Dylan Primakoff

Dylan Primakoff

@dylanmp.bsky.social

Deputy Director for Eurasia Programs at the National Endowment for Democracy. Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council Eurasia Center. Posting mostly about Russia.

908 followers640 following220 posts

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Dylan Primakoff
@dylanmp.bsky.social

(For what it's worth, my own take on a potential diplomatic solution remains that Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 because it was willing to use military force to exert control over Ukraine's foreign policy orientation, and... 7/

Dylan Primakoff
@dylanmp.bsky.social

...until military/economic/political conditions convince Putin that military domination of Ukraine is no longer a viable option, Russia won't agree to any deal giving Ukraine real security guarantees (i.e. ones Russia can't veto as in the model discussed in Istanbul).) 8/8

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Dylan Primakoff
@dylanmp.bsky.social

The significance of the discussions is real. Warnig is very close to Putin, and the Americans were in contact with the NSC. That doesn't, however, mean that any of the positions floated were ones either government (to say nothing of Ukraine) would have necessarily committed to. 5/

Dylan Primakoff
@dylanmp.bsky.social

The value of this reporting is the texture it adds to an understanding of one aspect of the diplomatic process, rather than concrete info about a potential diplomatic outcome. And it does a great job of that, with lots of details about colorful characters and a dramatic but murky process! 6/

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Dylan Primakoff
@dylanmp.bsky.social

Those who believe a diplomatic solution has always been available are treating this as further confirmation that they were right. Fervent online Ukraine supporters are accusing the FT of spreading Russian propaganda. Both of these reactions miss the point. 3/

Dylan Primakoff
@dylanmp.bsky.social

The entire purpose of backchannel negotiations like this is for both sides to test out positions without making any actual commitments. Either side can either embrace or disavow their "negotiators" whenever it suits them, depending on the results of the discussions. 4/

Dylan Primakoff
@dylanmp.bsky.social

A lot of people seem to think that this reporting represents a claim that the deal developed in these backchannel negotiations was a real diplomatic solution that could have resolved the conflict, and reacting to this supposed claim according to their preexisting assumptions. 2/

Dylan Primakoff
@dylanmp.bsky.social

An important anniversary today – it's 20 years since the murder of Anna Politkovskaya in her Moscow apartment building. As this piece describes, she was one of the first to recognize the essence of the Putin regime and try to show it to the world. www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...

lemonde.frAnna Politkovskaya: The journalist killed 20 years ago for understanding Putin before anyone elseMurdered in 2006 in the stairwell of her apartment building in Moscow, the renowned Russian reporter relentlessly warned, with remarkable clarity, about the true nature of Vladimir Putin. Her reportin...
Dylan Primakoff
@dylanmp.bsky.social

Solid response from Ilya Yashin to Nigel Gould-Davies on how Europe should approach pro-democracy Russians: www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/08/07/r...

themoscowtimes.comRussia’s Exiled Opposition Wants What’s Best for Europe. It’s a Better Future For Russia, Too. - The Moscow TimesOpinion | A recent article in The Spectator by the British former diplomat Nigel Gould-Davies raises an important question about the relationship between the European Union and Russia’s democratic opp...

Dylan Primakoff reposted

Meduza in English
@meduza.io

Nina Litvinova, granddaughter of Stalin's foreign affairs commissar, spent more than half a century helping political prisoners — carrying samizdat to those in Soviet internal exile, then writing to the inmates of Putin's prisons. In May, at 80, she took her own life. meduza.io/en/feature/2...

meduza.io‘I tried to help them, but my strength gave out’. For half a century, Nina Litvinova stood with Soviet and then Russian political prisoners. In May, at 80, she took her own life. — MeduzaOn May 12, the dissident and human rights activist Nina Litvinova died by suicide in Moscow. From the late 1960s on, she devoted her whole life to helping political prisoners, first in the Soviet…

Dylan Primakoff reposted

The Kyiv Independent
@kyivindependent.com

⚡️Update: At least 6 injured in Kyiv as Russia strikes residential buildings, historic Pechersk Lavra. At least six people have been injured in Kyiv amid a large-scale Russian attack, as a fire continues to burn at the historic Dormition Cathedral in the Pechersk Lavra.

kyivindependent.comKyiv's historic Pechersk Lavra burns as Russian rains ballistic missiles on capital"We ask for prayers for the salvation of the shrine from destruction. Another Russian crime against humanity, against history, against Christianity," Metropolitan Epiphanies, head of the Orthodox Chur...

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Ilya Lozovsky
@ichbinilya.bsky.social

NEW: We’ve just published an investigation that shows how Russia recruits teenagers on occupied Ukrainian territory to become pro-Moscow infowarriors. The Young Correspondents program, ostensibly a journalism club, is part of Yunarmia, a militarized mass youth organization. 👇

Dylan Primakoff reposted

Meduza in English
@meduza.io

Russian soldiers who refuse orders to return to duty after being injured are discovering that the military treats such desertion without much sympathy. meduza.io/en/feature/2...

meduza.ioTo force deserters back to war, Russia’s military is torturing their families — MeduzaThe Russian army has swelled since Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Months into the war, Russia conducted a “partial mobilization” for several chaotic…
Dylan Primakoff
@dylanmp.bsky.social

This Responsible Statecraft article claiming "Western media is larging ignoring" Ukraine's recruitment struggles and harsh conscription tactics cites articles on that very topic from the BBC, RFERL, the LA Times, and the Telegraph. responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-recr...

responsiblestatecraft.orgUkraine's 'Busification' — forced conscription — is tip of the icebergWestern media is largely ignoring that Kyiv has to rip young men off the streets amid recruitment shortages and desertions

Dylan Primakoff reposted

Steve Rosenberg
@bbcstever.bsky.social

“All we were doing was bringing the music we like to a mass audience. We hope we’ll be home soon. It’s what we’re dreaming of most,” Stoptime vocalist Diana Loginova tells me. She & the other members of the band are still in jail after their street concerts. My report from St Petersburg.

bbc.co.ukHow teenager gave street concert and was caught up in Russia's repressive pastDiana Loginova sang songs critical of the Kremlin. The 18-year-old and her bandmate are now in court.
Dylan Primakoff
@dylanmp.bsky.social

A deeply unconvincing piece arguing that since the small amount of available leverage the US has applied to Russia as of this week is – on its own – unlikely to change Russia's outlook on the war, the US should therefore agree to agree to Russia's current negotiating positions.

The Guardian@theguardian.com

New sanctions and weapons will not stop Russia. It’s time for Ukraine’s allies to change their flawed strategy | Christopher S Chivvis

theguardian.comNew sanctions and weapons will not stop Russia. It’s time for Ukraine’s allies to change their flawed strategy | Christopher S ChivvisA negotiated settlement would be unfair and frustrating. But after nearly four years of fighting, it may be the best option, says Christopher S Chivvis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Dylan Primakoff
@dylanmp.bsky.social

(Of course, the decision to cede Ukrainian territory would belong to the Ukrainian government, but the piece simply ignores the question of why such a decision would be in Ukraine's interest – or what steps the US should take to force Ukraine to accept an outcome against its own interest.)

Dylan Primakoff
@dylanmp.bsky.social

A deeply unconvincing piece arguing that since the small amount of available leverage the US has applied to Russia as of this week is – on its own – unlikely to change Russia's outlook on the war, the US should therefore agree to agree to Russia's current negotiating positions.

The Guardian@theguardian.com

New sanctions and weapons will not stop Russia. It’s time for Ukraine’s allies to change their flawed strategy | Christopher S Chivvis

theguardian.comNew sanctions and weapons will not stop Russia. It’s time for Ukraine’s allies to change their flawed strategy | Christopher S ChivvisA negotiated settlement would be unfair and frustrating. But after nearly four years of fighting, it may be the best option, says Christopher S Chivvis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Dylan Primakoff
@dylanmp.bsky.social

Chivvis dances around the point a bit, but the actual policy argument seems to be that ceding to Russia parts of Ukrainian territory that the Russian military has failed to take to by force is a better alternative than applying further economic or military pressure to Russia.

Dylan Primakoff reposted

Scott Rose
@rprose.bsky.social

On Oct. 7, 2006, Novaya Gazeta reporter Anna Politkovskaya was assassinated in her apartment building in Moscow. 19 years ago today. At least one of the men who planned her murder, a former police officer, has since been pardoned for going to kill again in Ukraine. Also today, Putin turns 73.

Dylan Primakoff
@dylanmp.bsky.social

It's depressing how much bad info on Navalny is still floating around out there. Navalny publicly supported gay marriage as of 2017; the Putin regime put the "international LGBT movement" on its list of terrorist and extremist organizations and jails people for wearing rainbow earrings.

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Mediazona English
@en.zona.media

In January, activist Konstantin Kotov escaped house arrest and fled Russia: he was accused of financing an "extremist organisation" because of a $30 donation to Navalny’s ACF. Today, a Moscow court sentenced him to 5 years in absentia. Read his interview: en.zona.media/article/2025...

en.zona.media“There’s no sense in playing roulette with the court.” Interview with Konstantin Kotov who escaped house arrest after being accused of donating $30 to Navalny’s ACFMoscow activist Konstantin Kotov’s first criminal case was in 2019: he was sentenced to four years in prison for participating in “unsanctioned protests.” After public outcry it wa...

Dylan Primakoff reposted

Brian Taylor
@bdtaylor-su.bsky.social

"There is currently no sign Putin will scale back his expansive ambitions unless he concludes that continuing to pursue them may call into question the security of his regime." Sharp and succinct as always from @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social

iiss.orgRussia–Ukraine: peace looks more remote than everRussia has not scaled back its ambitions and America will not pressure it to do so. Territorial issues and security guarantees are currently second-order issues. The war remains intractable.
Dylan Primakoff
@dylanmp.bsky.social

No movement from the March 2022 position.

The Kyiv Independent@kyivindependent.com

⚡️ Security guarantees for Ukraine can't be discussed without Russia's participation, Lavrov claims. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that "seriously discussing security issues without Russia is a road to nowhere."

kyivindependent.comSecurity guarantees for Ukraine can't be discussed without Russia's participation, Lavrov claimsRussian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that "seriously discussing security issues without Russia is a road to nowhere."