Giuseppe Carteny

Giuseppe Carteny

@giucarny.bsky.social

Post-Doc @ Saarland University #polsci #politicalbehaviour #politicalattitudes #partypolitics #manifesto #rstats 🌐 https://giuseppecarteny.com/

287 followers303 following64 posts

Giuseppe Carteny reposted

Delighted that our SI at @pspolisci.bsky.social is now out. House forecasts unanimously predict Democrat victory while those for Senate point to a tight contest. Further info in below thread + see here for the SI introduction: doi.org/10.1017/S104... @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org @apsa.bsky.social

doi.orgIntroduction to Forecasting the 2026 US Midterm Elections Special Issue at PS: Political Science & Politics | PS: Political Science & Politics | Cambridge CoreIntroduction to Forecasting the 2026 US Midterm Elections Special Issue at PS: Political Science & Politics
Debra Leiter@debraleiter.bsky.social

Who will win the Midterms? Thrilled to announce the new @pspolisci.bsky.social Special Issue "Forecasting the 2026 US Midterms", edited by @johnkenny.bsky.social & me. 17 new articles analyzing expectations for the House, Senate, and Governors' races this November. www.cambridge.org/gb/universit...

Giuseppe Carteny reposted

Narrative seeding is a thing, which means it's going to be a incredibly stupid winter here in DE when gas gets scarce and this stinkflower blooms.

Anton Gerashchenko@antongerashchenko.bsky.social

US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent: "We are going through an energy shock right now due to both the war in Ukraine, because Ukraine has decided that they want to blow up Russian energy assets and refine products, so that is creating upward price pressure

📢 New publication out! Mapping party competition on gender-related issues in Europe There has been growing discussion about the politicization of gender in European politics. We wanted to take a broad, systematic look at it. 👇🧵

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📢 New publication out! Mapping party competition on gender-related issues in Europe There has been growing discussion about the politicization of gender in European politics. We wanted to take a broad, systematic look at it. 👇🧵

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#UNTWIST brought me closer to gender studies and deeper into computational methods, shaping where I want to take my research next. It also allowed me to meet some amazing researchers and genuinely wonderful people.

📢 New publication out! Mapping party competition on gender-related issues in Europe There has been growing discussion about the politicization of gender in European politics. We wanted to take a broad, systematic look at it. 👇🧵

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❗ Important limitation: measuring positions computationally remains difficult. Opposition to gender equality does not necessarily appear as an explicit negative sentence. It can work through framing, discourse or selective appropriation—and may be more visible in political communication.

So I see the paper as an important step, not an endpoint. Next for MGA: further improve the measurement strategy and ultimately make the repository, dataset and models publicly available for other researchers to use, test and improve. 📄 doi.org/10.3389/fpos...

doi.orgFrontiers | Mapping party competition on gender-related issues in EuropeGender-related issues have become increasingly contentious in European politics, but comparative research on how parties address them remains limited. Existi...

📢 New publication out! Mapping party competition on gender-related issues in Europe There has been growing discussion about the politicization of gender in European politics. We wanted to take a broad, systematic look at it. 👇🧵

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Left-wing, green and, to a lesser extent, liberal parties tend to be more attentive and supportive on a wide range of issues. Christian democratic parties pay particular attention to care, welfare, and family-related issues. Radical right-wing parties tend to be the least supportive.

📢 New publication out! Mapping party competition on gender-related issues in Europe There has been growing discussion about the politicization of gender in European politics. We wanted to take a broad, systematic look at it. 👇🧵

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From 412 manually coded manifestos, we use transformer-based topic classification + zero-shot stance classification. This extends the analysis to 1,972 manifestos, 511 parties, 29 European countries and more than six decades of party competition, from 1961 to 2025.

🔍 What do we find? Gender-related issues have become substantially more prominent in European party manifestos over time, although with important differences across topics. And it is not just the amount of attention that has changed. The range of issues has expanded too.

📢 New publication out! Mapping party competition on gender-related issues in Europe There has been growing discussion about the politicization of gender in European politics. We wanted to take a broad, systematic look at it. 👇🧵

📢 The Euromanifesto Study 2024 Documents are now available! We collected, checked and systematised electoral programmes and campaign materials from across Europe for the 2024 European Parliament elections. A new resource for studying the 2024 EP campaign 🧵

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📢 The Euromanifesto Study 2024 Documents are now available! We collected, checked and systematised electoral programmes and campaign materials from across Europe for the 2024 European Parliament elections. A new resource for studying the 2024 EP campaign 🧵

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What does the corpus include? 📄 Full election manifestos 📑 Shorter electoral programmes 🗳️ Other relevant campaign material where no comparable programme was available Plus metadata on parties, electoral lists, document type, source, vote shares and more.

📢 The Euromanifesto Study 2024 Documents are now available! We collected, checked and systematised electoral programmes and campaign materials from across Europe for the 2024 European Parliament elections. A new resource for studying the 2024 EP campaign 🧵

The corpus covers 233 of the 268 electoral lists recorded in the official 2024 EP election results, across 25 EU countries. In the countries covered, the documents represent on average more than 92% of valid votes.

Giuseppe Carteny reposted

Under a Binface government, anyone who doesn’t accept human-made climate change as fact will be sent back to school, from Year 1 right the way to A Levels, to see if anything goes in the second time round. #VoteBinface

Giuseppe Carteny reposted

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Nonetheless, our study offers a complete account of how the relative weight of ideological and immigration attitudes reshaped voting probabilities inside Italy’s right-wing coalition — suggesting ideological sorting rather than contagion.

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Examining the coalition reveals a mechanism: Anti-immigration voters previously voted for moderate parties, and then moved towards radical ones. This indicates a form of ideological sorting rather than a clear radicalisation of the centre-right electorate as a whole.

❗Limitations: In this study we rely on cross-sectional data. Panel data for the Italian electorate are limited in scope and depth, meaning we cannot track inter-individual change (i.e., radicalisation) and must rely on aggregate proxies. Moreover, we cannot and don't make any causal claim.

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Anti-immigration sentiment has gained explanatory power, especially in 2022. These attitudes have become a stronger and more independent from ideological self-placement – this growth wouldn’t appear without controlling for left-right self-placement.

The correlation between ideological self-placement and voting choice did not increase linearly over time. For the electorate of the moderate-right-dominated coalition, being on the right has long mattered, and it remains almost equally important under today's radical-led coalition.

Italy is a unique case in Europe: since the mid-1990s, radical and centre-right parties have governed together repeatedly, and since 2018 the balance of power has flipped — the radical right now dominates the coalition.

We expected two forces to increasingly shape coalition support over time: - stronger right-wing ideological identification, - and growing anti-immigration attitudes. If both were rising, this would point toward a radicalisation of the coalition’s electorate. But we find a more complex picture.

Giuseppe Carteny reposted