Aurélien Goutsmedt

Our paper "One Sentence at a Time: A Quantitative History of Rationality in Economic Thought" with @thomasdelcey.bsky.social and Alexandre Truc is out in EJHET, as part of a special issue on methods for the history of economic thought 🧵 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Food for thought! "News shocks and inflation: theory and evidence from large oil discoveries" by Bohou Cai, Liugang Sheng, and Hongyan Zhao. "We study how news shocks affect inflation in open economies..." www.bis.org/publications...

La taxe européenne sur les petits colis a l'air d'avoir un effet

Contre l'oligarchie internationale Le Manifeste de Paris À paraître en novembre au Seuil

Dur réveil à Nice, avec la sensation de vivre dans un futur dystopique où l'extrême droite est au pouvoir. Hier, une milice de 100 fascistes, armés de barres de fer et de couteaux, a descendu un grand axe, discuté tranquillement avec la police avant d'aller frapper des manifestants pacifistes.

Un « attentat terroriste raciste » commis « sur la base d’une idéologie raciste ». J'aurais aimé entendre le président de la République prononcer le mot d'extrême droite pour contextualiser politiquement ce racisme.

#AI -related stocks have fallen much more sharply than the broader market as investors reconsider the financing costs of building data centers, buying chips and supplying the electricity needed to run them, chart #JPMorganAM

🎓🍾 Docteur ! Vendredi dernier, j’ai soutenu ma thèse de doctorat en sciences économiques intitulée « Vers une transition juste ? Transition écologique, qualité de l’emploi et inégalités sur le marché du travail en France »

Economic types with long memories: I’m trying to find a paper (or Fed policymaker speech?) which I have memories of reading in the mid-2010s and which argued that 2007-2009 should be seen as an energy price shock (price shock - recession - losses - financial crisis, being the sequence). Any ideas?

DB: Vessel attacks in the Middle East rose in October to their highest level since the Iran conflict began. @soberlook $USO $BNO thedailyshot.com/sub...

I downloaded the latest dataset of #WSocial 's verified records. I found: - records showing the legal name, nationality and approx. date of birth of 2457 users - 8 birthdays in the name field (their real birthdays, probably) - the two minors are still there But it's all public by design, remember?

On @Financialtimes.com I ask how AI is affecting inflation. For now, energy prices are a bigger deal. But an AI-driven relative price shock could still complicate life for central bankers, esp if it's happening in expectation of a productivity boom that never arrives... www.ft.com/content/68b0...

We have a new paper on the fiscal consequences of climate change: global temperature shocks substantially reduce economic output and tax revenue, and raise government debt. Thread 👇

Investors increasingly worry that the companies at the heart of the AI boom will be unable to generate the cashflows necessary to service their vast debts. These concerns have spilled over from credit markets to cause a wobble in the stock market, too

Le congrès triennal de l'Association belge francophone de science politique (19-21 mai 2027) se rapproche ! Près de 50 sections thématiques ont été sélectionnées. L'appel à communications pour ces sections thématiques est désormais ouvert, jusqu'au 15 janvier 2027. absp.be/actualites/a...

Next week →

Dans la continuité de ces observations thanks to @gallicagram.bsky.social, j'ai voulu regarder si "les extrêmes se rejoignent" en termes de fréquence. Hé bien pas du tout. C'est plutôt les "ultra" qui se rejoignent en fait (on est ici dans les pages de @lemonde.fr uniquement)

Another appalling pot-kettle piece from NYTimes. No mention of the fact that the US faces higher interest rates than France, precisely because its structural deficit is even larger. They even have a graph of bond rates in which France and Germany are shown and US is omitted.

Fréquence des mots « keynésien » et « keynesianisme » dans Le Monde (à gauche) et sur Persée (à droite) (@gallicagram.bsky.social)

In the introduction, Roberto Ventresca and I set out the stakes of this large question: many different schools of thought are said to have influenced or still influence the euro! www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Our Forum in @conteurohistory.bsky.social investigating economic thought and the making of the euro is finally online, and in Open Access: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Introducing #Assemblage 🧡 Add @semble.so cards and collections and @margin.at annotations to an infinite canvas, draw connections between them to create context, expand your understanding and see the bigger picture! → assemblage.renderg.host #ATscience 🧪 #ATmosphere 🌀 #ATproto 🪿 #ATberlin 🧶

This study finds that inflation triggered by conflict in the Middle East disproportionately affects low-income households in Germany. The lowest decile of the income distribution faces purchasing-power losses of up to 2.87% of disposable income vs. 0.65% for highest income decile

"Les notions de désescalade & de stricte nécessité de l’usage de la force ont disparu du vocabulaire gouvernemental" "La France compte le plus grand nombre de mutilés et de tués par la police en «maintien de l’ordre» de toute l’Europe" A lire dans @letemps.ch www.letemps.ch/opinions/la-...

Ceux d’entre nous pas nés en 1958 ont désormais le douteux privilège de vivre, aux premières loges, une crise de régime. Ce qui survient quand un pays n’est plus démocratiquement gouverné, et qu’un pouvoir dépourvu de légitimité perd toute capacité à répondre aux problèmes qu’il a lui même suscité

Le mouvement lycéen et étudiant signe le crépuscule du macronisme: les jeunes veulent se former et accéder aux études, et un pouvoir élitiste leur répond en réduisant de 20% le budget par étudiant entre 2017 et 2026 et en gérant la pénurie avec un algorithme opaque (Parcoursup)

UPDATE It's not just Total Energies, five western oil majors have windfall profits in the first half of 2026 alone of around $32 billion. That income is missing in the balance sheets of European workers and non-oil businesses. See my substack: andrewwatt963563.substack.com/p/government...

Investors dump #datacentre bonds as AI borrowers face ‘Darwin moment’ - Prices of bonds issued to fund prominent data centres where Meta, Nvidia, Oracle and others will become tenants have fallen well below par in recent weeks www.ft.com/content/678b... via @FT #datacentres #ClimateEmergency

Football players www.ft.com/content/122e...

As someone who reads transcripts of climate change conferences for a living, and finds their dramatic tension riveting, I am so incredibly psyched that one of them has been turned into a movie 💫 (litterally: it's all verbatim. which is wild & brilliant) www.filmlinc.org/nyff2026/fil...

A typical "bubble" mechanism: "circular financing where customers and suppliers finance each other. A recent report from the Bank for International Settlements found that “a significant portion of financing and commercial relationships in AI are self-referencing" giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Commentaires is now verified on AT Store. This self hostable commenting system brings Mastodon and Bluesky conversations directly to your website, letting visitors join discussions using their existing accounts. @souverain.ovh

As for many here, Perry Merhling was hugely influential and helpful in my early academic years when I was trying to make sense of shadow banking/modern finance. I watched his YSI lectures countless times. The King of the balance sheet is dead,vive la balance sheet.

Parution aujourd'hui de notre "Repères" sur l'évaluation. Une coupe transversale des façons d'analyser les effets de l'action publique, travaillée pour être accessible à un large public. Car évaluer, c'est bien plus que des indicateurs chiffrés 📊 - c'est enquêter pour mieux décider ensemble.

The #ECB is increasingly focused on preventing higher energy costs from feeding into broader inflation dynamics, even as policy rates move further into restrictive territory, chart #MorganStanley

Faster inflation + slower nominal wage growth = falling average hourly earnings in real terms. Average hourly earnings, adjusted for inflation, fell 0.5 percent in September. Inflation has outpaced wage growth on a year-over-year basis for six consecutive months.

Charts! Inflation picked back up in September, on both a headline and a core basis. Prices are up 3.7 percent over the past year. Core prices have risen at an annual rate of 3.4 percent over the past three months. #NumbersDay

I'll add his reach also tells you just how sui generis he was. You could see references to him or his ideas in mainstream economics papers or heterodox ones, in theoretical academic work or technical papers from central bankers or market strategists. His ideas (and charm) were infectuous to all.

... I was then trying to catch "worldviews", and I was impressed. Yesterday, as I was quoting him, Perry Mehrling passed, unexpectedly. The loss. So please take any of these books, or the New Lombard Street, and let yourself carry by his unique voice and writing style

1/n Yesterday, I was writing on the Nobel, microfoundations, mentioning other paths to stabilization taken. I mentioned Perry Mehrling's wonderful book on Kindleberger. I remember when the editor sent me the first chapter and asked "should we publish it?" My answer was: is it even a question...

Hello les collègues 19émistes en particulier Que connaissez-vous comme BONS docus historiques sur le XIXe qu'on peut trouver en ligne? (Je suis familier de tous ceux d'arte en gros mais j'imagine qu'il y a plein de choses qui m'échappent) Merci !

Très belle initiative de l'Association française de science économique : mise en place d'un webinaire sur l'IA dans la recherche et l'enseignement de l'économie. Première séance ici www.youtube.com/watch?v=TucF...

J'ai écrit une synthèse (assez fouillée) sur l'histoire du marché de la dette publique US oikopedia.miraheze.org/wiki/Dette_p...

Time for the annual tale of the IMF-central bank field meetings. where the IMF ask about the [eg] UK forecast, and the [eg] UK forecast team ask about the IMF world forecast [which is being constructed using all the other country forecasts as an input] so they can do their UK forecast which

'utter gibberish'... it's like being back at the BoE and writing for MPC clients again.

Okay frick it, I'm announcing the project I've been working on. It's called Reams, a markdown editor that syncs over atproto spaces. It works offline, doesn't require a login, and has a bunch of features packed in. Try it at reams.ink, install the PWA for the best experience!

My blog post that explains the latest #WSocial controversy is up: 🔗: blog.elenarossini.com/public-by-de... Disclaimer for W folks: this work is entirely self-funded, with childcare help courtesy of my family so I could write the first full draft on Sunday 💁‍♀️ #WIdentity #WSocialFacts #privacy

NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social PIECE: I give my take on the new "Nobel" prize winners. What it means, why they won and why I hope that this award for a "counterrevolution" is a death rattle. www.crisesnotes.com/on-the-ersat...

A truly terrific and extremely timely piece by Nathan. “Hall and Woodford’s work (but especially Woodford’s work) is better understood as a ritualistic and symbolic blessing to sanctify the outlook and approach central banks already adopted en-mas before Woodford’s magnum opus was even published.”