Eric Crampton

Folks on all sides are being more meltybrained than usual around Hipkins' policy change on interest rate deductions for residential property businesses.

A defensible (but I'd argue against) case for disallowing interest deductions on residential property was that it might serve as a very rough, very second-best policy in the absence of a capital gains tax. So the switch from barring deductions to taxing gains is internally consistent & coherent.

I had this over on Twitter a couple of days ago as a Twitter article. It's a bit long. So I'll have to split it across a few posts. Bottom line: taken literally, NZ First would break a pile of international agreements by doing this, and it's a terrible idea.

Oh, relatedly. It seems that a lot of people think that NZ is out of step with Western-country norms by not having a citizenship requirement for NZ Super. If we added one, we'd be the weirdos. It's rare to condition it on citizenship. Just go look. Australia. Canada. UK. Sweden. Ireland....

I had this over on Twitter a couple of days ago as a Twitter article. It's a bit long. So I'll have to split it across a few posts. Bottom line: taken literally, NZ First would break a pile of international agreements by doing this, and it's a terrible idea.

Terminating reciprocal agreements to enforce a citizens-only rule will likely have reciprocal effects. Maybe the policy shouldn't be taken literally. It will be taken seriously. NZ should be competing to get the world's best. Telling them that NZ hates foreigners isn't a great way of doing that.

I had this over on Twitter a couple of days ago as a Twitter article. It's a bit long. So I'll have to split it across a few posts. Bottom line: taken literally, NZ First would break a pile of international agreements by doing this, and it's a terrible idea.

Some of them might decide to remain abroad, if they've built up enough savings that the pension there doesn't matter much. But a lot of them will come home. The ones most dependent on a government pension for their retirement.

I had this over on Twitter a couple of days ago as a Twitter article. It's a bit long. So I'll have to split it across a few posts. Bottom line: taken literally, NZ First would break a pile of international agreements by doing this, and it's a terrible idea.

Treasury shows that the foreign-born proportionately contribute far more tax than the NZ born. They will have planned their retirement savings based on expectations that while NZ Super might change a bit at the edges, there won't be a rugpull. Winston pulls the rug.

I had this over on Twitter a couple of days ago as a Twitter article. It's a bit long. So I'll have to split it across a few posts. Bottom line: taken literally, NZ First would break a pile of international agreements by doing this, and it's a terrible idea.

The SSAs for Canada and Australia contain savings provisions. They continue to protect people already receiving benefits as well as those who'd lodged qualifying claims before termination. NZ First also didn't put an asterisk on its promise around this part of the agreements.

I had this over on Twitter a couple of days ago as a Twitter article. It's a bit long. So I'll have to split it across a few posts. Bottom line: taken literally, NZ First would break a pile of international agreements by doing this, and it's a terrible idea.

If NZ First goes ahead with its proposed policy, Australians and Canadians living in NZ as residents and permanent residents would no longer be eligible for NZ Super. This would be inconsistent with the equal-treatment provisions of the SSAs.

I had this over on Twitter a couple of days ago as a Twitter article. It's a bit long. So I'll have to split it across a few posts. Bottom line: taken literally, NZ First would break a pile of international agreements by doing this, and it's a terrible idea.

Someone born in 1976 would need to be ordinarily resident in NZ (or a country with an SSA agreement) for 19 years, including 5 years from the age of 50. You're not allowed to include time from multiple SSA countries - it has to be from a single one.

I had this over on Twitter a couple of days ago as a Twitter article. It's a bit long. So I'll have to split it across a few posts. Bottom line: taken literally, NZ First would break a pile of international agreements by doing this, and it's a terrible idea.

'Ordinarily resident' means normally living in NZ, or normally living in a country with which NZ has a Social Security Agreement.

I had this over on Twitter a couple of days ago as a Twitter article. It's a bit long. So I'll have to split it across a few posts. Bottom line: taken literally, NZ First would break a pile of international agreements by doing this, and it's a terrible idea.

New Zealand First promises that NZ Superannuation will only be for NZ Citizens. His supporters may not be familiar with the current eligibility rules, the set of international agreements that the proposed policies would break, and the near-certain consequences for Kiwis living abroad.

Parliament last week re-upped part of the cross-party consensus favouring more housing. National put up amendments to the Planning Bill strengthening competitive urban land markets; Labour asked them to take it even further. Excellent. My piece in today's Post: