Julius Garbe

🔔🚨 New Publication Alert! Research has shown that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is a climate tipping element. We found: it’s not one — it’s many. 📄 Paper (open access): www.nature.com/articles/s41... 📢 Press release: www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late... Tread below 🧵👇

Research finds Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier will keep losing ice for at least 150 years. “We haven’t crossed the point of no return,” says professor @mathieu-ice.bsky.social, noting the findings suggest Thwaites wouldn’t trigger the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the best-case scenario

The chance to keep global warming below 1.5°C with no overshoot is gone. But urgent action can still limit the overshoot and bring warming back to 1.5°C by 2100. Current policies, however, put the 🌎 on course for up to 2.8°C this century. New #EmissionsGap Report: https://ow.ly/SNHX50ZZz8l

I want to talk a little bit about this new Science paper led by star student Caroline Needle, Catherine Walker and myself. The idea goes back to this controversial new idea called the marine ice cliff instability. @whoi.edu @umich.edu

The potential for runaway ice sheet retreat due to the Marine Ice Cliff Instability has been debated for years from theoretical and modelling standpoints. At last Caroline Needell and co-authors have brought a large observational dataset to the party. www.newscientist.com/article/2593...

"After years of pushing for global warming to be limited to an absolute top of 1.5C compared to pre-industrial times I am shocked to see how the world is easing into accepting that there is now no way we can achieve that.There is no outcry, just a sense of inevitability." iceblog.org/2026/08/16/f...

A climate nightmare lurks in the Atlantic. Europe is starting to pay attention. Just out — my long read on European governments waking up to the threat of a possible collapse of the AMOC, the ocean currents that keep our continent's climate mild: www.politico.eu/article/clim...

🏔️ Nearly 20% in five years. That's how much #glacier ice #Switzerland has lost since 2021 - with more than 5% disappearing in 2026 alone, according to @matthias-huss.bsky.social (GLAMOS & @vaw-glaciology.bsky.social) and @scnat.ch. Learn more here 👉 scnat.ch/en/id/Y6p3L #ClimateChange

Antarctic winter sea ice falls to third-lowest level on record as scientists warn of ‘now problem’

NEW – ‘Concerning’ low sea ice persists as Antarctic hits third-lowest winter peak ✍️ By @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org 💬 With comments from Lettie Roach, Clare Eayrs and @zacklabe.com Read here ➡️ buff.ly/3Lcz5pj

Two recent studies in PNAS show: 1) Fractures (which are not represented in current ice sheet models) can easily double the ice loss of a region 2) The fastest changing outlet in Antarctica, Pine Island Glacier, has lost almost all traction due to fractures ... www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...

NEW: Climate change is influencing many of the likely drivers behind the devastating rock and ice collapse on the northern Nepalese border last month. 🧵👇(1/6)

Polar Ice Sheets Have Lost 11 Trillion Tons of Ice—and 'Speeding' Glaciers Are Driving the Loss https://gizmodo.com/polar-ice-sheets-have-lost-11-trillion-tons-of-ice-and-speeding-glaciers-are-driving-the-loss-2000811817

Greenland and Antarctica have lost over 11 trillion tonnes of ice since the 1970s, driving global sea level up by more than 3 cm! New paper from the IMBIE Group: www.nature.com/articles/s41... 🧪❄️

Sea Ice Today is back! For nearly two decades, scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, or NSIDC, have helped people understand what is happening to sea ice in the Arctic and around Antarctica. Its monthly science analyses were paused last fall. buff.ly/e20zCU6

Writing last week for @opendemocracy.net about the @unep.org report on overshoot. Our focus always has to be on cutting emissions. There's no way to get around that. www.opendemocracy.net/tech-bros-wi...

@unep.org report on Limiting Overshoot: There are no good outcomes in overshooting and remaining above 1.5°C We need rapid near-term action to limit overshoot magnitude and duration and the damage it will cause for people and the Earth – including the cryosphere www.unep.org/resources/li... ❄️🧪🌊

What can climate models tell us about tipping points and where do uncertainties remain? Join researchers to explore how Earth system modelling can help us understand tipping point risks, including new multi-model results. 🗓 Wed Sept 9 ⏰ 16-17:30 CEST 🔗 futureearth.confetti.events/climate-mode...

OUT NOW! Part 4 of our video series “Core research topics of PIK”: @rahmstorf.bsky.social explains how #ClimateChange is putting the very important Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation #AMOC at risk, and what this could mean for Europe and the world. 👇 youtu.be/sNOSCWxrc3Q

The daily global average sea surface temperature has reached its highest level on record. On 22 August 2026, data from the #CopernicusClimate showed 21.1°C, exceeding the previous record set in March 2024. 🔗Read the press release: climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-d... @ecmwf.int ⬇️

Interesting work out today in @nature.com on the origins of recent increased snowfall in Antarctica, tracing it to the tropical warm pool. It's amazing how connected our earth system is. 1/2 www.nature.com/articles/d41...

New publication in Environmental Research Letters: overshooting 1.5°C then cooling back down does not undo the damage. We map where, for whom, and through what mechanisms temporary overshoot becomes permanent loss. Paper (OA): iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... 1/12

📣Announcement: ICCI are happy to announce that applications for #COP31 Cryosphere Pavilion side events and early career scientist volunteers are now open! More information: iccinet.org/cop31-cryosp... The deadline for applications is Monday, August 31. We hope to see many of you in Antalya!

The average surface temperature is currently about 1.2°C above the 1850-1900 average. Every fraction of a degree of warming matters. Here is why it is so important not to exceed 1.5°C. United Nations explains: https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/degrees-matter

I think we, climate physicists, have overlooked something with respect to climatic instabilities... their effect on weather variability... I believe this will be the main problem for our society and economy for the next three generations to come... at least... www.nature.com/articles/d41...

The formation of Antarctica's vast East Antarctic Ice Sheet may have been driven not only by falling atmospheric carbon dioxide but also by the slow uplift of the continent itself, according to a new study in Science. Learn more: https://scim.ag/4wu7ga4

40.4C: on June 27, 2026, the highest temperature since measurements began in 1893 was recorded at the Potsdam Telegrafenberg where PIK is based. The measurement series serves as an important reference point for assessing climate development in the region. Annual max temperature (2026 as of 9 July).

What'd happen if we managed to limit global warming to around 2°C—but the AMOC still underwent a major weakening? Join us today bit.ly/climtip-webi... with @froeltho.bsky.social on impacts of #AMOC collapse under 2°C scenario! 📅 7 July, 2–3pm CEST #ClimateScience #ClimTip @unibe.ch #TippingPoints

Tipping points in the Earth system are becoming a global challenge: a UN brief, based on PIK research, highlights growing risks to ice sheets, coral reefs and the Amazon. www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...

Absolutely thrilled that the Overshoot Conference is going into its second round. This year at @tsinghuauniversity.bsky.social. Call for abstract out now - hope to welcome many familiar and new faces.

Scientists say the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could collapse with very little additional warming and the four metres of sea level rise that would follow cannot be stopped once it begins share.google/MXR49QHhfmOi...

Antarctica’s west coast missing an area of sea ice the size of France as temperatures peak 20C above average

Many climate models omit the permafrost carbon–climate feedback. In this new paper we show that inlcuding it can increase Earth system tipping risks, especially in overshoot scenarios with peak temperatures below 3°C or peak cumulative emissions of below 2000 PgC. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

The latest update of the Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) report shows 2025 among warmest years on record with 1.39°C above preindustrial. Human-caused global warming is now expected to exceed 1.5°C threshold by around 2030 🌍🌡️ More details here: climatechangetracker.org/climate-chan...

🆕 The Earth is accumulating heat at an accelerating rate. Human-caused warming reached 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels in 2025 & is expected to exceed 1.5°C within ~4 years. PIKs @wflamb.bsky.social led the report’s assessment of global greenhouse gas emissions. www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...

📣 Just out: our new study on the 'cold blob' in the Northern Atlantic. Is that due to ocean currents bringing less heat there, or due to more heat being lost through the sea surface? Our data analysis strongly suggests it's due to #AMOC slowing. 🌊 agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Polar ice – 100Ks years of climate history. Changed in a few human lifetimes? As we heat the planet, ice sheets are pushed to melt irreversibly. But it gets trickier @ricarda-winkelmann.bsky.social talks 3 types of tipping in #Greenland & #Antarctica Join 5 May 2-3PM CEST ‼️ bit.ly/climtip-webi...

57 countries gathered in Santa Marta for the first-ever conference dedicated to transitioning away from fossil fuels, and here are three key takeaways from the closing plenary 🧵

If all glaciers melt, sea level will rise by about 24cm. If the polar ice sheets melt, sea level will rise by more than 65m; almost 300 times more.

NEW: How is climate change impacting the AMOC, the Atlantic currents that help keep Europe warm? @carbonbrief.org’s new in-depth explainer covers: 🌊 How the AMOC is impacted by warming 🌎 What research says about AMOC collapse 🗞️ How the media covers AMOC Read more here: tinyurl.com/5caxbw5a

Happy #EarthDay! 🌍 Today we are launching a white paper on Barriers to Glaciers-Related Financing. As temperatures continue to rise, finance will be needed to respond to the impact of glacier loss on mountain 🗻 and water 🧊 ecosystems. iccinet.org/glacier-fina...

Breaking: New study using observational constraints projects that the Atlantic Ocean circulation #AMOC will weaken ~50% by 2100, even for medium emissions and without Greenland melting. 🌊 More realistic models means stronger weakening - not entirely unexpected. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

🚨 It’s official: 2026 had the lowest annual maximum Arctic sea ice extent on record - essentially tied with last year’s record low. Climate change is reshaping the Arctic, and it's all throughout the year. For more information from @nsidc.bsky.social: nsidc.org/news-analyse...

Arctic sea ice has reached its maximum extent for the year, at 14.29 million square kilometers (5.52 million square miles) on March 15, edging just below last year’s record and statistically tying for the lowest maximum in the 48-year satellite record. @cires.colorado.edu https://bit.ly/4sBUe95

The point of no return: New evidence shows Antarctic melting is already locked in

Since 2016, Antarctic sea ice extent has been declining sharply – now scientists are piecing together how strong winds and warm deep water have played a part in this abrupt transition

The last 11 years have been the hottest years ever recorded. Earth’s energy imbalance has reached its highest than at any time in observed history, with heat reaching deeper into the ocean. This is the Global #StateOfClimate 2025. 📰 Press release: https://bit.ly/4ds4r2V #WorldMetDay