Aeillien

Aeillien

@aeillien.bsky.social

History and Literature Geek. Teacher. Husband. Father. Hispanic. Feminist. Socialist. General threat to society.

481 followers1.7K following893 posts

Remember that the general history of the United States and its military efforts from Vietnam onward is tactical and operational dominance combined with strategic incompetence. We win every "battle" and always hold or occupy the country we seek to hold or occupy. But then lose the war.

Because battles won don't mean anything if they do not occur towards a clear, achievable, strategic objective. Most of our wars from Vietnam onward have had either vague strategic goals or fantastical ones.

Aeillien reposted

Another fantasy that leaders engage in is the fantasy that their opponents lack agency: we can just do stuff to them and they will not respond. That one *always* goes badly.

News Eye@newseye.bsky.social

BREAKING: Iran’s Parliament approves the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Decision needs ratified by Iran’s Security Council. It would trap 20% of the world’s oil supply and send a catastrophic shock through the global economy.

Aeillien reposted

The people who talk about expanding the tent are never, ever actually expanding the tent. They want to pick up the tent and move it rightwards. If the tent were getting bigger, letting in new people would not require pushing other people out, which the metaphorical expansion somehow always does.

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Even if we grant that: those who insist we should remain Over There refuse to engage with the fact that we will not be heard. The app has been designed, on purpose, to silence some voices and raise others. It is not even close to a neutral space. You are asking people to go scream in a void.

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Aeillien reposted

Replying to @gilduran.com

Unfortunately, in US journalism it is considered neutral to spread a lie, but it is considered "biased" to call out a lie. So, there is a structural asymmetry that rewards colorful lies with virality.

On further thought, it really worth pointing out that the *entire* post WW2 international order as regards trade, economic policy, social policy, the always of war, you name it, was built by the greatest generation and it is this order which is being destroyed as we speak by Trump and Hegseth.

Aeillien@aeillien.bsky.social

It's worse. In a fundamental sense the Greatest Generation created, expanded and enforced the laws of warfare as a *result* of WW2.

It's really on brand that Trump and his cronies love to extol the *idea* of the Greatest Generation while spitting on the world that generation struggled to create. It sure is...something.

Aeillien reposted

People’s ideas about the world are formed mostly from their social environment. Their social environment includes their parasocial environment: media and social media. The parasocial share of our social environment has been growing for many decades.

Aeillien reposted

look, I’ve been operating on the assumption that we cannot reach Bush 2 numbers because the media environment makes the floor much higher than it was back then (and Fox won’t throw him overboard the same way) but, uh, we aren’t through year one and…

Poll Tracker 📊@polltracker.bsky.social

Gallup poll | 11/3-11/25 President Trump approval Disapprove 60% (+6) Approve 36% (-5) news.gallup.com/poll/699221/...

Fundamentally, the Trump/Miller definition of citizenship requires not just mass deportation of immigrants but mass de naturalization of those judged as "un-American" (Black, Latino, Asian) followed by their subsequent deportation. And we already know they want to redefine birthright citizenship.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Trump: “I will permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries … denaturalize migrants who undermine domestic tranquility, and deport any Foreign National who is a public charge, security risk, or non-compatible with Western Civilization.“

Fundamentally, its been clear what we've faced since at least the "Mass Deportation Now" signs at the RNC, but over time it becomes ever more explicit: this is a political movement that seeks to use the power of the state to ethnically cleanse this country until only whites remain.

Aeillien reposted

I think more than anything else AI feels like a miracle to people with questionable literacy because it can read and write for you, and a lot of us who are highly literate underestimate how many of our society's leaders, esp in business, struggle with literacy.

It's pretty much mandatory at work that I appear to be using it, so I've doe a few functional things with it, and it's a moderate time-saver if used right. But nowhere near worth it's stock value, energy cost. Then I realize there's a lot of people who simply can't write coherent paragraphs.

Aeillien reposted

Good morning to Brazilian reporter Manuela Borges, who’s been waiting eleven years for this petty moment. ❤️ 🇧🇷

I love pretty much all pie and don't understand why we have to make all these bad bitches fight each other. My personal fav is strawberry rhubarb, but if you don't like a certain kind of pie, I think it's likely you have only had poor examples of that pie.

Aeillien reposted

I think the fact that we're basically looking at Bush 08 bubbling up before year one is even wrapped is what makes this period fundamentally different to the cycle we've seen with Bush and Trump I

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The thing about laws is that they are nothing more & nothing less than agreements we decide to abide by. As Locke observed people in general will stick by laws even under fairly bad circumstances. But past a certain point, if the law is perceived as being broken beyond repair, we can just change it.

Aeillien reposted

The problem with this article is they asked too many lawyers and not enough historians. As a historian, I'd say the legality of Trump's immunity and pardons depends on how he leaves office. At 40 over 55 approval? He's immune. At 25 over 65? He's probably not immune & self-pardons aren't legal.

Francis Wilkinson @franciswilkinson.bsky.social

John Roberts has secured his place in history alongside Al Capone and Bernard Madoff. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/o...

Aeillien reposted

So we are currently at multiple threatened military operations, attorneys being rejected for improper appointments, suburbanites chasing the armed agents of the state cursing their names, a two vote margin in the house, and consumer sentiment worse than 2008/2009. It’s been less than a year.

Aeillien reposted

very important for the government of the USA to explain the difference between pedophilia and ephebophilia while visa and Mastercard must defend Western morality by blocking anyone from buying games with illustrated school uniforms in them

I mean, Trump's policies have taken an economy that was the envy of the world & had record job numbers at low inflation and in less than a year we're now at "limping along, with lots of warning signs" Supposing that it stays stable at the current "limping along" is the *less* sensible position, imo.

Aeillien@aeillien.bsky.social

It's not so much that I want economist to say the economy is in shambles as wanting them to use a system analysis to take the "deteriorating but pretty slowly so far" to its logical conclusion. Don't know *when* but its clear that the current trend is accelerating and is not a stable equilibrium.

Aeillien reposted

Bellingcat’s contact email has always been a magnet for people with fairly unusual views; paranoid delusions, sprawling conspiracies, the works. But recently, the pattern has shifted, we’re seeing more and more emails clearly written with ChatGPT.

Aeillien reposted

one thing i think is true is that republicans assumed that democrats would not respond in kind and that the forceful pushback spooked them (a lesson to learn here, perhaps)

Greg Sargent@gregsargent.bsky.social

Trump's corrupt scheme to rig 2026 is suddenly falling apart: *Court strikes down Texas GOP gerrymander *Indiana GOP lacks votes to redraw map *Big Dem win in Virginia could give Ds more seats On the pod, DLCC head Heather Williams is informative on what's next: newrepublic.com/article/2033...

Aeillien reposted

I've had a few 'what do you do' convs recently, and everyone on hearing I'm an author comes out with "so how do you come up with ideas?", just like every book or movie about a writer has them staring numbly into space because they don't have an idea for the next book. And look, that is Not It.

Aeillien reposted

If the president can just raise taxes and spend money without Congressional approval, the constitution is null and void.

Unusual Whales@unusualwhales.bsky.social

BREAKING: Deputy White House Chief of Staff James Blair said the administration is eyeing ways to give millions of Americans $2,000 dividend checks from tariff revenue without congressional approval, per Bloomberg.

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it’s amazing how these idiot men can’t seem to figure out that if a woman 20+ years younger than you wants to fuck you, there is almost certainly something *extremely* weird about her

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Would love to see someone from the moderate, Majority Dem faction really address and wrestle with the political effects of what Labour has been up to.

YouGov@yougov.co.uk

Latest YouGov government approval ratings, 15-17 November 2025 Approve: 11% (-2 from 8-10 Nov) Disapprove: 69% (-1) Net: -58 (-1) yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...

Aeillien reposted

You know how in the old road runner cartoons the Coyote would run over a cliff, keep running, then look down, everything would pause for a second, then he would fall? We are at roughly pause for a second o clock right now.

If I had to guess, I would estimate we are roughly... here:

eigerjoch@eigerjoch.bsky.social

on.ft.com/4rdV3of US tech stocks sell off as traders fret over ‘frothy’ AI valuations The other week I looked at the allocation of an American index tracker I’ve money in, saw the % for Invidia thought nope nope nope and moved some of it to Europe. Not enough mind, I fear.

Aeillien reposted

i think that a lot of people (of all ideological varieties) conflate "face genuine economic pressures personally", "face structural trends that favor certain forms of conservatism", and "have personal issues that funnel them into extreme politics" into a single issue and that's unhelpful

Eric Levitz@ericlevitz.bsky.social

No, the neo-Nazism of young Republican staffers is not driven by economic anxiety www.vox.com/politics/468...

Aeillien reposted

In 2010, Keith Olbermann smeared the Assange rape accusers, went on a week-long tear of blocking everyone and quitting Twitter when criticized, then accused me of "glorifying smoking" because I had a cigarette in my PFP, but it would have made more sense if I'd known he was living with a teenager.

Keith Olbermann@olbermann.bsky.social

Btw about this from Lizza's reply: Olivia and I lived together for 4+ years (4 b'days, 4 Xmases, 4 anniversaries). That's like $1250 of jewelry per celebration. And her apartment was a writing studio. And I made an f-ton then. What was I supposed to do? Get her a lot of Gift Certificates from Kmart?

Aeillien reposted

A critic (readers generally, but I'm thinking here of people who set out to analyze or otherwise discuss a work) can only see through the lens of their own context. That lens makes everything look like it fits (or doesn't) whatever pattern the critic is most familiar with.