Becks Spake

Becks Spake

@spakey.bsky.social

Ass Prof #Ecology interested in forests and deer and other things. Learning about causal inference. 🦌🌳 https://sites.google.com/view/treelabecology/​

120 followers119 following54 posts

Becks Spake reposted

It happened in a seminar yesterday at my institute that somebody bullied a phd student to change an analysis, because two of the predictors were correlated. Multicollinearity is a brain worm, isn't it? It never makes sense to choose control variables based on pre-model correlations.

Becks Spake reposted

Hairy Nuts Disco, Lanzia echinophila. On decaying hairy cases of Sweet Chestnuts It's too dry at the moment, but here are some from this day in 2024. #Fungi #FungiFriends

When I first became a scientist, I realised I needed to get used to feeling stupid. I'm OK with stupid. All good. Now I'm an academic, having to balance teaching, admin and research, the dominant feeling seems to be frazzledness. It's overwhelming at times. Any tips and advice...? #academia

We all had a good sniff of a Fragrant Toothcrust fungus today, Mycoacia nothofagi Opinions differed on what the smell resembled. I was getting pineapple.

Becks Spake reposted

Becks Spake reposted

Does anybody else get a horrid visual when asked: 'Can I pick your brains?'? or 'I'd love to pick your brains on something'. BACK OFF, ZOMBIE! 🧟🧠⚔️

Becks Spake reposted

"...knowing when to stop banging one’s head against those internal cranial walls and ask a stupid question of one who knows more than you. Figuring out how to present a stupid question to someone you do not want to think you stupid is also a necessary component of thinking and learning."

Mel Andrews@bayesianboy.bsky.social

You cannot produce knowledge while outsourcing your thinking to software. thecybernetician.substack.com/p/being-in-t...

Becks Spake reposted

All four books I've co-authored are freely available online for non-commercial use: - Bayesian Workflow at avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor... Links to other three books are in the quoted post 👇 (too many books to fit in one post!)

avehtari.github.ioBayesian Workflow book: Website – Bayesian Workflow bookWebsite for the Bayesian Workflow book by Gelman, Vehtari, McElreath, et al. — case studies, code, and exercises in R and Stan.
Aki Vehtari@avehtari.bsky.social

All three books I've co-authored are freely available online for non-commercial use: - #Bayesian Data Analysis, 3rd ed (aka BDA3) at stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/book/ - #Regression and Other Stories at avehtari.github.io/ROS-Examples/ - Active Statistics at avehtari.github.io/ActiveStatis...

Becks Spake reposted

Combining science and activism.... does it damage public trust? Or could it be the only thing powerful enough to combat the disinformation and passivity that is holding back urgent action on existential threats such the Climate Emergency? More from us in @nature.com today: rdcu.be/fzcmS

Hmmmm... 🦌🦌🦌🐑🐑🐑🌱🌱🌱

Becks Spake@spakey.bsky.social

Today we wrapped hundreds of saplings in sheep wool, to see if they reduce deer herbivory. 🦌🌱 So nice getting out in the field. 🌳 Took f ages 😃

Today we wrapped hundreds of saplings in sheep wool, to see if they reduce deer herbivory. 🦌🌱 So nice getting out in the field. 🌳 Took f ages 😃

Becks Spake reposted

This looks useful. A typical meta-analysis in ecology mixes experiments with observational studies, mixes coefficients with different controls and therefore different causal meanings. I would not normally say "hey the folks in medicine are doing it right, imitate them" but in this case maybe

Alfredo Sánchez-Tójar@asanchez-tojar.bsky.social

Are our ecological conclusions built on shaky foundations? Our latest paper in @methodsinecoevol.bsky.social highlights that Risk of Bias (RoB) assessment, crucial for ensuring the internal validity of research, is almost never used in #systematicreviews in eco & evo 📉 🔗 doi.org/10.1111/2041...

Becks Spake reposted

Gave an interview to @news.sky.com earlier this evening about heatwaves. I said I gave a very similar interview 10 years ago (that time to BBC) about heatwaves. Politicians have failed to act. Societies have failed to adapt. And here we are. We are in dangerous climate change.

Abbey@abbeyarletto.bsky.social

When reality surpasses fiction! Top: fictional forecast for August 2050, broadcast by French TV in 2014 to warn about the consequences of global warming. Bottom: Real French forecast for yesterday, June 22, 2026.

Managed to record this male blackbird mimicking the sound of me calling my pet turkey, Maggie! For weeks I thought a neighbour was making fun of me, until I realised it was this guy! Can you hear it?? 🐦🦃

A nice summary of how different causal inference approaches can be used in habitat fragmentation research in light of necessary data and assumptions

James Bullock@jmbecologist.bsky.social

Indeed. We need to consider the loss & fragmentation process(es) rather than treating it as a statistical game of playing one predictor variable off against another www.cell.com/trends/ecolo...

This is a classic example of why some debates go 'unresolved'. Sometimes, we are simply arguing about different estimands! Similar to Lord's famous 'paradox' (not actually a paradox!) ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/causin...

ideas.repec.orgLord’s Paradox Revisited – (Oh Lord! Kumbaya!)Among the many peculiarities that were dubbed “paradoxes” by well meaning statisticians, the one reported by Frederic M. Lord in 1967 has earned a special status. Although it can be viewed, formally,
Becks Spake@spakey.bsky.social

Thinking causally about the habitat fragmentation debate has led to both clarity and confusion for me! Some studies find negative effects of fragmentation on biodiversity, others positive. Differences in findings occur because studies are typically targeting different estimands #causalinference