Thomas Zeitzoff

16 Feb

Replying to @zeitzoff.bsky.social

Order No Option But Sabotage here: -OUP (30% discount code: ASFLYQ6): global.oup.com/academic/pro... -Bookshop: bookshop.org/p/books/no-o... -Amazon: www.amazon.com/dp/019779684...

These two are related: 1) Trump is very unpopular, and it's been sustained period of some his lowest approval ratings ever ahead of the midterms. 2) Folks are increasingly concerned that Trump will try to use irregular means to thwart the midterms if Dems perform strongly.

Given Trump's past actions (#StopTheSteal, January 6th, pardons, etc.), supporters of US democracy should be very concerned. But I also, don't think people predicting we are definitely headed for martial law/bloodshed/or some other low-probability bad outcome is accurate or helpful.

Politics is contingent and uncertain. Elections reveal information, and so will the midterms. Finally, given Trump's low approval ratings, business elites and other elite actors have done even less than I would have expected to stand up for U.S. democracy. The midterms could change that calculus.

Thomas Zeitzoff reposted

Omar García-Ponce

@garciaponce.bsky.social

Very interesting read that untangles whether people fear and hate AI, the people behind it, or both.

Thomas Zeitzoff@zeitzoff.bsky.social

I wrote a new piece: "Why Do Americans Hate AI?" zeitzoff.substack.com/p/why-do-ame...

U.S. Soccer Men's National Team

I wrote a new piece: "Why Do Americans Hate AI?" zeitzoff.substack.com/p/why-do-ame...

Thomas Zeitzoff reposted

@usmnt.ussoccer.com

CAVAN SULLIVAN THAT IS PREPOSTEROUS! #USMNT x VW

This game is starting to get really CONCACAFY 🇺🇸 🇲🇽 #USMNT

Thomas Zeitzoff reposted

Omar García-Ponce

@garciaponce.bsky.social

1/8 🧵 New paper with @isabellatingley.bsky.social, now out open access in the @bjpols.bsky.social “The Legacy of Mexico’s Drug War on Youth Political Attitudes” Our paper examines how growing up amid criminal violence and militarized security shapes political attitudes later in life.

Got great feedback at @belfercenter.bsky.social yesterday for a new project on how people think about the political future. 2 highlights from the survey data:* 1) Ds, Rs, & independents are all worried about AI 2) Strong support for reining in Big Tech/AI *Forthright/Bovitz, N=1,405, Aug-Sep 2026

19 Sept

This is the season I picked to introduce my son to Tottenham 🫠

16 Sept

Why are Americans more skeptical of AI than those in other countries? I don't think there's a uniquely Americans strain of technophobia. My sense is that many Americans have a rational fear/loathing of the people (CEOs) who will benefit $$ in an AI future.

16 Sept

Also here's a plug for my conditionally accepted @ajpseditor.bsky.social paper with @janzilinsky.bsky.social "Artificial Intelligence, Social Media, and the Politics of Anti-Technology." osf.io/preprints/so...

goodauthority.orgHow Mexico’s cartels rule alongside government institutionsResearch in Michoacán shows how criminal groups survive leadership turnovers, expand into new markets, and retain power.

15 Sept

Fascinating piece from @garciaponce.bsky.social on how Mexican criminal organizations operate and even govern alongside the state. goodauthority.org/news/how-mex...

Thomas Zeitzoff reposted

Matthew Doyle

@mattdoyle.bsky.social

14 Sept

1. This is the platonic ideal of a Union goal. While the results have changed under Richter, the game model has not. 2. Just holy shit, Cavan Sullivan. Running out of superlatives.

11 Sept

L’shana tova. Wishing for a more peaceful new year.

nytimes.comOpinion | Are Our Expectations Too High for Democracy? Adam Przeworski Thinks So. (Gift Article)What is democracy, and is it in crisis?

11 Sept

Where does democracy in the U.S. and around the world currently stand? New from @adamprz.bsky.social, one to the smartest thinkers on the subject. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/11/o...

11 Sept

*of

3 Sept

I loved my PhD methods training at NYU (a lot of causal inference + design). But I do find myself teaching myself and reading a lot up on measurement (it's a fascinating topic).

niehaus.princeton.eduApply for our FellowshipsApply NowThe Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance (NCGG) at Princeton University's School of Public and International Affairs invites applications for postdoctoral research associates from ...

3 Sept

1) I wish there was more of a focus on measurement in poli sci. 2) Also, what I wouldn't give for a Mostly Harmless Econometrics book on measurement.

Thomas Zeitzoff reposted

Noah Zucker

@noahzucker.com

1 Sept

Princeton Niehaus Center (@niehauscenter.bsky.social) now accepting applications for 2027–28 postdoctoral fellowships: niehaus.princeton.edu/fellowships Deadline: Thursday, October 15, 2026

zeitzoff.substack.comIt’s a Mad World: Trump, Rationality, and IR TheoriesTrump doesn’t break our IR theories—he just shows our measurement problems

28 Aug

I tried to make some sense of how we can think about Trump's increasingly chaotic and erratic foreign policy and what it means for those of us who study leader psychology. zeitzoff.substack.com/p/its-a-mad-...

zeitzoff.substack.comIt’s a Mad World: Trump, Rationality, and IR TheoriesTrump doesn’t break our IR theories—he just shows our measurement problems

28 Aug

I’ve got a new post. Trump's erratic foreign policy chaos doesn't break our models of leader behavior. It just shows us where we need better measurement.* zeitzoff.substack.com/p/its-a-mad-...

28 Aug

*Side note, I had to edit the piece after the Lake Ontario/Lake America announcement yesterday 🙄

scientificamerican.comHow solar became the cheapest form of energy in the worldHere are four reasons solar energy has seen a meteoric rise in recent years

27 Aug

I’ll take some positive news www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-...

Thomas Zeitzoff reposted

Brendan Nyhan

@brendannyhan.bsky.social

26 Aug

Many folks are replying to lament the loss of the paper. I agree we shouldn't give up on it! Google Docs version history + Pangram + submissions of multiple iterations of the paper + giving an exam on the paper is quite effective - see this syllabus, for example bpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/sites.dartmo...

Brendan Nyhan@brendannyhan.bsky.social

Friends don't let friends give assignments that are AI-cheatable

21 Aug

Interested in the public’s skepticism towards new technology like AI? @janzilinsky.bsky.social and I’ve got a paper for you. We built a scale and found that worries about social media, AI, and modernity form a coherent anti-tech disposition. Conditionally accepted at @ajpseditor.bsky.social

Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈@josephpolitano.bsky.social

In possibly the fastest shift in public opinion I've ever seen, local data center approval went from -5 to -65 in less than a year heatmap.news/daily/data-c...

21 Aug

See osf.io/preprints/so...

19 Aug

People are conflating the success of left-leaning, progressive candidates with a broader leftward shift among Democratic voters. My read is that it’s driven more by deep anger among Democratic voters who think party leaders haven’t used the power they have to fight Trump II aggressively enough.

cnn.comDNC Chair Ken Martin’s supporters dismiss concerns about the party’s debt and his leadership | CNN PoliticsA growing number of Democrats are calling for Ken Martin to step down as head of the Democratic National Committee, arguing that the party’s debt and Martin’s diminished profile after the bungled rele...

19 Aug

And then there's: 1) Incompetent party leadership (www.cnn.com/2026/07/28/p...) 2) Sketchy fundraising practices— see this excellent piece by @adambonica.bsky.social => data4democracy.substack.com/p/with-fear-...

data4democracy.substack.comWith Fear and FavorInstitutions don’t have courage. They have incentives.

19 Aug

So it’s not surprising that some candidates closely associated with the party establishment are struggling with Democratic voters.

Thomas Zeitzoff reposted

Adam Bonica

@adambonica.bsky.social

17 Aug

I wrote this because most journalists facing this pressure can’t. The paper we count on to check authoritarianism spiked an investigation into the Democratic Party because the party’s lawyers threatened to sue. Holding authoritarians accountable starts with holding your own side accountable.

theatlantic.comThe Human-Origin Story Is Being Radically RevisedNew secrets from our past have been coming out in droves.

8 Aug

Very cool article by @rossandersen.bsky.social on the new archaeological and DNA evidence changing our understanding of human history. www.theatlantic.com/science/2026...

Thomas Zeitzoff reposted

Adam Bonica

@adambonica.bsky.social

3 Aug

Replying to @adambonica.bsky.social

His #1 near-term recommendation: convene committee leaders and use the DNC's authority to draft a fundraising code of conduct for candidates and committees. Not in the DNC release.

Thomas Zeitzoff reposted

Guy Grossman

@guygrossman.bsky.social

2 Aug

For a congressman to violently assault his ex-spouse is not a private/family matter.

Eric Umansky@ericumansky.bsky.social

GOP Rep. Jim Jordan on alleged spouse and child abuser Max Miller: “This is a family matter. I know Max is a good man. I hope he wins re-election.” www.nytimes.com/2026/08/02/u...

Thomas Zeitzoff reposted

Dan Silverman

@dmsilverman.bsky.social

23 July

Somehow missed this one. Seems like a pretty relevant and well-done paper!

Thomas Zeitzoff@zeitzoff.bsky.social

Excited to share my new paper w/ @janzilinsky.bsky.social that's conditionally accepted at @ajpseditor.bsky.social 🎉 Is there a general "anti-technology" orientation among Americans? We built a scale and found that worries about social media, AI, and modernity do form a coherent disposition.

Thomas Zeitzoff reposted

Omar García-Ponce

@garciaponce.bsky.social

20 July

This may have been one of the most statistically one-sided World Cup finals in history, particularly in terms of shot production: Spain outshot Argentina 22–3, while Argentina failed to register a single shot on target over 120 minutes.

Thomas Zeitzoff reposted

Leah Stokes

@leahstokes.bsky.social

electricnotes.newsYes, Democrats Should Talk About Climate.Talking about Climate Change is a Political Winner.

Democrats have stopped talking about climate. Strategists say that's smart—but they're wrong. Making climate a top priority wins votes, and barely 1 in 10 voters will vote against climate action. Read all about it in my newsletter, "Notes from the Electric Era." electricnotes.news/p/yes-democr...

bbc.comMore than 800 Canadian wildfires burning as air quality alerts extend to USThe air quality in large parts of Michigan, Minneapolis and Minnesota is deemed "hazardous" by authorities.

800+ wildfires in Canada. Wildfire smoke is choking large parts of the U.S. and Canada right now. In my book I ask whether the increasing negative effects of climate change like this will be a tipping point that mobilizes people. www.bbc.com/news/article...

The uncomfortable answer: is probably not. One of the most regular findings from climate change + poli sci research is that floods, wildfires, and hurricanes don’t seem to durably change climate attitudes.

zeitzoff.substack.comLet Us Cook? Sweltering Heatwaves, No Climate Policy—Because the Public Doesn’t Care? Not So Fast.Thanks for reading Peace & Violence!

But at the same time, political elites, underestimate how worried the public is about climate change and its appetite for politicians to do something about the problem. More here: zeitzoff.substack.com/p/let-us-coo...