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me when I can't do math

Oh I didn’t say unscathed. I mean there should still be an Nvidia (and Microsoft, and Google) after the dust settles. OpenAI and Anthropic, I’m not so sure.

' I think 'bankruptcy' is still a thing. The principals walk away with billions. "Here's a bag you can puke in." for the rest... 😐

Ooh, please tell me this is terrible news for SK Hynix.

My hope is that it bursts at a time where the fallout will happen under Trump/Republicans and not the next Dem administration like 2008

A bubble, quoth he, as if bubbles were novel—I have been a bubble these threescore years, heaved a-high to be hurled down below, and still I sup on sack while wiser men starve sober. When the painted queen falls, let her fall; I shall be found in the tavern, owing everyone and be

Artificial intelligence is as genuine as an Artificial apple pie, cardboard pastry filled with chunks extracted from breast implant silicon smothered in SAE30 engine oil.

funny how that works

The empire always divides

On the one hand, GPUs might go down. On the other, this'll implode the economy harder than oceangate.

From your lips to God's ears

LLMs have SOME utility at least...

People who have deskilled themselves by using AI are easier to control

I feel like the midterm election will be needle that pops the bubble.

I for one would be very happy to see those warehouses of RAM and other components suddenly hit the market at bargain bin prices.

Tell us more about a schism in society!

These data centers are financial poison even if you bought them cheap. The returns are awful, the debt is toxic, the ongoing opex is nasty because of the cost of cooling and the power demands, and 30% gross margins requires near-perfect conditions and constant revenue for 5+ years.

Wonder what happens to the pension funds levered up to the nuts on loans for data centers that are mostly commits for 2027 chip runs. Maybe Nvidia has a generous return policy…

What are the two (or more) sides of that schism, do you think?

"Too Big to Succeed" is a good future book title

Except you need to pay for the power and the data center

it's not much of a silver lining but there is one!

Can we all crowd fund a Smiling Man billboard in Silicon Valley when it happens?

Ed in the coming months/year: www.youtube.com/watch?v=0k5a...

You're soaking in it.

but I was told doing ai in space would save profitability…because reasons…

‘being right is going to be many layers of horrible’. ibid Sarah Kendzior

We are going to go through some things 😩

And i thought Inconvenient Truth was about climate change

November 8th 2028. Maybe next year.

I've alaays thought Microsoft's strategy with OpenAI was to wait for the bubble to burst and then collect the scraps based on how intertwined OpenAI is with Azure.

Yo I'll take those chips Superscaling is back baybee

When the ROI math stops mathing and the hype train runs out of cash, the hangover is going to be brutal.

I mean, those of us psychically willing AI to collapse doesn’t seem like a disaster to us.

smaller domain specific models running on on prem hardware

Ed is preparing his "I called it" balloons and confetti like old school Steven Colbert.

Here's how it will likely go down. The companies who can make use if it will realize, and are actually realizing now, that they don't need the lastest and greatest models, and see that it's actually cheaper and more secure to run their own AI hardware in-house.

god, i wish, but we will not be so lucky.

Yeah, it's more correct to say 'artificial cognition' at this point, as there's no intelligence in there at all. It's just more automation, like we have done with machine vision, natural language recognition & synthesis, inverse kinetics, etc. Actual AI is still many decades/centuries off at least.

nfts and the metaverse were not bubbles in the same way. they did not have the same massive over investment that ai and dot com does and did. but i think your conclusion is probably correct. all i’m really saying is that “i can’t wait for the bubble to pop so that AI goes away” is overly optimistic.

yeah, it will probably by like that’s insofar as the tech will no longer be used by the general public. instead it will be used by the ultra wealthy, the MIC, corporations, and governments to further exploit the working class.

It would be entertaining if I didn't know that somehow they'll "socialize" the losses. We're the ones who are going to get the bill. 🤬

Ed, it’s okay. It won’t matter when AI loses trillions, collapses our economy, and puts all humanity out of work because it’s going to kill us all first. There’s nothing to worry about because we’ll all be dead!

I just saw an article where an update bricked AI enabled refrigerators (in S. Korea?), so you're both right!

Ai companies are just like me buying warhammer minis before i'm finished painting the ones i already have.

Absolutely These nuts are reaching wider parts of society and nobody trusts them. In fact, they’re openly mocked for sounding insane. The AI industry is being laughed at and everybody knows it’ll crash and hurt everyone.

Not to be dramatic but all this is genuinely why midterms might be the most important election of our lives. They realize their only hope of profit is "nationalizing" AI and trump leaving power means someone actually using any of the institutional guardrails they have lept over.

As someone who so desperately wants to upgrade their PC, don't give me hope Ed...