Kevin O’Neill

Kevin O’Neill

@kevingoneill.github.io

Postdoc @ UCL studying causal judgment, counterfactual thinking, and metacognition https://kevingoneill.github.io

1.6K followers1.1K following143 posts

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Kevin O’Neill
@kevingoneill.github.io

happy to announce the official release of my first R package on CRAN! 🎉 building on the Hmetad toolbox by @smfleming.bsky.social, the hmetad package allows users to fit the meta-d' model of confidence ratings using a familiar brms/lme4-style formula syntax

metacoglab.github.iohmetad: an R package for hierarchical Bayesian modeling of confidence ratingsImplementation of Bayesian regressions over the meta-d' model of psychological data from two alternative forced choice tasks with ordinal confidence ratings. For more information, see Maniscalco & Lau...

Kevin O’Neill reposted

Felipe De Brigard
@felipedebrigard.bsky.social

A dream came true. Essentially since I moved to the US, almost 24 years ago, I’ve been dreaming of being interviewed at NPR. That happened last week, on Due South, and the episode was aired today. I was very nervous but I enjoyed the experience! @npr one.npr.org/i/fis-122616...

one.npr.org🔊 Listen Now: Duke professor and 'genius grant' winner Felipe De Brigard on memory, forgiveness and imaginationDue South from WUNC News on NPR One | 50:26

Kevin O’Neill reposted

Lucas Castillo
@lcastillo.bsky.social

🎉 New paper at Behavior Research Methods!!! We present the samplr package for R, which helps use sampling algorithms and cognitive models for human data - show theoretical background + examples. Thanks to @yunxiao-li.bsky.social and @asanborn.bsky.social. Paper link.springer.com/article/10.3...

link.springer.comThe samplr package: A tool for modeling human cognition with sampling algorithms - Behavior Research MethodsMany models of cognition have sampling as a central component. Researchers have used them to explain human performance across a wide range of tasks involving perception, probability reasoning, and cho...

Kevin O’Neill reposted

Experimental Philosophy
@xphilosopher.bsky.social

Causal modeling fans! Tadeg Quilien has an amazing new app that implements a few different theories about how people make causal strength judgments. You specify a model, and it calculates what each theory predicts about people’s judgments

Kevin O’Neill reposted

Tobias Gerstenberg
@tobigerstenberg.bsky.social

I'm very excited to share a new preprint with you all (5 years in the making). "Making good decisions with counterfactuals" with Ricky Ma, Scott Mueller, and Thomas Icard. We investigate how people combine experimental and observational data to make decisions. 📃 osf.io/preprints/ps...

Kevin O’Neill reposted

Joe Barnby
@joebarnby.com

Happy to say this is now published @natcomms.nature.com 🎉 Across 2 task types, 2 countries, and 3 samples we find the corpus callosum is important for metacognitive efficiency. We also show this effect is unlikely to be explained by perceptual or IQ difficulties. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

nature.comCorpus Callosum Dysgenesis is concomitant with reduced metacognitive efficiency and sensitivity across multiple cohorts and modalities - Nature CommunicationsCorpus collosum dysgenesis is an umbrella term for all congenital malformations of the corpus callosum. Here, the authors show that corpus callosum dysgenesis is associated with intact visual percepti...
Joe Barnby@joebarnby.com

What connects difficulties in social cognition, self-awareness, and abstract reasoning in those with Corpus Callosum Dysgenesis (CCD)? Here, across three experiments, we find that the corpus callosum is integral to metacognitive efficiency - www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6...

Kevin O’Neill
@kevingoneill.github.io

as someone who spent a decent chunk of my PhD deriving these model predictions by hand, I’m glad to see this released! congrats @tadegquillien.bsky.social !

tadegquillien.bsky.social@tadegquillien.bsky.social

I wrote an R package that makes it much easier to use computational models of causal judgments. You can also explore the associated interactive app: tadegquillien.shinyapps.io/causaljudgme... cran.r-project.org/web/packages...

cran.r-project.orgcausaljudgment: Computational Models of Causal JudgmentProvides computational implementations of models of causal judgment, including the Counterfactual Effect Size (CES) model of Quillien and Lucas (2023) &lt;<a href="https://doi.org/10.1037%2Frev0000428...

Kevin O’Neill reposted

megan peters 🧠
@meganakpeters.bsky.social

I am able to take on new doctoral students through this amazing initiative! If you are interested please reach out to me by email to discuss.

Steve Fleming@smfleming.bsky.social

Excited to be launching our new PhD program in Minds and Machines at UCL with co-Directors Tali Sharot and @nadinedijkstra.bsky.social To apply, find out more here: www.ucl.ac.uk/brain-scienc... Our launch event is on Nov 10th, with a cracking lineup of speakers: luma.com/cikzcth0

lnkd.inLinkedInThis link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn
Kevin O’Neill
@kevingoneill.github.io

there is a reason that when we started a grad student methods meeting at Duke, one of our first posts was this fantastic tutorial on GitHub Pages by @khoudary.bsky.social it’s easier than you think! dibsmethodsmeetings.github.io/academic-web...

dibsmethodsmeetings.github.ioHow To Build a Free Academic Websitewith Jekyll and GitHub pages!
samuel mehr@mehr.nz

early-career academics, if you don't have a website, make yourself one. yes it's annoying but just do it it can be plain text on a white background, or google sites, or even a free Wix one with ads. nobody cares we just need to be able to look you up, quickly, bc there's like 100 other apps here

Kevin O’Neill reposted

moin syed
@syeducation.bsky.social

Gave a talk in my dept. on the OSF transition. I wrote up a rough script of the session, which could be of interest to others. I synthesize existing resources and provide my own perspectives. Comments and corrections welcome! zenodo.org/records/2306...

Kevin O’Neill reposted

Henrik Singmann
@singmann.bsky.social

Just opened: UBEL PhD studentships (eg at UCL): ubel-dtp.ac.uk/esrc-student... Reach out if you are interested in working with me on computational modelling in decision-making, memory, etc. or quantitative psych. 1st deadline: 30 October Unfortunately, only few places for international students.

ubel-dtp.ac.ukESRC Studentships Main Competition - UBEL DTPESRC Studentships Main Competition The UBEL DTP’s fully funded ESRC studentships cover full payment of tuition fees per year and an annual maintenance stipend. What’s on offer UBEL DTP studentships co...
Kevin O’Neill
@kevingoneill.github.io

big congrats to my mentor @felipedebrigard.bsky.social for being recognized for his incredible work on memory & forgiveness! also props to his student @gabrielafm.bsky.social who is leading this research and to lab manager @kmiceli.bsky.social

NPR@npr.org

The MacArthur Foundation has just announced its latest batch of 20 fellows. Among the recipients of the $800,000 "no-strings-attached" fellowships are researchers who were recognized for their work at the intersection of science and justice. n.pr/4ynOvq0

n.prThis year's MacArthur Fellows include researchers who fuse science and justiceThe MacArthur Foundation has just announced its latest batch of 20 fellows. Among the recipients of the $800,000 "no-strings-attached" fellowships are researchers who were recognized for their work at the intersection of science and justice.

Kevin O’Neill reposted

ari ☀️
@khoudary.bsky.social

how does memory support perceptual decisions made under uncertainty? this question has scaffolded my entire PhD, and I'm so excited to share part of it in this ✨new preprint ✨ w/ @meganakpeters.bsky.social and @aaronbornstein.bsky.social! link: www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6...

biorxiv.orgMemory retrieval explains dynamic effects of expectations on perceptual decisionsExpectations—prior knowledge of environmental statistics—support adaptive behavior by reducing uncertainty during inference. However, the questions of where expectations come from and how that ought t...

Kevin O’Neill reposted

Yongling Lin
@yongling.bsky.social

New preprint✍️😃🥳. An attenuated 'we' alongside a heightened 'they' in borderline personality disorder.

Marco K Wittmann@mkwittmann.bsky.social

New preprint with @yongling.bsky.social and @anrei.bsky.social on asymmetric social structure representation in participants with Borderline personality disorder.

Kevin O’Neill reposted

Wiktoria Kozyra
@wiktoriakozyra.bsky.social

I’m very grateful to @smfleming.bsky.social for his supervision and @kevingoneill.github.io for a great collaboration. We show that the PE bias in confidence judgments can be a Bayes-optimal consequence of inference in high-dimensional spaces, and in CNNs, the bias also increases with dimensionality

Steve Fleming@smfleming.bsky.social

Our paper “Confidence is detection-like in high-dimensional spaces” is now published in Open Mind, led by @wiktoriakozyra.bsky.social and @kevingoneill.github.io direct.mit.edu/opmi/article...

direct.mit.eduConfidence Is Detection-Like in High-Dimensional SpacesAbstract. Confidence estimates are often “detection-like”—driven by positive evidence in favour of a decision. This empirical observation has been interpreted as showing that human metacognition is li...
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Kevin O’Neill
@kevingoneill.github.io

Of course, we agree that people often get things wrong. But that doesn't mean that scientific understanding is an illusion, and we think such extraordinary claims must be supported by evidence

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Kevin O’Neill
@kevingoneill.github.io

2. SSK present causal understanding as shallow and ever incomplete, but causal theory tells us exactly what information can be learned from experimental data! When we discover mechanisms or alternative causes, that doesn't invalidate our previous theories, it supplements them

Kevin O’Neill
@kevingoneill.github.io

3. SSK present people as inherently bad at causal reasoning, but our best models of causal cognition are normative! No matter whether we look at causal selection, causal inference, or diagnostic reasoning, the data suggest that people tend to make the best inferences possible under the circumstances

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Kevin O’Neill
@kevingoneill.github.io

Putting aside the optics of making such a claim as right-wing forces use alarmist metascience to dismantle research institutions, as scientists studying causal cognition, we think that these kinds of arguments should be supported by empirical evidence. We make three counter-arguments:

Kevin O’Neill
@kevingoneill.github.io

1. SSK present science as a theory-free enterprise, but we have an entire field dedicated to causal inference! Notably, their examples dissolve if one specifies a research question, fixes an estimand, and deploys a valid causal identification strategy in line with modern practice

Kevin O’Neill
@kevingoneill.github.io

In their paper, SSK claim that scientists are susceptible not only to misunderstandings, but also to *illusions of understanding* in which we deceive ourselves into thinking we have better causal explanations for phenomena than we do

Kevin O’Neill
@kevingoneill.github.io

After backing up this claim up with a few familiar statistical examples (Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, Stein's paradox, and regression to the mean), SSK map out a partial list of the kinds of illusions that scientists purportedly find themselves under & propose ways to resist these illusions

Kevin O’Neill reposted

joannad-c.bsky.social
@joannad-c.bsky.social

Hiring! 🧠❤️🤔If you’re a philosopher working in ethics/ x-phi/ empirically informed moral philosophy / moral psychology / applied ethics, consider applying for a 2.5 year research postdoc with me in my lab at Oxford. Deadline noon 16th Oct. Details 👉 philjobs.org/job/show/32101 Hit me up with q’s!

Kevin O’Neill reposted

Rochelle Kaper
@rochellekaper.bsky.social

PREPRINT UPDATE🥳👇: 🧠learning under uncertainty & metacognitive processes are not as generalizable as previously thought! both evolve differently depending on structure & stimulus set osf.io/preprints/ps...

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Rochelle Kaper@rochellekaper.bsky.social

super excited to share my preprint with @meganakpeters.bsky.social stimulus familiarity shapes hierarchical structure learning and metacognitive dynamics🚀😊!! osf.io/preprints/ps...

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Kevin O’Neill reposted

Nature Reviews Neuroscience
@natrevneuro.nature.com

Towards an integrative neuroscience of metacognition — a Review by Stephen M. Fleming #neuroscience #neuroskyence www.nature.com/articles/s41...

nature.comTowards an integrative neuroscience of metacognition - Nature Reviews NeuroscienceThe capacity to self-evaluate and control one’s own cognitive performance, known as metacognition, underpins adaptive learning, social behaviours and self-belief. Stephen Fleming outlines our current ...

Kevin O’Neill reposted

Micah G. Allen
@micahgallen.com

How do you model what your heartbeat feels like? Our new Bayesian toolbox makes models of cardiac and respiratory interoception easier to use and interpret, with familiar R formulas and worked tutorials. New publication 🧪: link.springer.com/article/10.3...

link.springer.comHierarchical Bayesian modeling of interoceptive psychophysics - Behavior Research MethodsInteroception, the capacity to sense, perceive, and metacognitively appraise viscerosensory and homeostatic signals, is a growing focus in psychology and psychiatry. Adaptive psychophysical tasks now ...
Kevin O’Neill
@kevingoneill.github.io

delighted to have been able to chip in on this newly published paper by @wiktoriakozyra.bsky.social & @smfleming.bsky.social on how confidence “biases” arise from normative Bayesian models!

Steve Fleming@smfleming.bsky.social

Our paper “Confidence is detection-like in high-dimensional spaces” is now published in Open Mind, led by @wiktoriakozyra.bsky.social and @kevingoneill.github.io direct.mit.edu/opmi/article...

direct.mit.eduConfidence Is Detection-Like in High-Dimensional SpacesAbstract. Confidence estimates are often “detection-like”—driven by positive evidence in favour of a decision. This empirical observation has been interpreted as showing that human metacognition is li...
View full thread
Kevin O’Neill
@kevingoneill.github.io

as a new postdoc, my role was mostly to add some related derivations and additional simulations. and even though all of these paths relied on different frameworks & assumptions, they all converge on the same result and mutually inform each other!

Kevin O’Neill
@kevingoneill.github.io

delighted to have been able to chip in on this newly published paper by @wiktoriakozyra.bsky.social & @smfleming.bsky.social on how confidence “biases” arise from normative Bayesian models!

Steve Fleming@smfleming.bsky.social

Our paper “Confidence is detection-like in high-dimensional spaces” is now published in Open Mind, led by @wiktoriakozyra.bsky.social and @kevingoneill.github.io direct.mit.edu/opmi/article...

direct.mit.eduConfidence Is Detection-Like in High-Dimensional SpacesAbstract. Confidence estimates are often “detection-like”—driven by positive evidence in favour of a decision. This empirical observation has been interpreted as showing that human metacognition is li...
View full thread
Kevin O’Neill
@kevingoneill.github.io

delighted to have been able to chip in on this newly published paper by @wiktoriakozyra.bsky.social & @smfleming.bsky.social on how confidence “biases” arise from normative Bayesian models!

Steve Fleming@smfleming.bsky.social

Our paper “Confidence is detection-like in high-dimensional spaces” is now published in Open Mind, led by @wiktoriakozyra.bsky.social and @kevingoneill.github.io direct.mit.edu/opmi/article...

direct.mit.eduConfidence Is Detection-Like in High-Dimensional SpacesAbstract. Confidence estimates are often “detection-like”—driven by positive evidence in favour of a decision. This empirical observation has been interpreted as showing that human metacognition is li...
Kevin O’Neill
@kevingoneill.github.io

I won’t get into details, but there is a strong take home message: as experimentalists, we can present participants with a task. but how they choose to represent that task and reason over it is up to them!

Kevin O’Neill reposted

Nina Van Rooy
@ninavanrooy.bsky.social

Next week Saturday, I am giving a public lecture on philosophy of animal minds at NC State! Full details: What: lecture by Nina Van Rooy, 'Human-Centered Bias in the Study of Animal Minds' When: Saturday Sept 5th, 11 am - 1 pm Where: Talley Student Union, Room 3285, NC State University, Raleigh

Kevin O’Neill reposted

Nina Van Rooy
@ninavanrooy.bsky.social

The ball is rolling! Really excited that our paper showing no norm effects on causal judgments with continuous causes is now up as a preprint! See the thread by @kevingoneill.github.io in the post below for an overview of what we do in this paper. #psychology #x-phi

Kevin O’Neill@kevingoneill.github.io

new preprint! in my final grad school project led by @kmiceli.bsky.social & @ninavanrooy.bsky.social w/@felipedebrigard.bsky.social, we challenge ~20yrs of causal cognition research by finding a context in which people's causal judgments are completely *unaffected* by norms! osf.io/preprints/ps...

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