Isn't it beyond dispute that governance spillovers are now so huge that it's morally indefensible not to "care"? Would anyone say people from other countries should be indifferent to who POTUS is?

interestingly this interest in black voters doesn’t extend to the republican effort to deprive them of federal representation, nor do they seem interested in asking whether republican candidates are burdened by the fact that trump talks like a klansman

pundits are basically bored by the idea that these democratic candidates are not meaningfully behind with black voters and so are trying to conjure a controversy into existence

There is an international, well-connected network of fascists promoting far-right candidates in elections (and coups) across the world. The guy who owns the site Yglesias posted this on is one of their leaders. Be careful of people advocating for their opponents to disarm!

Boston’s chief planner is a true believer in the San Francisco model, in which you make it impossible to profitably build apartments by-right so developers are forced into a politicized discretionary negotiation with the city, which relaxes the rules in exchange for below-market units.

betting markets on elections are extremely obviously biased to right-wingers winning, largely because far more right-wingers bet and a disproportionate number of them are deeply stupid and in denial about who supports them occasionally they figure out that some Dems are safe, etc but other times...

Judge Furman rules that Maureen Comey's firing violated separation of powers. Orders backpay. Govt's arguments violate 2 centuries of SCOTUS rulings & would "unsettle the equilibrium established by this Nation's constitutional system." storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

Yeah, my biggest takeaway from the Anty S-1 is the groundhog didn't see its shadow, so add another 6 quarters on to whenever you think computer hardware will be affordable again.

bubble’s not popping anytime soon if anthropic is making this kind of money off claude, even if capex costs are still absurd

85% inference margin, training costs are well below that. Really remarkable.

The unit economics here are frankly shocking they're so good. This is wildly stronger than I expected tbh.